[h=1]How to bet Champions League, Europa League semi-finals[/h]James EasthamSpecial to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
The Champions League and Europa League semifinals get under way this week. In Champions League play, Manchester City meet Real Madrid, while Atletico Madrid takes on Bayern Munich. On the Europa side, Shakhtar Donetsk battle Sevilla, while Villarreal squares off against Liverpool.
ESPN Chalk handicapper James Eastham highlights the best value picks for every match.
Note: Asian handicap betting eliminates the draw and provides the possibility of getting your stakes back (depending on the bet you place). For example, should you back a team 0 Asian handicap, your stakes will be returned if the game ends in a draw (as the handicap has been equaled). If you back a team -1.0 Asian handicap and the team you've backed wins by a single goal, your stakes will be returned (as the handicap has been equaled). This "safety net" of having your stakes returned is the primary difference between Asian handicap and handicap betting.
[h=2]Tuesday[/h][h=2]Champions League[/h]Manchester City vs. Real Madrid
Asian handicap: Manchester City 0 (+114) vs. Real Madrid 0 (-122)
3-way line: Manchester City -192 / Real Madrid +151 / Draw +257
PickCenter public consensus moneyline pick: 26 percent Draw
Total: 2.75 (Over -110, Under +101)
For the second round running, Manchester City are underdogs, but it would be foolish to write off Manuel Pellegrini's hosts. They were better than PSG in the quarterfinals and seem to be thriving as outsiders in Europe's main competition. In recent years, there has been much focus on City and how poorly they have fared in Europe but they have almost crept up on the blindside this time.
In the quarter-finals, Real Madrid produced a remarkable second-leg comeback to eliminate Wolfsburg but their 2-0 first-leg defeat in Germany was the exception rather than the rule as regards their recent form: Zinedine Zidane's side arrive on a run of 11 victories from their last 12 matches (plus-29 goal difference) so will be confident of avoiding defeat.
The handicap and 3-way line prices look about right, making goals the smart pick. City's defence is better than many think but will struggle to shut out the visitors' formidable attack. City will be obliged to go forward if, as seems likely, they fail to keep a clean sheet and, at the other end, as Wolfsburg showed, Real's defence can crack under consistent pressure.
ESPN Chalk pick: Over 2.75 goals (-110)
[h=2]Wednesday[/h][h=2]Champions League[/h]Atletico Madrid vs. Bayern Munich
Asian handicap: Atletico Madrid 0 (+111) vs. Bayern Munich 0 (-119)
3-way line: Atletico Madrid +202 / Bayern Munich +164 / Draw +22
PickCenter public consensus moneyline pick: 29 percent Draw
Total: 2.25 (Over +113, Under -124)
Atletico Madrid may be the outsiders (with the bookmakers, at least) of the four sides left in the Champions League, but their quarter-final victory over Barcelona was the latest reminder that Diego Simeone's side are now seated permanently at Europe's top table. Finalists two years ago, they have tremendous recent experience and, far from being overawed, will relish the opportunity to test themselves against Pep Guardiola's visitors.
Bayern's progress to this stage of the competition has been unconvincing: They were close to being dumped out by Juventus in the last 16 before claiming an extra-time victory and saw off Benfica without being exceptional in the quarter-finals. Atletico ought to prove stiffer opposition and, based on what we have seen so far, there is no reason to back Bayern (although it's worth remembering that Atletico needed penalties to get past unfancied PSV Eindhoven in the last 16).
Goals is the most appealing betting market: Atletico are well-known for their miserly defence but Bayern have been high-scoring on the road all season. The visitors have found the net in four of five away games in this competition, averaging 1.8 goals a game in those matches. Odds-against overs is the pick.
ESPN Chalk pick: Over 2.25 goals (+113)
[h=2]Thursday[/h][h=2]Europa League[/h]Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Sevilla
Asian handicap: Shakhtar Donetsk 0 (-105) vs. Sevilla 0 (-103)
3-way line: Shakhtar Donetsk +172 / Sevilla +175 / Draw +246
Total: 2.5 (Over +100, Under -111)
The market appears to underestimate Shakhtar Donetsk, the Europa League outsiders. The Ukrainians' record in the knockout phase is 5-0-1 and they have kept two clean sheets in three home matches (0-0 vs Schalke, 3-1 vs. Anderlecht, 4-0 vs Braga).
