Homedawg's Thursday Plays 123-104 (54.18%) +19.30

[homedawg]

New Mexico St always finds a way to screw me. I used to love backing them, but their youth will keep me away from them for the rest of the year. They youth brings inconsistency, and inconsistent play is the last thing you want when it comes to investing. I think NMSU may be ok if ever in the home dog role, but I will stay clear of them as favorites the rest of the way.

GL

 

[homedawg]

Homedawg, this game is circled at my book and the line has dropped to 10. What do you make of this? Obviously its circled because Duggins is injured but to have the line drop? I figure it would've gone up. If he is playing, what do you expect the line to be then. Would you play this regardless of whether he plays or not? Thanks

I don't think the line will move too much. Maybe a half point or point if news gets out he is playing. I think the line would be set around what it is now. 10 is a good number for the way the teams have performed this season. WSU is hot though, and have proved over the past few seasons that they have Butlers number. Brownell is a very good coach, and should keep this within the 10.

 

[homedawg]

3 Units

1st Half Ark St/Denver Under 49.5 -110
1st Half Wright St/Butler Under 53.5 -110

I know these are extremely low numbers, but these are 2 trends I have noticed and have followed with Wright St, and Denver. They have had low scoring first halves, and then 'over' 2nd halves.

 

[kingking]

Thanks very much HD

 

[homedawg]

Denver Pk
1st Half Denver/Ark St Under 49.5

I expect this game to be a grinder. When you put 2 styles that rely on defensive priciples, and another with working the shot clock it is hard to get any type of offensive flow established. Here is the totals of Denvers past scores in the first half

UL Lafayette 44
N. Orleans 45
UC Riverside 54
Grambling 57 - Gramling very high scoring team
Colorado St 40
Florida Atl 47
S. Dakota St 54
No Colorado 49

Because of the style of offense Denver runs it is hard to get into the game. That is my reasoning behind the low scoring first halves. The pioneers work the shot clock all the way down with the Princeton style offense. That is what allows them to compete with teams who may have them outmanned talent wise. They frustrate bigger, quicker teams, especially at home where they use the altitude in making teams work on defense for the full 35 seconds. They have also had Arkansas St number the past 2 seasons. Denver wasn't that good the past 2 years, but they beat Arkansas St in each by at least 7 points. In both games they Held Ark St below 40% shooting. They have also won 5 straight at home, including wins over S. Dakota ST, Florida Atl, Col St, UC Riverside. However it may have been their 2 losses in their past 2 games that have convinced me that this team can compete. They have struggled on the road since they entered the D1 level of play, but they just went on the road and led N Orleans, and UL Lafayette for almost the entire game before falling in the end. Before they were just getting blown out of the water on the road. The fact that they are competing now shows the strides that coach Scott has made with the program. Those games that they blow on the road, they usually finish off at home. I actually got to watch their past game at UL Lafayette. They were at a huge disadvantage physical wise against the Cajuns, but they executed their offense and could have won if they caught a few breaks. The refs weren't helping them and when you don't match up physically you can't overcome that. I was very impressed with the tenacity in which they played with, and the execution of their offense. The more reptitions they get with this Princeton style offense that requires reads and cuts, the better they will be. I think their improvement is starting to show.
As for Arkansas St they are a tough defensive oriented team that should keep this game very low scoring. When you have 2 teams that don't want to push the tempo and are content in running their offense and digging in on defense you are in store for an extremely low scoring game. Here are some 1st half totals against teams similar to Denver. These are teams that run a slow offense, and don't force the tempo
N. Orleans 49
Little Rock 41
Fla Intl 54
Missouri St 55
Indiana St 48

Arkansas St has also lost their past 3 road games. They haven't shown they can go on the road and come away with a win. Also one of their strengths, rebounding, has turned into a weakness come conference play. They are -2.3 on the glass their first 3 conference games, and if they aren't able to dominate the glass against Denver they don't have a shot in winning. They shoot under 40% on the road in conference play, and expect them to lose in a low scoring game.

