Home teams in the Divisional Round

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Posted by WillWalk - Speaking of the big picture trends, can you tell me the home teams ATS in the divisional round for the last 10 years or so? Last year all four dogs covered but before that I think the home teams had an a great record. Seems like it was 3-1 ATS or at least 2-2 for years before last.

I will list the ATS records for the home teams:

2003: 0-4 ATS
2002: 3-1 ATS
2001: 2-1-1 ATS
2000: 3-1 ATS
1999: 2-2 ATS
1998: 3-1 ATS
1997: 1-2-1 ATS
1996: 3-1 ATS
1995: 2-2 ATS
1994: 3-1 ATS
1993: 1-3 ATS
1992: 2-2 ATS
1991: 3-1 ATS
1990: 4-0 ATS
1989: 1-2-1 ATS
1988: 4-0 ATS
1987: 2-2 ATS
1986: 2-2 ATS
1985: 2-2 ATS
1984: 1-3 ATS
1983: 2-2 ATS
1982: 3-1 ATS

Overall past 22 seasons: 49-36-3 57.6%

Big Lou
 

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big lou

what do you think about philly this year

what they are doing after 3 straight conf champ games is unheard of

they are loaded in every position except untested corners
 

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DE NIRO,

Actually I have a good story to tell on how the Eagles missed out on their place in NFL history. Unfortunately I'm leaving shortly to go to my niece's college graduation party so I don't have the time at the moment but I will post an interesting story in the next day or so.

Big Lou
 

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DE NIRO,

The Eagles were in position to win multiple Super Bowls but fell short three years in a row. From a historical standpoint they had a lot in common with the four teams that dominated each decade: the Packers in the 60's, the Steelers in the 70's, the 49ers of the 80's and the Cowboys of the 90's.

Teams that won back to back and multiple Super Bowls in the same decade shared three distinct characteristcs. (For arguments sake I am including the Packers here because they would have won at least one more trophy had the Super Bowl began in 1960. If you want to argue that point, start a different thread).

First off, they were all coached by a guy in his first ever NFL head coaching job. Vince Lombardi took over in 1959, Chuck Noll in 1969, Bill Walsh in 1979 and Jimmy Johnson in 1989.

Secondly, all four teams drafted the QB that would lead them to multiple championships.

Bart Starr was drafted in the 17th round in 1956. Terry Bradshaw was the No. 1 overall pick in 1970. Joe Montana was a second round draft choice in 1979 and the Cowboys took Troy Aikman 1st overall in 1989. (On a side note - the second player taken that year was Tony Mandarich by the Packers. The Lions grabbed Barry Sanders with the third pick. Can you imagine if Green Bay passed on Mandarich, which would have been a great move on their part, and took Sanders instead? Favre and Sanders in the same backfield. Interesting to think about.)

Lastly, all four teams that would go on to domainte the decade were arguably the worst teams in football before the respective head coaches took over.

Between 1947-1958 the Packers did not have a winning season, finishing a league worst 1-10-1 the year before Lombardi showed up. They would be in the NFL title game in two short years, losing 17-13 to the Eagles. Then the domiantion began, winning the NFL title game in 1961, 62, 65, 66 & 67, and winning the first two Super Bowls ever played. They named that trophy after Lombardi for a reason.

The Steelers weren't much better when Chuck Noll took over in 1969. They had gone 5 straight years without a winning record, going just 2-11-1 in '68. It took this franchise a little longer to get rolling, finishing 1-13 and 5-9 in Noll's first two seasons, but before you knew it they had won the big game four times in a six year span.

The 49ers went 2-14 the year before Bill Walsh took over and in his first season as head coach. Then a skinny QB named Joe Montana mastered Bill Walsh's west coast offense and the rest is history, with San Francisco bringing home the Lombardi trophy in 81, 84, 88 & 89. (Note - the last win came under George Seifert).

Dallas was absolutly horrific in 1988 & 1989, going 3-13 and then 1-15 in Johnson's first year at the helm. They would make four straight appearances in the NFC title game, winning two Super Bowls under J.J. and one under Barry Switzer.

The Eagles were well on their way to falling into this category. First time NFL head coach Andy Reid took over in 1999, the year after Philadelphia finished 3-13. (Side note - Eagles offensive coordinator Jon Gruden left after the 1997 season to become head coach of the Raiders. The offense absolutely hit rock bottom, scoring a league worst 161 points, after scoring 317 the previous season). I can say first hand how bad the Eagles offense still was early in the 1999 season, having seen them play the Bills in Rich Stadium in week three that season. The defense was starting to come around but the offense was terrible, led by current Packer backup QB Doug Pederson. It wasn't until Donovan McNabb officially took over the reigns in Week Ten against the Redskins that this team started to turn the corner. They lost to the Giants in the divisional round of the 2000 playoffs, on the road in the conference finals against the Rams in 2001 and then secured home field advantage in 2002. All things were pointing towards this team heading in the right direction. But it didn't quite happen.

I believe, among other things, they failed to upgrade the WR position, which should have been done before the 2003 season began. It looked like the Eagles were still relying too much on McNabb making plays with his legs and should have realized that Thrash, Pinkston and Mitchell were not going to be enough to make that final push. They left the WR corps as is and again lost the conference championship game at home, this time against the Panthers. They had a lot of injuries along the defensive line last season, which obviously did not help, but the offesne really didn't make any strides forward after the loss to Tampa Bay. Too bad because it's not often a team makes three straight title game appearances in this day and age.

Do the Eagles still have a chance in 2004? I wouldn't bet on it.

Big Lou
 

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lou,

based on your story, is it safe to say that cinci has a chance to dominate this decade?


also, why dont you think philly is a good shot at getting back, i mean, if anything, they have definetly gotten better on paper this offseason.
 

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So, over the last 11 yrs this 'trend' is 25-21 or 54%. I'll just handicap the games and hope to hit 55+%.
 

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olddog,

The interesting point was this "trend" was happening exactly every ten years, beginning in 1959 with Lombardi and the Packers.

Big Lou
 

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Big Lou,
Glad to see you posting on here again but please dont get stuck in the same crap as last year. Between your post-season thoughts and Panthers pre-season theories, its almost a re-run of last year and we all know how that ended for both of you. I see Proplaye's surfaced and if he starts rambling on about how Miami will win the SB, it will be time to slash the wrists.
 

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