Sevilla are favourites to get through this tie but may struggle to impose themselves on Shakhtar, in the first leg at least: The visitors' knockout-round away record is 1-1-1 and they needed penalties to get past Athletic Bilbao in the last round. Sevilla are smart European operators -- they have won this tournament in each of the past two seasons -- but five defeats in their last eight matches (2-5-1) in all competitions will have damaged confidence and just one win in 12 away games against top-flight opposition in all competitions (1-5-6) suggests victory may be out of reach this week.
The draw and Shakhtar Donetsk on the Asian handicap are the bets to consider.
ESPN chalk pick: Shakhtar Donetsk 0 Asian handicap (-105)
Villarreal vs. Liverpool
Asian handicap: Villarreal 0 (-126) vs. Liverpool 0 (+114)
3-way line: Villarreal +156 / Liverpool +204 / Draw +234
Total: 2.25 (Over +102, Under -114)
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</article>There are a couple of reasons to believe the Total line has been set too low on this game. The first is that Liverpool are defensively erratic. True, they recorded a creditable 1-1 draw at Borussia Dortmund in the last round of this competition thanks in part to a decent defensive showing, but more generally their back line has exhibited weaknesses on several occasions: They have conceded in eight of their past 10 games in all competitions and 10 of 13 away games in all competitions this year.
Away from home, Liverpool are a dangerous attacking side as they showed not only in Dortmund but also in scoring in 10 of their last 12 away games. Liverpool's strengths and flaws alone point towards a high-scoring encounter, while Villarreal have scored in all six home games in this competition (average 1.83 goals per game) and will be confident of continuing that run here but may struggle to shut out the visitors at the other end.
ESPN Chalk pick: Over 2.25 goals (+102)
James Eastham is a soccer betting specialist for the Hong Kong Jockey Club and Betfair. He also worked previously as an EPL tipster for The New Paper (Singapore) and The Guardian Online (UK).
ESPN INSIDER
The Champions League and Europa League semifinals get under way this week. In Champions League play, Manchester City meet Real Madrid, while Atletico Madrid takes on Bayern Munich. On the Europa side, Shakhtar Donetsk battle Sevilla, while Villarreal squares off against Liverpool.
ESPN Chalk handicapper James Eastham highlights the best value picks for every match.
Note: Asian handicap betting eliminates the draw and provides the possibility of getting your stakes back (depending on the bet you place). For example, should you back a team 0 Asian handicap, your stakes will be returned if the game ends in a draw (as the handicap has been equaled). If you back a team -1.0 Asian handicap and the team you've backed wins by a single goal, your stakes will be returned (as the handicap has been equaled). This "safety net" of having your stakes returned is the primary difference between Asian handicap and handicap betting.
[h=2]Tuesday[/h][h=2]Champions League[/h]Manchester City vs. Real Madrid
Asian handicap: Manchester City 0 (+114) vs. Real Madrid 0 (-122)
3-way line: Manchester City -192 / Real Madrid +151 / Draw +257
PickCenter public consensus moneyline pick: 26 percent Draw
Total: 2.75 (Over -110, Under +101)
For the second round running, Manchester City are underdogs, but it would be foolish to write off Manuel Pellegrini's hosts. They were better than PSG in the quarterfinals and seem to be thriving as outsiders in Europe's main competition. In recent years, there has been much focus on City and how poorly they have fared in Europe but they have almost crept up on the blindside this time.
In the quarter-finals, Real Madrid produced a remarkable second-leg comeback to eliminate Wolfsburg but their 2-0 first-leg defeat in Germany was the exception rather than the rule as regards their recent form: Zinedine Zidane's side arrive on a run of 11 victories from their last 12 matches (plus-29 goal difference) so will be confident of avoiding defeat.
The handicap and 3-way line prices look about right, making goals the smart pick. City's defence is better than many think but will struggle to shut out the visitors' formidable attack. City will be obliged to go forward if, as seems likely, they fail to keep a clean sheet and, at the other end, as Wolfsburg showed, Real's defence can crack under consistent pressure.
