Hilton contest picks: week 17

[quantumleap]

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</TD></TR><TR><TD height=6></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD bgColor=navy><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD bgColor=silver><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width=610 border=0><TBODY><TR align=middle bgColor=navy><TD colSpan=4>Favorite</TD><TD>|</TD><TD colSpan=4>Dog</TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=white><TD>Rank</TD><TD>Picked</TD><TD>Score</TD><TD>Team</TD><TD>Line</TD><TD>Team</TD><TD>Score</TD><TD>Picked</TD><TD>Rank</TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=lavender><TD>17</B></TD><TD>31</TD><TD></TD><TD>NE</TD><TD>14</TD><TD>Sfo</TD><TD></TD><TD>23</TD><TD>20</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=white><TD>4</TD><TD>70</TD><TD></TD><TD>BUF</TD><TD>8½</TD><TD>Pit</TD><TD></TD><TD>41</TD><TD>12</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=lavender><TD>6</B></TD><TD>61</TD><TD></TD><TD>BAL</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>Mia</TD><TD></TD><TD>27</TD><TD>19</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=white><TD>11</B></TD><TD>44</TD><TD></TD><TD>Min</TD><TD>4½</TD><TD>WAS</TD><TD></TD><TD>90</TD><TD>3</TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=lavender><TD>23</B></TD><TD>15</TD><TD></TD><TD>PHI</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>Cin</TD><TD></TD><TD>70</TD><TD>4</TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=white><TD>15</B></TD><TD>35</TD><TD></TD><TD>CHI</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>Grb</TD><TD></TD><TD>46</TD><TD>9</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=lavender><TD>17</B></TD><TD>31</TD><TD></TD><TD>CAR</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>Nor</TD><TD></TD><TD>103</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=white><TD>18</B></TD><TD>28</TD><TD></TD><TD>Det</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>TEN</TD><TD></TD><TD>37</TD><TD>14</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=lavender><TD>2</TD><TD>102</TD><TD></TD><TD>Nyj</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>STL</TD><TD></TD><TD>50</TD><TD>7</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=white><TD>8</B></TD><TD>48</TD><TD></TD><TD>HOU</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>Cle</TD><TD></TD><TD>23</TD><TD>20</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=lavender><TD>5</TD><TD>69</TD><TD></TD><TD>ARZ</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>Tam</TD><TD></TD><TD>18</TD><TD>21</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=white><TD>10</B></TD><TD>45</TD><TD></TD><TD>SEA</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>Atl</TD><TD></TD><TD>16</TD><TD>22</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=lavender><TD>14</B></TD><TD>37</TD><TD></TD><TD>DEN</TD><TD>8½</TD><TD>Ind</TD><TD></TD><TD>32</TD><TD>16</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=white><TD>11</B></TD><TD>44</TD><TD></TD><TD>OAK</TD><TD>2½</TD><TD>Jax</TD><TD></TD><TD>31</TD><TD>17</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=lavender><TD>6</B></TD><TD>61</TD><TD></TD><TD>Kan</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>SDG</TD><TD></TD><TD>37</TD><TD>14</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=white><TD>7</B></TD><TD>50</TD><TD></TD><TD>NYG</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>Dal</TD><TD></TD><TD>40</TD><TD>13</B></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD height=10></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[quantumleap]

I have been making picks based upon the difference in rankings, rather than the top 5 rankings. A poster on here (hot:salsa) suggested that taking the difference in rankings using this table would include those picks by contestants that were in the bottom rungs of the contest. I have compiled the number of picks for each team by importing the top 100 contestant's picks into an Excel spreadsheet and using the COUNTIF function. Here are the results of just the top 100 contestants.