 

[homedawg]

1st Half Wright St/Butler Under 53.5

I made a play earlier in the year on a Wright St first half total that was set very low, and easily cashed. This has been a trend with this team; 1st half under, 2nd half over. Here are Wright St's totals for their past few games in the first half
Youngstown 53
Cleveland St 49
Murray St 43
So Fla 35 - Won on this earlier
Oral Roberts 41

Butler has scored a little bit more, but they tend to adapt to their opponent. If the team they are playing wants to grind it out they will grind. They have great defensive fundamentals and can compete on that end of the floor with anybody.

Valpo 62
UAB 65 - High scoring team
Xavier 53
Ohio St 52

This game will be full of intensity especially at the start. This one should get off to a slow start.

 

[seriousaddiction]

Denver Pk
1st Half Denver/Ark St Under 49.5

I expect this game to be a grinder. When you put 2 styles that rely on defensive priciples, and another with working the shot clock it is hard to get any type of offensive flow established. Here is the totals of Denvers past scores in the first half

UL Lafayette 44
N. Orleans 45
UC Riverside 54
Grambling 57 - Gramling very high scoring team
Colorado St 40
Florida Atl 47
S. Dakota St 54
No Colorado 49





Because of the style of offense Denver runs it is hard to get into the game. That is my reasoning behind the low scoring first halves. The pioneers work the shot clock all the way down with the Princeton style offense. That is what allows them to compete with teams who may have them outmanned talent wise. They frustrate bigger, quicker teams, especially at home where they use the altitude in making teams work on defense for the full 35 seconds. They have also had Arkansas St number the past 2 seasons. Denver wasn't that good the past 2 years, but they beat Arkansas St in each by at least 7 points. In both games they Held Ark St below 40% shooting. They have also won 5 straight at home, including wins over S. Dakota ST, Florida Atl, Col St, UC Riverside. However it may have been their 2 losses in their past 2 games that have convinced me that this team can compete. They have struggled on the road since they entered the D1 level of play, but they just went on the road and led N Orleans, and UL Lafayette for almost the entire game before falling in the end. Before they were just getting blown out of the water on the road. The fact that they are competing now shows the strides that coach Scott has made with the program. Those games that they blow on the road, they usually finish off at home. I actually got to watch their past game at UL Lafayette. They were at a huge disadvantage physical wise against the Cajuns, but they executed their offense and could have won if they caught a few breaks. The refs weren't helping them and when you don't match up physically you can't overcome that. I was very impressed with the tenacity in which they played with, and the execution of their offense. The more reptitions they get with this Princeton style offense that requires reads and cuts, the better they will be. I think their improvement is starting to show.
As for Arkansas St they are a tough defensive oriented team that should keep this game very low scoring. When you have 2 teams that don't want to push the tempo and are content in running their offense and digging in on defense you are in store for an extremely low scoring game. Here are some 1st half totals against teams similar to Denver. These are teams that run a slow offense, and don't force the tempo
N. Orleans 49
Little Rock 41
Fla Intl 54
Missouri St 55
Indiana St 48

Arkansas St has also lost their past 3 road games. They haven't shown they can go on the road and come away with a win. Also one of their strengths, rebounding, has turned into a weakness come conference play. They are -2.3 on the glass their first 3 conference games, and if they aren't able to dominate the glass against Denver they don't have a shot in winning. They shoot under 40% on the road in conference play, and expect them to lose in a low scoring game.

Now after reading this I want someone to show me a capper here at the RX that works harder than you. It's ridiculous (a good ridiculous) how much work you put into these games. How many people on here can get this in depth about Denver. Im guessing 80% of this forum can't tell me what color jerseys the Pioneers don let alone tell me that they are a college basketball team.


Keep up the good work and lets keep the domination going. FvckuChad%^_

 

[knowthegame]

Maroon & gold........

