Hogs

[SSI]

this is the 4th market that im going to be looking at and trading...... however in this market, ill do alot of option trading, as well as spread trading........... dont worry about those things, right now.......... we will talk about those in good time.....

Hogs trade from 9:10 am cst until 1:00 pm cst, daily in chicago..

1 pt =$4............ so a move from 60.50 to 60.51 is $4........ and a move from 60.50 to 61.50 is $400........ and those happen almost daily in this market....... i love trading hogs......

lets begin with our hand chart....... this is april hogs btw.......... the front month is still feb but i wont be trading that quickly, so we need to start with april.......

1/9: open 63.65, high 6400, low 62.85, last 63.05

1/10: open 62.90, high 64.20, low 62.52, last 64.05

ok, first notice today we broke both the highs and lows of yesterday... this is known as an outside day and are great at determining future direction.. also notice we closed over yesterdays high of 64.00........... ill be shocked if this market doesnt go higher tomorrow........ in fact, this market should probably have been bought near the close today.......

however we did not buy it...... we will look for a place to buy this market tomorrow (get long)........ a perfect stoploss point is 62.50, just under todays low............

here is the plan for tomorrow, now follow along......

if we open lower, we will immediatley buy it and place stop at 62.50..... if we open alot higher (good chance of this), we wait for first pullback and buy it......... remember also, there is a good chance of a gap opening higher tomorrow (todays high was 64.20 and we may open above that), if that happens, we wait for that gap to be filled before buying this market..

getting a little tired,,,,, any ???????? about hogs........ anyone......

ill be adding corn into the arsenal, over the weekend..... this will give us 5 markets to chart and trade.........

 

[SSI]

market opens in 30 min...............

if i were trading, id get a call from the floor...... thats an opening call for anyone that doesnt know....

the market is sitting at 64.05, we are looking today for a spot to buy this market...... we will not use a "market on open" (moo) order......

updates later....

maybe end of day,,,,,,, i cant keep up the reporting and moves in real time and no way can i do that, when i began to trade for real...

ill update at end of day........ unless we enter the trade.......

 

[SSI]

ok market opened flat........

plenty of time to buy a contract..

buying one April Lean Log 63.80 limit,,,,,,,, place a stoploss at 62.50.....

risk of loss on trade, 130pts or $520 per contract......

lets see what happens.......

 

[SSI]

ok we are in.....

will update later........

 

[SSI]

100% wrong, on my initial thinking........

will exit with a small loss.......... easy to do paper trading........... will keep up with original trade however......

BIG NOTE to self.................. please identify the TREND of the market, before you do anything else.......... this is not hard to do, simply look at a chart dummy (calling myself that).

i snetence myself to 30 more days of paper trading......

seriously no big deal, loss was very small.......... 40pts..... $160.....

 

[gitty44]

SSI-where do u trade these at, etrade or something?

 

[SSI]

i have been with same firm for alot of years..

Redlands Futures and Options......... they are located in redlands ca

they use the clearing house of rj obrien and associates..

my broker is Nick Kioussis.........

 

[BASEHEAD]

SSI do you only trade short term? Its seems to me easier to spot trends over a longer period.

Say going long on the hogs until April?

 

[SSI]

both,,,,,,,,,

listen, unless your simpy buying an option.... you just cant say, go long on hogs until april.

Lets say you bought hogs today at 63.80............ and you want to stay long until april................ what if market drops to 53.80 and you have been trading with no stops.......... you have lost $4000 per contract......

is that what you want to do.........

of course not.......... i buy and trail the stop, hoping i stay in for a long ride........ but ill let the market take me out eventually, most of the time.

now on the other hand, if you want to buy an april 64.00 call option and you can for $1200.......... then you can stay long until the option expires..

and this may not be a bad trade........... i cant go into option trading right now........ thats a whole other world....

 

[BASEHEAD]

I was simplifying my notion....not trying to open a new can of worms.

Wasnt factoring in stop/loss here,just generalizing but one is assumed.

 

[SSI]

basehead, no problem...... didnt mean to sound like that..

but yes, id like to be long april hogs from now, until exp.....

i trail the stop and am on the lookout for the longterm homerun......

 

[SSI]

been studying a daily hog chart for april.......

this market is in a downtrend.............. currently we sit at 64.35, we are long from 63.80........ we will dump this posistion tuesday (market is closed monday)................ they will sell the fire out of this market around the 65.00 mark......... you can see this, if you look at a daily chart.........

this is one thing ive learned, in my own personal referesher course this week...... to identify the trend and not trade against it......

the overall trend in april hogs is "Down", so we do not wish to be a buyer..

if you want to see if i know what im talking about......... just keep an eye on April Hogs on tuesday........ if it approaches 65.00,,,,,,,, sell it..........