Homedawg's Saturday Plays 45-38. -.55

[Gatorzace]

what is it about them that you like so much your always on them? not here to bust your balls just been watching your plays but see them in there even after they got hammered the other day

 

[jbragg10]

Kentucky -2

Even though it doesn't seem so recently, but it is hard to walk into Rupp and come out victorious. However I think Kentucky has it going in the right direction. They went to Vegas and took it to Kansas St, and West Virginia. Both were very good wins. Both teams get after it defensively so those wins prove to me that they can win games against strong defensive teams. With Jodie Meeks, and Patrick Patterson you have 2 legit stars, who can get it done from the inside and outside. The Canes will throw a lot of bodies at Patterson, but he is good enough to be able to control the paint for Kentucky. Gillepse teams always get after it on the defensive end as well. Since the VMI debacle, and UNC beating the Cats have picked it up on the defensive end. They proved against West Virginia they can win ugly by holding the Mountaineers to 43 points. I see this game being just like that. Both are physical teams. I also think they can rattle Mcklinton. He is a great offensive player, but at times he tends to get out of control and take some bad shots. The atmosphere Rupp Arena will have could have an influence on his play. I think Kentucky has right the ship so to speak after their early season struggles, and just don't see Miami coming in and giving them another loss on their home court.

One other key note is they went to North Carolina and lost by 19.
How is that good ...
well, if you take away the first 5 minutes of the game (when they pulled ahead by 15) ... UK played with them the entire game.
Michigan St. played them at home and got blown out.

Bad news is ...
Not sure if 2 starters will be playing.
Porter had 10 stitched and Harris just got out of the ER.
That is good in a way because they will lean on the more talented freshman (Liggins and Darius Miller) who have been VERY good lately.
The bad news is the lack of depth now.

Should be a good game.

 

[homedawg]

what is it about them that you like so much your always on them? not here to bust your balls just been watching your plays but see them in there even after they got hammered the other day

i think that is arkansas little rock you are referring to? either way both teams play great defense and rebound. those are 2 things i like in most when backing a team.

 

[Mr.Cover123]

I have to disagree with Kentucky especially with their injuries and the fact Miami will want to bounce back after that 2nd half collapse at home.

What do you think about ND -3.5 vs. Ohio St.?

 

[Wellwood]

So we're playing russian roulette with providence again huh? I don't know if my heart can take that team anymore and rhode island is pretty good. Will probably lay off that game. Like the Wisconsin play though.

 

[Rondawg]

Homedawg,

It is good to be back. I left for a while when my season went south last year. I am easing my way back in and put out one play tonight that was crap. Will get it back together. Liking several of your plays for Saturday. The only one that scares me is the Kentucky. Not sure of this team yet. They are a turnover waiting to happen. I would like them a lot a better if they strictly ran their o through Patterson. Meeks is too selfish in my opinion. They miss Jasper more than anybody from last years team. Just my opinion. They are at home though and that means a ton to me. Curious what Miami did on road last year? Good Luck. I may post a card today. Not sure yet.

 

[slimjd008]

Like the michigan play man!

But arkansas state? sure they play some solid D but they just beat a winless indiana state team by 2 and really have not beaten anyone worth much besides maybe ball state..

Plus missouri state just put a pretty big whooping on UALR. Ballsy bet

 

[NYOrange]

Good Luck Homedawg - 55% aint bad considering a lot of these teams are still getting back into the groove and finding their identity. I myself only have 9 (4-4-1) plays thus far on the season and will probably wait a few more weeks before I start picking up a few games daily. I have a history of kind of digging myself a hole early in the season as the teams I backed don't seem to show up (ierovidence not willing to make you any money!)

I've been watching your picks and I have a feeling once you feel out some of these teams you're going to have a very profitable New Year

 

[bigtendominator]

I have to disagree with Kentucky especially with their injuries and the fact Miami will want to bounce back after that 2nd half collapse at home.

What do you think about ND -3.5 vs. Ohio St.?

Really like ND over OSU.

 

[jbragg10]

Homedawg,
The only one that scares me is the Kentucky. Not sure of this team yet. They are a turnover waiting to happen. I would like them a lot a better if they strictly ran their o through Patterson. Meeks is too selfish in my opinion. They miss Jasper more than anybody from last years team. Just my opinion. They are at home though and that means a ton to me. Curious what Miami did on road last year? Good Luck. I may post a card today. Not sure yet.

agree and disagree.
Agree:
They are turnover machine
They need more offense to Patterson

Disagree:
Missing Jasper. He wasn't much of a PG. When he was in, he got picked a lot. He actually cost us 2-3 games at the end of the game, when he was bringing it up and got picked. He was smart, but not an offensive threat.
Liggins is better than Jasper (or at least be by the end of the year).

Liggins makes turnovers too ... but his turnovers are him trying to make plays. Jasper and Porter made/make turnovers just making stupid passes or getting picked.