 

[homedawg]

Pretty Tough News

Vaughn Duggins downgraded to doubtful


Just thought I would pass this along. This will still be a 2 unit play, but will stay at just that. Would have upgraded if he was going to be available, but it looks like he will sit out again.

 

[captaink]

homedawg
your take on utah st - 8

 

[homedawg]

Iowa -1.5

I like the Hawkeye's at home in this spot. This is just Minnesota's 2nd true road games, and having to play at Iowa is no easy task. Iowa shoots at a 50% clip at home, and hold opponents to 37% on def. Iowa relies so heavily on 3 point shooting that playing at home is a huge advantage. I have said countless times how important it is that shooters feel comfortable when shooting. There is no better comfort that playing at home. Minnesota is a decent team, but I don't expect them to be good enough to win consistently on the road. They really don't have a prominent scorer who can give them that bucket when they are being hit with a run and desperately need a basket. Minnesota isn't a team that can take advantage of Iowa on the glass. The Hawkeyes have trouble with big, physical teams, but Minnesota isn't that. As i said the Gophers are a nice team, but don't expect them to go on the road and win.

 

[homedawg]

homedawg
your take on utah st - 8

Kind of lean the other side. Utah St is much better at home, and having a long trip they could be in some trouble. They do run a disciplined offense and have some of the best shot selection in the country, but 8 is a lot to lay in conference on the road.

 

[stevo101]

Iowa -1.5

I like the Hawkeye's at home in this spot. This is just Minnesota's 2nd true road games, and having to play at Iowa is no easy task. Iowa shoots at a 50% clip at home, and hold opponents to 37% on def. Iowa relies so heavily on 3 point shooting that playing at home is a huge advantage. I have said countless times how important it is that shooters feel comfortable when shooting. There is no better comfort that playing at home. Minnesota is a decent team, but I don't expect them to be good enough to win consistently on the road. They really don't have a prominent scorer who can give them that bucket when they are being hit with a run and desperately need a basket. Minnesota isn't a team that can take advantage of Iowa on the glass. The Hawkeyes have trouble with big, physical teams, but Minnesota isn't that. As i said the Gophers are a nice team, but don't expect them to go on the road and win.

HD, just wanted to say thanks for all your hard work. I have been tailing most of your plays. :toast: to another winning day.

 

[cut-paste-hero]

Now after reading this I want someone to show me a capper here at the RX that works harder than you. It's ridiculous (a good ridiculous) how much work you put into these games. How many people on here can get this in depth about Denver. Im guessing 80% of this forum can't tell me what color jerseys the Pioneers don let alone tell me that they are a college basketball team.


Keep up the good work and lets keep the domination going. FvckuChad%^_

Here is 1.

It can't be easy to take your plays and put write-ups to them.

:drink:

Teddy June’s College Basketball Favorite of the Week

My 10* College Basketball Favorite of the Week is the Iowa Hawkeyes minus the points over the Minnesota Golden Gophers. I talk about overrated/overvalued teams in the market place a great deal in my write-ups and tonight we get a terrific opportunity to fade, according to my numbers, one of the most overrated/overvalued teams in the country in the Gophers. The Gophers for the 2nd straight year have jumped out of the gates fast posting 13-1 SU record and have only played 2 games away from home all year long. They won at Colorado State by one point and beat Louisville by 6 on a neutral floor. The Ville have had a disastrous start to their season where they have been very up and down so I take that win with a grain of salt. Outside of those two games their other 12 games have all been at home. Additionally their non-conference schedule was a cake walk beating the likes of Concordia St. Paul, Eastern Washington, ND State, SD State, Southeastern Louisiana and the list goes on. Meanwhile on the other side Iowa has played a solid early season schedule with wins over Kansas State, Iowa State, and Northern Iowa and losses against WVU, BC, Drake and Ohio State. They have picked up their strong home court advantage early this season posting 9-0 SU record, while stumbling the last few years, this has been a team that for many years was unbeatable at home. While they are still a program in rebuilding under Lickliter and will certainly have their ups and downs this season they are in a great spot tonight. The Hawkeyes are catching a Minnesota team making their first road trip in conference and playing in their first true road environment game this season. The key for Iowa will be getting good looks and continuing their process of the Lickliter offense that is slow, methodical and effective. It has led to good early things with the Hawkeyes shooting 47.6% from the field overall and 40.9% from the 3 point line, two staples of a Lickliter team. It is noteworthy the Gophers are 2-8-1 ATS their last 11 road games after playing 3 or more straight home games and the Hawkeyes are 5-2 ATS their last 7 games overall. I currently have this line at -1.5. My 10* College Favorite of the Week is the Iowa Hawkeyes minus the points. As always, Good Luck, Let’s make some money.


