Home Dog System

[winbet]

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=1><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width="100%" bgColor=#f9fafd>Home Dog

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width="100%" bgColor=white>Bet on a home dog of +3 or less that won S/U last week

versus an opponent that won S/U at home last week but lost ATS.

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width="100%" bgColor=white>Record

11-1-0 ATS and 11-1 S/U (1994-2002)

Not only have the home dogs covered by an average of +13.0 points/game, they have won 11 of 12 straight-up!

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width="100%" bgColor=white>Rationale

Home dog has shown that they are capable of winning. They should be playing with confidence, especially in front of their home crowd. By setting a small line the oddsmakers are telling us that the home dog is not perceived to be as good as their opponent, but it's definitely not a mismatch. The away favorite is off a straight-up win and may not be as "hungry" to win this one. Although they won last game, they didn't cover the points which suggests they are overvalued or it could be a sign of other problems. There is a greater chance of a letdown on the road. The away favorite very likely has the better W-L record and the general public feels they should be good enough to win by a FG or more.


Only just spotted this, interesting considering the Pittsburgh game.


</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[ChadC]

Thanks winbet, very interesting.

 

[RightSide]

Buffalo as well......

 

[winbet]

Afraid not rightside, jets covered.

 

[winbet]

Well pittsburgh beat the spread but the reason I bumped the thread up was Carolina qualifies this Weekend. However, with Bulger out, Jackson and Faulk questionable, the line has opened -6.5. Just wondered what people thought considering this stat doesnt come along very often.

 

[oldmanTED]

Winbet:

Was waiting for this line to be posted as Carolina remains one of three games still under consideration for a possible play. As for the stat, believe by now, you already have a sense of my approach and trends and angles are not high on my list as the main factor in decision making.

 

[winbet]

Ted,

Point taken, I have the same outlook as far as angles are concerned. However, when I came across this one, what struck me was the reasoning behind it and only 13 bets in 9 seasons, hardly do your bollocks material. I just feel with a fully fit Rams, the number would have been close, plus these bets are covering by an average of 13.

Thanks for your thoughts and glad to see you up and posting. In fact I was thinking of you the other day and was wondering the official name for your ailment. I am sure you have done plenty of research but it always amazes me the unconventional cures or help people come up with and I am sure there is plenty of people on here only too willing to try. Of course your personal privacy and decisions are completely your own business.