Meeks is not selfish. The last couple of games, he has played within himself. He was selfish in the two games they lost. The reason he looked selfish was because they were getting drummed and he decided that no one else would score so he started to shoot a lot (which he actually brought them back).

UK needs Meeks to shoot the ball to win. The only offensive threats are Meeks and Patterson.

Overall ... I wouldn't play this game, but I would go with UK as a lean.
UK struggles with offensive teams that get up and down the court (just look at VMI & North Carolina).
The play GREAT against teams like Miami.

good luck

 

[XYZ_ABC]

Very nice writeup jbragg10. great observations and points!

 

[homedawg]

So we're playing russian roulette with providence again huh? I don't know if my heart can take that team anymore and rhode island is pretty good. Will probably lay off that game. Like the Wisconsin play though.

PC is a totally different team at home. They shoot a lot of 3's and shoot at a much higher % at the Dunkin Donuts Center. They are also much more talented top to bottom compared to Rhode Isle. Fact is home court plays a huge role in cbb and the Friars are a perfect example.

 

[homedawg]

I have to disagree with Kentucky especially with their injuries and the fact Miami will want to bounce back after that 2nd half collapse at home.

What do you think about ND -3.5 vs. Ohio St.?

Ya but you just don't walk into Rupp arena against a very good team and come out victorius. It just doesn't happen enough. As long as Patterson, and Meeks are playing I will take my chances

 

[homedawg]

Like the michigan play man!

But arkansas state? sure they play some solid D but they just beat a winless indiana state team by 2 and really have not beaten anyone worth much besides maybe ball state..

Plus missouri state just put a pretty big whooping on UALR. Ballsy bet

Have to disagree. John Brady has come in and instilled a sense of confidence in this team. Last year they were totally lost on defense, now they are dominiating with basically the same team. Defense is almost all effort so that tell's me something. it tells me Brady has these guys focused, and believing in his system, and more importantly believing in himself. Even though Mizz St beat a very good UALR team the other night I still think they have a shit season. This is a team short on talent, and will still be missing 2 starting guards. They will basically only have 1 ball handler to face a strong Arkansas St defense which should spell trouble. You just can't keep counting on a thin, untalented team to keep reaching down and pulling out miraculous wins. I will gladly take the 7 points

 

[cut-paste-hero]

Good Luck Homedawg

Got

U of M +10

Wisky +5

And better lines on a couple of these.

Lets get it done today

:toast:

 

[homedawg]

Good Luck Homedawg - 55% aint bad considering a lot of these teams are still getting back into the groove and finding their identity. I myself only have 9 (4-4-1) plays thus far on the season and will probably wait a few more weeks before I start picking up a few games daily. I have a history of kind of digging myself a hole early in the season as the teams I backed don't seem to show up (ierovidence not willing to make you any money!)

I've been watching your picks and I have a feeling once you feel out some of these teams you're going to have a very profitable New Year

strangely I tend to do better when the season goes on as well. For the most part you are supposed to do better early in the season when you can catch some loose lines. I have won at a decent %, but was playing mostly 2 units when I started, but have raised my plays lately to almost all 3 and 4 units..that's why I am '-' money.

i have no doubt I will be back up in no time, just like MLB i started down 25 units and ended the season over 70 through 700+ plays.

GL

 

[homedawg]

Homedawg,

It is good to be back. I left for a while when my season went south last year. I am easing my way back in and put out one play tonight that was crap. Will get it back together. Liking several of your plays for Saturday. The only one that scares me is the Kentucky. Not sure of this team yet. They are a turnover waiting to happen. I would like them a lot a better if they strictly ran their o through Patterson. Meeks is too selfish in my opinion. They miss Jasper more than anybody from last years team. Just my opinion. They are at home though and that means a ton to me. Curious what Miami did on road last year? Good Luck. I may post a card today. Not sure yet.

Good to see you back Ron. Looking forward to your plays. Similar styles of choosing games. Just think Kentucky will get it done today. Lot of gut, and like JBragg said they play much better in these grind it out games

 

[homedawg]

Ya but you just don't walk into Rupp arena against a very good team and come out victorius. It just doesn't happen enough. As long as Patterson, and Meeks are playing I will take my chances

I like ND if you could have got done at -1.5....That was when Gody was questionable. He has since been upgraded to probable. I think ND is a very dangerous team at home. Cause they shoot the ball from deep so often playing at home makes them one of the most dangerous teams in the country. You can't sell short the importance of playing on your home court when your primarily a team that chucks it. They have historically been poor on the road, and virtually unbeatable at home. Mostly b/c they relied on the 3 so heavily. At least now they have a presence down low in Gody, so they can go out and win on the road. I think they get it done tonight no problem. This is an extremely talented team that isn't going to lose many games. Catching such a short line is a gift

 

[homedawg]

Good Luck Homedawg

Got

U of M +10

Wisky +5

And better lines on a couple of these.

Lets get it done today

:toast:

planning on a huge day. going to add some units to a few of these.

 

[knucklecup]

Lets get that money, HD.