Week one I felt strongly about Buffalo +5.5 against KC. Last week I felt equally as strong with Detroit -9 against KC. This week I am straying from my predictions of KC having an extreme down year and moving to a team I am absolutely drooling to bet against. I think there is a very large betting opportunity here I am taking full advantage of it. I know I am going against ALOT of people here.
Kansas City, Indianapolis, Miami, St. Louis, Minnesota, Seattle.
Is anyone talking positively about any of these teams? Have you heard one good thing ANYWHERE about any of these teams? All I have heard is how, Indianapolis is a 4 win team without Manning, Kansas City is the worst team in the league, loaded with injuries and lacking talent. Miami is a flawed system with a useless quarterback. St. Louis is St. Louis. Minnesota chokes late and is nothing but trouble on offense. Seattle is the worst team in the NFC West, which subsequently is the worst division in football and cant score a single point.
BURY THEM, SEASON IS OVER.
Yet, when it comes to CAROLINA who HAS THE SAME RECORD AS THESE SIX TEAMS, all of the sudden were talking about one of the most exciting and best teams in the NFL. Cam Newton is one of the best quarterbacks in the league and is a shoe in to break all sorts of records, and hell, if teams take away the pass well he is going to run for 150 yards and break records with his feet.
WHAT!?
Just a few weeks ago everyone was burying Cam Newton saying he could never play at an NFL level. Now, he goes out and has two big passing weeks and all of the sudden he is the biggest news in the NFL. Did nobody notice that he has more INT's then he does TD's? Did nobody notice that every single one of his passes has been to either a safety valve tight end/running back or a safe sideline route to Smith. Did nobody notice that every time those routes were taken away he was AT BEST a very below average quarterback. I can remember one series in particular against Green Bay where he had Smith in coverage and his two safety valves taken away on three straight plays. He went incomplete, incomplete and interception. Andy Dalton in Cincinnati has thrown for the same number of touchdowns as Newton through two weeks, with ZERO interceptions. Both of Dalton's games have been on the road in Cleveland and in Denver. There are eleven quarterbacks with a better passer rating then Newton through two weeks of the season. Hell, that does not matter because Newton is saying all the right things in press conferences and really believes that he can win and succeed at the pro level. ESPN, NFL Network, CBS, name a network, they have been absolutely POUNDING this kid into everyone watching. The hype meter on Newton right now is OFF THE CHARTS. More people are talking about Newton over Tom Brady. What kind of world are we living in? This is the only thing that any of us are hearing about, and apparently all anyone is betting on.
Now, I do not need Covers or Vegas Insider or any "claimed" consensus website to tell me how the public is betting. Mainly because these numbers are completely false and really have no relation to anything and are for advertisement and promotion purposes more then anything. I can simply tell by looking forum to forum and base a very strong opinion based on the extreme media attention that Carolina and Newton have been getting that the volume on this line is EXTREMELY one sided in favor of the Panthers. Carolina has been a favorite once in the past 25+ games. Never in my entire life (15+ years of NFL betting) have I seen everyone, and I mean everyone so excited and willing to blindly bet an 0-2 team coming off a 2-14 season the year before with no major changes or improvements. There is a crazy perception on this team like nothing I have seen before. Between the media and the hype, people have got the impression that Carolina is a good team this year. For example, today at work (Golf Course Greens keeper) I was talking with a co worker of mine about who looks good this week. I said I like Jacksonville to beat up on the Panthers. His response to me was wow, aren't the Panthers really good this year.
NO! They are an 0-2 football team who have an extremely good chance at going 0-7! After they lose this week to Jacksonville they go to Chicago, home to New Orleans, in Atlanta (0-6) then home to the upstart Redskins. That is screaming 0-7 start, their worst start ever as a team. Carolina this week is a bookmakers DREAM. Everyone is talking about how good Cam Newton is going to be and how well this team is going to do. This line is an absolute gift. Carolina should not be favored against anyone in this entire league. The fact that they are favored against this Jacksonville team is bizarre.
