Home dogs barking in AFL

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In this space a week ago Wednesday, I pointed out that it appeared that home underdogs in the Arena Football League were being undervalued by oddsmakers, or at least it seemed that way after three home dogs pulled outright upsets.

The trend continued last weekend as home dogs went 2-0 against the spread, with Grand Rapids pulling a 66-57 outright upset of Columbus on Sunday as a 6-point dog. Overall, underdogs went 5-2-1 against the spread last weekend, though it should be pointed out that the push was a loss for the majority of bettors in the New Orleans-Tampa Bay game on Feb. 25 as the line opened at New Orleans -4 1/2 and was bet to -6, so only the very latest bettors got the push.

Looking at this weekend's schedule, there are no home dogs in any of the AFL's eight games, though Philadelphia is pick-em at home vs. New York on Sunday and is a good pick at that spread, and would be better if New York is bet to favoritism. The AFL's weekend slate begins Friday night here with the Las Vegas Gladiators hosting the Austin Wranglers at 7 p.m. at the Thomas & Mack Center. The Gladiators, with a 3-2 record and surprisingly tied atop the tough Western Division, are 7-point favorites despite playing their third straight game without starting quarterback Clint Dolezel. The Wranglers are tied for a league-worst record of 1-4.


Dave Tuley DRF.com
 

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Home dogs might be barking pretty loud, but the longer the season goes on, the less likely they are to cover... Now, if you throw out Columbus, Austin, Grand Rapids, and Nashville, you'll have a great stat and trend.
 

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