holiday racing kicks off with a decent card at my home track, although it looks like everybody is saving the best for monday. here's the skinny at hollywood tomorrow.
race 2: mist of the empire. this five pack of cheap 3 yo claimers goes 6f and it looks like they all have early speed. in fact each of the horses has had the lead at the first call at some point in their brief careers. when this happens, i look to post position and try to find the speed of the speed, so to speak. here, i'm lookng at mist of the empire, who has rated before and she should sit the perfect trip watching the speed duel unfold from her cozy outside post. with pval, she'll be laying close and i look for her to perhaps turn the tables on belle of protugal at a decent price.
race 5: guiding force. this looks like a good betting race, with a field of 10 going postward. obviously slew stew is the one to beat off a dominating front-running performance two weeks ago. he steps up and i'm going to take a chance with back-classer guiding force, who is coming off a long layoff for sadler. look for pedroza to put this one into the race early and he should fire his best shot first off the bench. i'd play him at 9/2 or better.
race 7: saintly persuasion. don't know what kind of price we'll get on this sherriffs firster, but she's been working well and doesn't meet an especially tough field. experience horses usually have the edge in these maiden affairs, but none of them have put the fear of god in anyone. will back the debutante.
race 9: wicked sami. let me begin by saying this-- my candi's gold, my phone and everlasting life all have trained very well in the mornings and should be included in all exotic wagers. however, i'm going to take a flyer on a surprisingly well-bred first timer from the seldom seen vargas barn. his daddy, the wicked north, was one of the fleetest horses of his time (eclipse award for top handicap horse in 1993) and could run short, long, turf or dirt and was a good juvenille (2nd behind the precocious bertrando). dam au courant rose won her fair share on the nocal circuit a few years back and while the san luis rey downs works are hard to guage it looks like he's got a little bit of lick. i'll take a flyer with felipe aboard at 20/1 or so.
in other races, i like #5 erin's storm in the 7th at belmont and #6 best to be king in the first at churchill. may post some more simulcast plays as the day wears on.
race 2: mist of the empire. this five pack of cheap 3 yo claimers goes 6f and it looks like they all have early speed. in fact each of the horses has had the lead at the first call at some point in their brief careers. when this happens, i look to post position and try to find the speed of the speed, so to speak. here, i'm lookng at mist of the empire, who has rated before and she should sit the perfect trip watching the speed duel unfold from her cozy outside post. with pval, she'll be laying close and i look for her to perhaps turn the tables on belle of protugal at a decent price.
race 5: guiding force. this looks like a good betting race, with a field of 10 going postward. obviously slew stew is the one to beat off a dominating front-running performance two weeks ago. he steps up and i'm going to take a chance with back-classer guiding force, who is coming off a long layoff for sadler. look for pedroza to put this one into the race early and he should fire his best shot first off the bench. i'd play him at 9/2 or better.
race 7: saintly persuasion. don't know what kind of price we'll get on this sherriffs firster, but she's been working well and doesn't meet an especially tough field. experience horses usually have the edge in these maiden affairs, but none of them have put the fear of god in anyone. will back the debutante.
race 9: wicked sami. let me begin by saying this-- my candi's gold, my phone and everlasting life all have trained very well in the mornings and should be included in all exotic wagers. however, i'm going to take a flyer on a surprisingly well-bred first timer from the seldom seen vargas barn. his daddy, the wicked north, was one of the fleetest horses of his time (eclipse award for top handicap horse in 1993) and could run short, long, turf or dirt and was a good juvenille (2nd behind the precocious bertrando). dam au courant rose won her fair share on the nocal circuit a few years back and while the san luis rey downs works are hard to guage it looks like he's got a little bit of lick. i'll take a flyer with felipe aboard at 20/1 or so.
in other races, i like #5 erin's storm in the 7th at belmont and #6 best to be king in the first at churchill. may post some more simulcast plays as the day wears on.
