Come on guys Pittsburgh/Dallas total closed 38, vs NE it closed 39, vs Indy 38.5, vs SD 40.5, vs NY Giants 41, SD (playoffs) 37.5. These are all games after the October 5th bye week when we had started too establish how good this defense was. This is 6-9 points higher, dont tell me this isnt a little too high.
Here is my reasoning: Pittsburgh hasnt allowed a 325 yard game ALL SEASON (which still baffles me), which is an average game (AZ went under that 6 times in regular season). I use a math model that takes into account yardage. It works out that the league average is every 14.8 yards is equal to about 1 point in this high scoring NFL season. Now these two teams combined to average 14.42 yards per point. Now I dont know how many yards combined you think they are going to get but I would think Pittsburgh who hasnt given up a 325 yard game all year, so we will say 275 for Zona and since Pittsburgh is a better team by everyone standards, how about 325 yards for them which combined is 600 yards ( I have a different formula I use but anyways). 600 yards combined works out too 41.5 points. No flukes, turnovers, special teams TD's, etc... Not saying this is going to happen but a 600 yard game is equal to just that and that is about all you can do. I dont think 600 yards may happen either. I am not saying this wont happen (I know better then that) but this is just what the line should be using this information should be and that is what I am trying too figure out here.
An average game is 654 yards which equals 44 points (45.5 points using these two teams numbers) and I dont see how this thing hits 654 yards as Pittsburgh has been involed in only one game all year with that many yards and that barely made it over. I am going with the percentages here. Would love to hear some sound reasoning why this goes over. Let me state this not my game prediction, this is all about what the line should be. That is my biggest concern here.
Here is my reasoning: Pittsburgh hasnt allowed a 325 yard game ALL SEASON (which still baffles me), which is an average game (AZ went under that 6 times in regular season). I use a math model that takes into account yardage. It works out that the league average is every 14.8 yards is equal to about 1 point in this high scoring NFL season. Now these two teams combined to average 14.42 yards per point. Now I dont know how many yards combined you think they are going to get but I would think Pittsburgh who hasnt given up a 325 yard game all year, so we will say 275 for Zona and since Pittsburgh is a better team by everyone standards, how about 325 yards for them which combined is 600 yards ( I have a different formula I use but anyways). 600 yards combined works out too 41.5 points. No flukes, turnovers, special teams TD's, etc... Not saying this is going to happen but a 600 yard game is equal to just that and that is about all you can do. I dont think 600 yards may happen either. I am not saying this wont happen (I know better then that) but this is just what the line should be using this information should be and that is what I am trying too figure out here.
An average game is 654 yards which equals 44 points (45.5 points using these two teams numbers) and I dont see how this thing hits 654 yards as Pittsburgh has been involed in only one game all year with that many yards and that barely made it over. I am going with the percentages here. Would love to hear some sound reasoning why this goes over. Let me state this not my game prediction, this is all about what the line should be. That is my biggest concern here.
I knew the weather debate would be the defense for this. I never handicapped a game all year and said oh wait this is in a dome or nice weather I now need to add 6-9 points to the total. Everything is factored in. It is completely obvious the linesmaker adds way too many points in this type game, he always has. It just makes me laugh how every year this is the reasoning for the total in this game being higher then it should, seems no one talks about this all year in any other nice weather games but for the SB it becomes huge.
I handicapped many a game this year and never heard the weather is good theory. We just dealt with one today and not a word was said about adding points for it. Hell we just had the same total in beautiful arizona today and it dropped throughout the week and Phillys defense is not nowhere near the level of Pittsburgh. Same type weather different defense, no total should be same and if anything Philly's offense is better then Pittsburgh's.
Let me add again I am not concerned so much with winning the bet as I am looking for which way this line closes. I have some under 47.5 right now. I want more but i think it is more or less gone.
The thing that sucks is you wont find a bigger Arizona backer then myself, they made me quite a bit of money this year, if you remember I am one of a few who liked them week 1 of the playoffs versus Atlanta but I would disagree their offense is "by far" the best offense in the league. I would debate that one. Teams like New Orleans, Denver, San Diego, Carolina, etc having bigger numbers. Heck if you look at footballoutsiders.com DVOA number which is by far the best statistical information out there in the NFL it has the Arizona offense 13th in the NFL after the regular season, which we all know now was too low but that day many felt it wasnt far off.
I handicapped many a game this year and never heard the weather is good theory. We just dealt with one today and not a word was said about adding points for it. Hell we just had the same total in beautiful arizona today and it dropped throughout the week and Phillys defense is not nowhere near the level of Pittsburgh. Same type weather different defense, no total should be same and if anything Philly's offense is better then Pittsburgh's.
Let me add again I am not concerned so much with winning the bet as I am looking for which way this line closes. I have some under 47.5 right now. I want more but i think it is more or less gone.
The thing that sucks is you wont find a bigger Arizona backer then myself, they made me quite a bit of money this year, if you remember I am one of a few who liked them week 1 of the playoffs versus Atlanta but I would disagree their offense is "by far" the best offense in the league. I would debate that one. Teams like New Orleans, Denver, San Diego, Carolina, etc having bigger numbers. Heck if you look at footballoutsiders.com DVOA number which is by far the best statistical information out there in the NFL it has the Arizona offense 13th in the NFL after the regular season, which we all know now was too low but that day many felt it wasnt far off.
Fuck, I hate to agree with Rail and disagree with Ice, but I do think this one goes over as well. (which means I will probably lose). I just think that both teams can move the ball. If AZ, who has a weak run game, gets shut down early, they'll be airing it out all game which will lead to scores for either them, or the Pitt D. Pitt had a ton of scoring opps today that they missed out on and think they will work on that this week in practice to make sure they take advantage of them. Also, as mentioned, the nice weather makes for a high scoring affair with these sorts of match ups.
GL either way guys.
p.s. Ice love reading your updates on here, always a solid read and allows me to live vicariously through you= living in vegas, betting for a living. Keep it up.
GL either way guys.
p.s. Ice love reading your updates on here, always a solid read and allows me to live vicariously through you= living in vegas, betting for a living. Keep it up.