Teddy June’s College Basketball Underdog Game of the Day

My 10* College Basketball Underdog Game of the Day is the Wright State Raiders plus the points over the Butler Bulldogs. Occasionally in sports a key injury can actually help a team to rally, new players step up and players emerge as that key player sits out with the injury. Thus is the case for Wright State as they started the year 0-6 SU, 0-5 ATS and then proceeded to lose one of their better players in Vaughn Duggins to a hand injury. Then they proceeded to win two straight including a decent win against a pretty good Arkansas LR team, lost by 13 to Wake Forest in Wake as 22 point underdogs and since have reeled off 6 straight wins including wins over Oral Roberts, USF, and a solid Cleveland State team. The difference maker for them has been the maturation of stud JUCO transfer and two time JUCO all American Cory Cooperwoord. He has provided a nice post presence and a scorer for them. Additionally the play of John David Gardner who has scored in double figures in 8 of his last 10 games and is averaging 4 assists per game as well. The junior guard Todd Brown has also been key for them scoring in double figures in 4 straight games. With Duggins out the Raiders have rallied, members have fit new roles and players have stepped up to turn around their season. The Raiders have to travel to a tough place to play tonight but a place they are very familiar with. Wright State and Butler have quietly built up a nice rivalry in the Horizon the last several years with 8 of their last 10 meetings being decided in single digits. In addition to that Butlers rise to national prominence has added some spice to this matchup. The Bulldogs after losing several key players are having another solid year but playing a bit over their expected expectations. They have recently gotten into the top 25 rankings but I have them being overvalued in the betting marketplace. Their early season success has inflated this number along with their reputation in the marketplace while Wright State’s early stumbles really knock them out of the Horizon picture early on. The Raiders have dominated this series ATS wise as they are 11-1 ATS their last 12 against Butler, this simply due to the fact that every time these two teams meet up Butler is the team on the public’s radar and in turn the line is inflated to recognize that. Two slow methodical teams who play solid defense, I expect a low scoring tight affair here. I currently have this line at +10.5. My 10* College Basketball Underdog Game of the Day is the Wright State Raiders plus the points. As always, Good Luck, Let’s make some money.

 

[absolute59]

Summary of HD picks for tonight

I just thought I would put them all in one post.

3 Units

Iowa -1.5
1st Half under 49.5 Arkst/Denver
1st Half under 53.5 Wr.St./Butler

2 Units

Wright St +10.5
UCDavis -3.5
Denver Pk

Always HD thanks for the hard work and lets win some money!!!

 

[tnvolfan]

Lots of good info in your write ups. Really
appreciate you sharing with the forum.
Keep up the good work & good luck
tonight!!!

:toast:

 

[billsfan]

In honor of my 3,000 post I want to say Good Luck and go Hawkeyes!

 

[homedawg]

In honor of my 3,000 post I want to say Good Luck and go Hawkeyes!

very nice. lets go hawkeyes

:toast:

 

[Kluter24]

Thanks for the hard work this season HD, hope my Hawks dont let anyone down tonight!

 

[v3candyman]

gl tonight