Anyone taking stock in how the Panthers matched up against the Packers last week needs to give their head a shake. First of all, we have seen the bounce-back/rebound theory at its finest through two weeks this season. Green Bay coming off a Superbowl victory playing at home on Thursday to open up against New Orleans was one of the most thrilling games we will see all year. They then had an extra three days off before traveling to the worst team in the NFL from a season ago to play a road game before a rivalry division game and rematch of last years playoff game against Chicago. If you think you saw the true Packers team in the first half of that game, your kidding yourself. Furthermore, that box score is VERY misleading. The Panthers did take a 13-7 lead into halftime. What it does not show is the unbalance and struggle the Panthers had in the Red Zone. The Panthers were 2:1 on pass run inside the Red Zone. As we have all seen in the past, teams that are one dimensional, almost always to the pass get burned in the Red Zone. How many times have we seen teams fly down the field and go 70 yards in four plays then end up three and out from the 10? These yards and stats are misleading. As soon as the yards count and as soon as the angles change and the defense can focus on the pass, the Panthers become predictable and easy to stop. Also as we have seen in both games the Panthers have played this season, as soon as the other team "wakes up" after spotting the Panthers a touchdown plus lead, the tides turn on the Panthers. Green Bay went into the half down 13-7 and came out with four scores in the third quarter on four drives. The Packers really had this game won by two touchdowns and only played 1.5 quarters. The last touchdown by Cam Newton was on a four yard run with 30 seconds to play on a drive littered with preventive prevent defense by the Packers. Like I said, unless you watched both of these games you do not have a true feel for the Panthers. People who are betting the box scores and betting the hype (90% of bettors?) have a false perception and are going to get burned.
Another thing you will notice if you watched the games is that the Panthers have been owned in the trenches for seven of eight quarters this season. The supposed dynamic duo of Williams and Stewart have rushed for 74 yards on 30 carries. This is not going to change this week as the Jags have allowed sixth best or 3.4 yards per rush defensively and fifth in total rush yards at 72 per game. Unlike Carolina you can put stock in these stats. Jacksonville has shut down the best rusher in the league in week one (Chris Johnson) and shut down the notorious smash mouth pound the ball up the middle Jets on the road last week (despite the loss). There is not a single thing that leads me to believe that Carolina will not yet against be extremely one dimensional. First week in the NFL, okay Carolina's offense is a surprise. Second week, adjustments were made. Ignore the first half, when the Packers woke up they were on a different level then the Panthers. Third week, I do not care if you have the Toronto Argonauts from the CFL on the field, these coaches and coordinators in the NFL are all way too good to fool for a third week. The gimmick is up this week.
Jacksonville is going to have a hay day running the ball this week. Carolina has two rookies, one was just signed to start on defense. MJD is at full go this week and will really have his say as to how far he wants to run. The Jags hung 163 yards on the Titans and 113 on the Jets last week. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a number higher then either of those on Sunday. For those giving the Blane Gabbert rookie argument, your all suckers to the hype of Newton. "Well it is Gabberts first ever NFL Start!" CAM NEWTON made his first ever start TWO SUNDAYS ago. If Gabbert comes out and throws for 400 yards (very unlikely but against this Carolina team, possible) and then puts 400 more up against the Saints in a let down game that even 5% of the people backing Newton right now will even notice? No chance in hell. We are talking about two games more experience here guys, come on. Pre draft Gabbert was expected to be the best quarterback coming out of the draft. Where did all of that hype go to? All signs coming out of Jacksonville is showing that he is more then ready and more then capable of starting in this league. What a better team to do it against then the Panthers. Combined with this running attack that Jacksonville has, he should be more then comfortable in the pocket throwing against this secondary. Don't expect huge things, but I know Gabbert is capable of keeping the ball safe and hanging a win on the board for his team. Two things god, err Newton is incapable of doing thus far.
The perception on this game is absolutely RIDICULOUS and this line is setting up for an absolute blood bath. A friend of mine who is a bookmaker told me that 8 of every 10 bets he took last week had the Ravens involved in it, I expect this game to be even higher. How did the Ravens do last week? Cam Newton fails to show up this week, and come Monday there will be a lot of sprained ankles from people jumping off the bandwagon. Carolina loses this game, and loses each of their next four and rolls to an 0-7 start.