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD bgColor=navy><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD bgColor=silver><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width=610 border=0><TBODY><TR align=middle bgColor=navy><TD colSpan=4>Favorite</TD><TD>|</TD><TD colSpan=4>Dog</TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=white><TD>Rank</TD><TD>Picked</TD><TD>Score</TD><TD>Team</TD><TD>Line</TD><TD>Team</TD><TD>Score</TD><TD>Picked</TD><TD>Rank</TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=lavender><TD>15</B></TD><TD>14</TD><TD></TD><TD>NE</TD><TD>14</TD><TD>Sfo</TD><TD></TD><TD>7</TD><TD>26</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=white><TD>2</TD><TD>30</TD><TD></TD><TD>BUF</TD><TD>8½</TD><TD>Pit</TD><TD></TD><TD>12</TD><TD>18</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=lavender><TD>5</B></TD><TD>27</TD><TD></TD><TD>BAL</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>Mia</TD><TD></TD><TD>5</TD><TD>30</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=white><TD>9</B></TD><TD>20</TD><TD></TD><TD>Min</TD><TD>4½</TD><TD>WAS</TD><TD></TD><TD>28</TD><TD>4</TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=lavender><TD>27</B></TD><TD>6</TD><TD></TD><TD>PHI</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>Cin</TD><TD></TD><TD>20</TD><TD>9</TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=white><TD>24</B></TD><TD>9</TD><TD></TD><TD>CHI</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>Grb</TD><TD></TD><TD>16</TD><TD>13</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=lavender><TD>21</B></TD><TD>11</TD><TD></TD><TD>CAR</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>Nor</TD><TD></TD><TD>30</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=white><TD>18</B></TD><TD>12</TD><TD></TD><TD>Det</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>TEN</TD><TD></TD><TD>9</TD><TD>24</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=lavender><TD>1</TD><TD>43</TD><TD></TD><TD>Nyj</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>STL</TD><TD></TD><TD>15</TD><TD>14</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=white><TD>9</B></TD><TD>20</TD><TD></TD><TD>HOU</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>Cle</TD><TD></TD><TD>6</TD><TD>27</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=lavender><TD>6</TD><TD>25</TD><TD></TD><TD>ARZ</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>Tam</TD><TD></TD><TD>6</TD><TD>27</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=white><TD>16</B></TD><TD>13</TD><TD></TD><TD>SEA</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>Atl</TD><TD></TD><TD>5</TD><TD>30</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=lavender><TD>18</B></TD><TD>12</TD><TD></TD><TD>DEN</TD><TD>8½</TD><TD>Ind</TD><TD></TD><TD>13</TD><TD>16</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=white><TD>8</B></TD><TD>21</TD><TD></TD><TD>OAK</TD><TD>2½</TD><TD>Jax</TD><TD></TD><TD>5</TD><TD>30</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=lavender><TD>7</B></TD><TD>22</TD><TD></TD><TD>Kan</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>SDG</TD><TD></TD><TD>10</TD><TD>22</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=white><TD>12</B></TD><TD>18</TD><TD></TD><TD>NYG</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>Dal</TD><TD></TD><TD>10</TD><TD>22</B></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[hotsalsa]

QL:

Nice job...At first look, I don't see any major differences for week 17. Will give it a more detailed evaluation during the day. I think the top "20" would even more valuable. The 20th ranked contestant at this point is around 61%.

Happy New Year

 

[quantumleap]

QL:

Nice job...At first look, I don't see any major differences for week 17. Will give it a more detailed evaluation during the day. I think the top "20" would even more valuable. The 20th ranked contestant at this point is around 61%.

Happy New Year

Top 20 it is then.

Back with the results later.

 

[hotsalsa]

QL:

Nothing too significant in the differences between top 100 and all picks. In top 100 only 6 favorites were rated slightly better or played more. NE, Buff, Balt., NYJ, and Oak were more respected. Not one dog was considered a better play by top 100. I thought there might be some signifant differences between 50%+ punters and the rest. Actually does not make sense to me. It's obvious that even randomly, the worst per centage selectors do have occasional good weeks and often select the same games as top guys in contest. Sidenote: if you blindly bet against the bottom guys for the past few weeks you would be at 64-65%. Contest is down to 291 people after starting at 400+

 

[quantumleap]

Here are the results for the number of picks from the top 20 contestants. Sorry about the format but it just takes too much time to manually enter it into the form.

Nyj 10
Min 7
Grb 6
Buf 5
Nor 5
Arz 5
Cin 5
Hou 5
Ten 5
Bal 4
Kan 4
Oak 4
NYG 4
Det 4
NE 3
Sea 3
Was 2
Stl 2
Car 2
Dal 2
SDG 2
CHI 2
Phi 2
Jax 2
Ind 1
Den 1
Pit 1
Cle 1
Tam 1
Sfo 0
Atl 0
Mia 0