How a 15-year trend points to a Texas Tech title
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Virginia enters the national championship game as a very slight favorite over Texas Tech, but if the Cavaliers do end up cutting down the nets, they'll be different in at least one respect than any of the past 15 title winners.
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Starting with Connecticut in 2004 and running right up through Villanova last April, every eventual national champion has entered the title game with a better per-possession scoring margin in that year's NCAA tournament than the opponent.
In 2019, that rule of thumb points to the Red Raiders. Chris Beard's men have outscored Northern Kentucky, Buffalo, Michigan, Gonzaga and Michigan State by 0.21 points per possession.
Conversely, you might have noticed that the Hoos have had to win a close game or two in order to get this far. Sure enough, Tony Bennett's men have outscored Gardner-Webb, Oklahoma, Oregon, Purdue and Auburn by a more modest margin of 0.12 points per possession.
There, that's settled. You don't even have to watch the game now, because we know Beard's team is going to win, right?
Not exactly. This 15-year thing is just as much an unlikely streak as it is an iron law of postseason basketball. Think of all the things that had to happen to keep this rule of thumb looking so smart.
For starters, Mario Chalmers had to hit an incredible game-tying 3 for Kansas at the end of regulation against Memphis in the 2008 national title game or else the Jayhawks would have lost the game despite carrying a better per-possession scoring margin in tournament play than the Tigers.
Or take 2017. North Carolina and Gonzaga arrived at the championship game with scoring margins that were almost exactly the same. Had the Bulldogs merely sunk another basket or two over the course of the previous five games and then gone on to lose to the Tar Heels, this streak would have ended then and there.
So, make of this trend what you will. It's hardly novel to suggest that the team that has been playing better over the previous five games tends to prevail in the sixth one. Then again, 15 correct picks in a row for 15 years is quite a run, even for a commonsense tendency.
Put even more skeptically, this streak is bound to be snapped someday, just as Syracuse cut it down to size when the Orange prevailed against Kansas in the 2003 title game. Besides, there's at least one other streak that points in the opposite direction.
You've likely heard that no team has gone on to win the national title after losing its first game in the postseason -- and Texas Tech was indeed defeated 79-74 by West Virginia in the Big 12 tournament quarterfinals. Virginia, on the other hand, beat NC State before falling to Florida State in the ACC tournament semifinals.
This means that one of these two predictive rules is about to fail. "Tournament scoring margin" and "winning the first postseason game" have both been trusty guides until now, but that era will come to an end in 2019.
In light of that fact, it's good to know that at least one streak will still be going strong no matter who wins the game: Every season since 2003-04, the national champion has been ranked in the top 12 of that season's Week 6 AP poll.
That sounds pretty arbitrary, but when it comes to predicting the national champion, Week 6 actually outperforms any other AP poll right up to the one that comes out after Selection Sunday.
There are very good reasons why Week 6 is so good at looking ahead, but for now, just know that Texas Tech and Virginia both pass that test. In fact, the entire 2019 Final Four was ranked in the top 12 back in December. Remember to pay close attention to the Week 6 poll for 2019-20 when it is released eight months from now.
In the meantime, if you feel like riding the "tournament scoring margin" wave for one more year, the Red Raiders are definitely the pick. Good luck.
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Virginia enters the national championship game as a very slight favorite over Texas Tech, but if the Cavaliers do end up cutting down the nets, they'll be different in at least one respect than any of the past 15 title winners.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Starting with Connecticut in 2004 and running right up through Villanova last April, every eventual national champion has entered the title game with a better per-possession scoring margin in that year's NCAA tournament than the opponent.
In 2019, that rule of thumb points to the Red Raiders. Chris Beard's men have outscored Northern Kentucky, Buffalo, Michigan, Gonzaga and Michigan State by 0.21 points per possession.
Conversely, you might have noticed that the Hoos have had to win a close game or two in order to get this far. Sure enough, Tony Bennett's men have outscored Gardner-Webb, Oklahoma, Oregon, Purdue and Auburn by a more modest margin of 0.12 points per possession.
There, that's settled. You don't even have to watch the game now, because we know Beard's team is going to win, right?
Not exactly. This 15-year thing is just as much an unlikely streak as it is an iron law of postseason basketball. Think of all the things that had to happen to keep this rule of thumb looking so smart.
For starters, Mario Chalmers had to hit an incredible game-tying 3 for Kansas at the end of regulation against Memphis in the 2008 national title game or else the Jayhawks would have lost the game despite carrying a better per-possession scoring margin in tournament play than the Tigers.
Or take 2017. North Carolina and Gonzaga arrived at the championship game with scoring margins that were almost exactly the same. Had the Bulldogs merely sunk another basket or two over the course of the previous five games and then gone on to lose to the Tar Heels, this streak would have ended then and there.
So, make of this trend what you will. It's hardly novel to suggest that the team that has been playing better over the previous five games tends to prevail in the sixth one. Then again, 15 correct picks in a row for 15 years is quite a run, even for a commonsense tendency.
Put even more skeptically, this streak is bound to be snapped someday, just as Syracuse cut it down to size when the Orange prevailed against Kansas in the 2003 title game. Besides, there's at least one other streak that points in the opposite direction.
You've likely heard that no team has gone on to win the national title after losing its first game in the postseason -- and Texas Tech was indeed defeated 79-74 by West Virginia in the Big 12 tournament quarterfinals. Virginia, on the other hand, beat NC State before falling to Florida State in the ACC tournament semifinals.
This means that one of these two predictive rules is about to fail. "Tournament scoring margin" and "winning the first postseason game" have both been trusty guides until now, but that era will come to an end in 2019.
In light of that fact, it's good to know that at least one streak will still be going strong no matter who wins the game: Every season since 2003-04, the national champion has been ranked in the top 12 of that season's Week 6 AP poll.
That sounds pretty arbitrary, but when it comes to predicting the national champion, Week 6 actually outperforms any other AP poll right up to the one that comes out after Selection Sunday.
There are very good reasons why Week 6 is so good at looking ahead, but for now, just know that Texas Tech and Virginia both pass that test. In fact, the entire 2019 Final Four was ranked in the top 12 back in December. Remember to pay close attention to the Week 6 poll for 2019-20 when it is released eight months from now.
In the meantime, if you feel like riding the "tournament scoring margin" wave for one more year, the Red Raiders are definitely the pick. Good luck.