Three points, a free hook. Ill take that all day long.
Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5
(<)<-VJ
Kansas City, Indianapolis, Miami, St. Louis, Minnesota, Seattle.
Is anyone talking positively about any of these teams? Have you heard one good thing ANYWHERE about any of these teams? All I have heard is how, Indianapolis is a 4 win team without Manning, Kansas City is the worst team in the league, loaded with injuries and lacking talent. Miami is a flawed system with a useless quarterback. St. Louis is St. Louis. Minnesota chokes late and is nothing but trouble on offense. Seattle is the worst team in the NFC West, which subsequently is the worst division in football and cant score a single point.
BURY THEM, SEASON IS OVER.
Yet, when it comes to CAROLINA who HAS THE SAME RECORD AS THESE SIX TEAMS, all of the sudden were talking about one of the most exciting and best teams in the NFL. Cam Newton is one of the best quarterbacks in the league and is a shoe in to break all sorts of records, and hell, if teams take away the pass well he is going to run for 150 yards and break records with his feet.
WHAT!?
Just a few weeks ago everyone was burying Cam Newton saying he could never play at an NFL level. Now, he goes out and has two big passing weeks and all of the sudden he is the biggest news in the NFL. Did nobody notice that he has more INT's then he does TD's? Did nobody notice that every single one of his passes has been to either a safety valve tight end/running back or a safe sideline route to Smith. Did nobody notice that every time those routes were taken away he was AT BEST a very below average quarterback. I can remember one series in particular against Green Bay where he had Smith in coverage and his two safety valves taken away on three straight plays. He went incomplete, incomplete and interception. Andy Dalton in Cincinnati has thrown for the same number of touchdowns as Newton through two weeks, with ZERO interceptions. Both of Dalton's games have been on the road in Cleveland and in Denver. There are eleven quarterbacks with a better passer rating then Newton through two weeks of the season. Hell, that does not matter because Newton is saying all the right things in press conferences and really believes that he can win and succeed at the pro level. ESPN, NFL Network, CBS, name a network, they have been absolutely POUNDING this kid into everyone watching. The hype meter on Newton right now is OFF THE CHARTS. More people are talking about Newton over Tom Brady. What kind of world are we living in? This is the only thing that any of us are hearing about, and apparently all anyone is betting on.
Now, I do not need Covers or Vegas Insider or any "claimed" consensus website to tell me how the public is betting. Mainly because these numbers are completely false and really have no relation to anything and are for advertisement and promotion purposes more then anything. I can simply tell by looking forum to forum and base a very strong opinion based on the extreme media attention that Carolina and Newton have been getting that the volume on this line is EXTREMELY one sided in favor of the Panthers. Carolina has been a favorite once in the past 25+ games. Never in my entire life (15+ years of NFL betting) have I seen everyone, and I mean everyone so excited and willing to blindly bet an 0-2 team coming off a 2-14 season the year before with no major changes or improvements. There is a crazy perception on this team like nothing I have seen before. Between the media and the hype, people have got the impression that Carolina is a good team this year. For example, today at work (Golf Course Greens keeper) I was talking with a co worker of mine about who looks good this week. I said I like Jacksonville to beat up on the Panthers. His response to me was wow, aren't the Panthers really good this year.
NO! They are an 0-2 football team who have an extremely good chance at going 0-7! After they lose this week to Jacksonville they go to Chicago, home to New Orleans, in Atlanta (0-6) then home to the upstart Redskins. That is screaming 0-7 start, their worst start ever as a team. Carolina this week is a bookmakers DREAM. Everyone is talking about how good Cam Newton is going to be and how well this team is going to do. This line is an absolute gift. Carolina should not be favored against anyone in this entire league. The fact that they are favored against this Jacksonville team is bizarre.