ESPN Chalk pick: Over 2.75 goals (-110)
[h=2]Wednesday[/h][h=2]Champions League[/h]Atletico Madrid vs. Bayern Munich
Asian handicap: Atletico Madrid 0 (+111) vs. Bayern Munich 0 (-119)
3-way line: Atletico Madrid +202 / Bayern Munich +164 / Draw +22
PickCenter public consensus moneyline pick: 29 percent Draw
Total: 2.25 (Over +113, Under -124)
Atletico Madrid may be the outsiders (with the bookmakers, at least) of the four sides left in the Champions League, but their quarter-final victory over Barcelona was the latest reminder that Diego Simeone's side are now seated permanently at Europe's top table. Finalists two years ago, they have tremendous recent experience and, far from being overawed, will relish the opportunity to test themselves against Pep Guardiola's visitors.
Bayern's progress to this stage of the competition has been unconvincing: They were close to being dumped out by Juventus in the last 16 before claiming an extra-time victory and saw off Benfica without being exceptional in the quarter-finals. Atletico ought to prove stiffer opposition and, based on what we have seen so far, there is no reason to back Bayern (although it's worth remembering that Atletico needed penalties to get past unfancied PSV Eindhoven in the last 16).
Goals is the most appealing betting market: Atletico are well-known for their miserly defence but Bayern have been high-scoring on the road all season. The visitors have found the net in four of five away games in this competition, averaging 1.8 goals a game in those matches. Odds-against overs is the pick.
ESPN Chalk pick: Over 2.25 goals (+113)
[h=2]Thursday[/h][h=2]Europa League[/h]Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Sevilla
Asian handicap: Shakhtar Donetsk 0 (-105) vs. Sevilla 0 (-103)
3-way line: Shakhtar Donetsk +172 / Sevilla +175 / Draw +246
Total: 2.5 (Over +100, Under -111)
The market appears to underestimate Shakhtar Donetsk, the Europa League outsiders. The Ukrainians' record in the knockout phase is 5-0-1 and they have kept two clean sheets in three home matches (0-0 vs Schalke, 3-1 vs. Anderlecht, 4-0 vs Braga).
Sevilla are favourites to get through this tie but may struggle to impose themselves on Shakhtar, in the first leg at least: The visitors' knockout-round away record is 1-1-1 and they needed penalties to get past Athletic Bilbao in the last round. Sevilla are smart European operators -- they have won this tournament in each of the past two seasons -- but five defeats in their last eight matches (2-5-1) in all competitions will have damaged confidence and just one win in 12 away games against top-flight opposition in all competitions (1-5-6) suggests victory may be out of reach this week.
The draw and Shakhtar Donetsk on the Asian handicap are the bets to consider.
ESPN chalk pick: Shakhtar Donetsk 0 Asian handicap (-105)
Villarreal vs. Liverpool
Asian handicap: Villarreal 0 (-126) vs. Liverpool 0 (+114)
3-way line: Villarreal +156 / Liverpool +204 / Draw +234
Total: 2.25 (Over +102, Under -114)
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</article>There are a couple of reasons to believe the Total line has been set too low on this game. The first is that Liverpool are defensively erratic. True, they recorded a creditable 1-1 draw at Borussia Dortmund in the last round of this competition thanks in part to a decent defensive showing, but more generally their back line has exhibited weaknesses on several occasions: They have conceded in eight of their past 10 games in all competitions and 10 of 13 away games in all competitions this year.
Away from home, Liverpool are a dangerous attacking side as they showed not only in Dortmund but also in scoring in 10 of their last 12 away games. Liverpool's strengths and flaws alone point towards a high-scoring encounter, while Villarreal have scored in all six home games in this competition (average 1.83 goals per game) and will be confident of continuing that run here but may struggle to shut out the visitors at the other end.
ESPN Chalk pick: Over 2.25 goals (+102)
James Eastham is a soccer betting specialist for the Hong Kong Jockey Club and Betfair. He also worked previously as an EPL tipster for The New Paper (Singapore) and The Guardian Online (UK).