Anyone taking stock in how the Panthers matched up against the Packers last week needs to give their head a shake. First of all, we have seen the bounce-back/rebound theory at its finest through two weeks this season. Green Bay coming off a Superbowl victory playing at home on Thursday to open up against New Orleans was one of the most thrilling games we will see all year. They then had an extra three days off before traveling to the worst team in the NFL from a season ago to play a road game before a rivalry division game and rematch of last years playoff game against Chicago. If you think you saw the true Packers team in the first half of that game, your kidding yourself. Furthermore, that box score is VERY misleading. The Panthers did take a 13-7 lead into halftime. What it does not show is the unbalance and struggle the Panthers had in the Red Zone. The Panthers were 2:1 on pass run inside the Red Zone. As we have all seen in the past, teams that are one dimensional, almost always to the pass get burned in the Red Zone. How many times have we seen teams fly down the field and go 70 yards in four plays then end up three and out from the 10? These yards and stats are misleading. As soon as the yards count and as soon as the angles change and the defense can focus on the pass, the Panthers become predictable and easy to stop. Also as we have seen in both games the Panthers have played this season, as soon as the other team "wakes up" after spotting the Panthers a touchdown plus lead, the tides turn on the Panthers. Green Bay went into the half down 13-7 and came out with four scores in the third quarter on four drives. The Packers really had this game won by two touchdowns and only played 1.5 quarters. The last touchdown by Cam Newton was on a four yard run with 30 seconds to play on a drive littered with preventive prevent defense by the Packers. Like I said, unless you watched both of these games you do not have a true feel for the Panthers. People who are betting the box scores and betting the hype (90% of bettors?) have a false perception and are going to get burned.
Another thing you will notice if you watched the games is that the Panthers have been owned in the trenches for seven of eight quarters this season. The supposed dynamic duo of Williams and Stewart have rushed for 74 yards on 30 carries. This is not going to change this week as the Jags have allowed sixth best or 3.4 yards per rush defensively and fifth in total rush yards at 72 per game. Unlike Carolina you can put stock in these stats. Jacksonville has shut down the best rusher in the league in week one (Chris Johnson) and shut down the notorious smash mouth pound the ball up the middle Jets on the road last week (despite the loss). There is not a single thing that leads me to believe that Carolina will not yet against be extremely one dimensional. First week in the NFL, okay Carolina's offense is a surprise. Second week, adjustments were made. Ignore the first half, when the Packers woke up they were on a different level then the Panthers. Third week, I do not care if you have the Toronto Argonauts from the CFL on the field, these coaches and coordinators in the NFL are all way too good to fool for a third week. The gimmick is up this week.
Jacksonville is going to have a hay day running the ball this week. Carolina has two rookies, one was just signed to start on defense. MJD is at full go this week and will really have his say as to how far he wants to run. The Jags hung 163 yards on the Titans and 113 on the Jets last week. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a number higher then either of those on Sunday. For those giving the Blane Gabbert rookie argument, your all suckers to the hype of Newton. "Well it is Gabberts first ever NFL Start!" CAM NEWTON made his first ever start TWO SUNDAYS ago. If Gabbert comes out and throws for 400 yards (very unlikely but against this Carolina team, possible) and then puts 400 more up against the Saints in a let down game that even 5% of the people backing Newton right now will even notice? No chance in hell. We are talking about two games more experience here guys, come on. Pre draft Gabbert was expected to be the best quarterback coming out of the draft. Where did all of that hype go to? All signs coming out of Jacksonville is showing that he is more then ready and more then capable of starting in this league. What a better team to do it against then the Panthers. Combined with this running attack that Jacksonville has, he should be more then comfortable in the pocket throwing against this secondary. Don't expect huge things, but I know Gabbert is capable of keeping the ball safe and hanging a win on the board for his team. Two things god, err Newton is incapable of doing thus far.
The perception on this game is absolutely RIDICULOUS and this line is setting up for an absolute blood bath. A friend of mine who is a bookmaker told me that 8 of every 10 bets he took last week had the Ravens involved in it, I expect this game to be even higher. How did the Ravens do last week? Cam Newton fails to show up this week, and come Monday there will be a lot of sprained ankles from people jumping off the bandwagon. Carolina loses this game, and loses each of their next four and rolls to an 0-7 start.
Three points, a free hook. Ill take that all day long.
Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5
(<)<-VJ
