Hey Nagin...Use the Busses This Time!

[Coldweather]

He needs to keep the people safe and happy at the same time and make sure they have food to eat after the rain stops. He also needs to tell the Cops to not steal stuff this time and to be good to the people.

This is what I think about this here matter.

:cripwalk::cripwalk::cripwalk::cripwalk:

 

[tiznow]

cuba gonna get nailed here by days end too and on current track havana might get hit hard.....its on the north coast but looks to get a good potion of the NE quadrant (stongest part of cane)

 

[Mistermj]

Geezus...tough call for the Republicans...they can't have a convention if this thing slams NO again...they just can't.

If you wrote a book with a plot like this...nobody would believe it.

 

[tiznow]

y its time for NO to start to worry

plus this thing keeps slowly tracking very slightly east

all the models keep it west for the most part NHCs is the most eastern track

for now it looks likes its got its eyes on NO with middle of LA landfall which will still do a number to um

katrina didn't even directly hit NO the winds weren't that bad just all the water screwed um up.....what happens when you live in a bowl

plus who knows what happens with hanna after this and there are other disturbences behind her

will be an interesting few weeks that's for sure

 

[tiznow]

this was at 11 am est

944 mb the pressure now and is nearing a cat 4 wind speed wise

cuba gonna get nailed bad

--------------------------------------------------

000
Wtnt42 Knhc 301500
Tcdat2
Hurricane Gustav Discussion Number 23
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al072008
1100 Am Edt Sat Aug 30 2008

After Rapidly Intensifying Overnight...the Strengthening Rate
Appears To Have Slowed A Little...although The Central Pressure
Reported By Recon Has Continued To Fall This Morning...with The
Most Recent Value Down To 954 Mb. The Brief Time Gustav Will Spend
Over Western Cuba During The Next Day Or So Should Not Weaken The
Hurricane Much...and All Intensity Guidance Indicates Conditions
Are Conducive Over The Gulf Of Mexico For Additional
Strengthening...especially Over The Southern Gulf Where Oceanic
Heat Content Is Greatest. The New Official Intensity Forecast
Peaks A Little Higher At 120 Kt...very Close To A Consensus Of The
Available Models. Despite The Implied Weakening Between 48 And 72
Hours Due To Forecast Landfall...no Dramatic Weakening Is Forecast
While Gustav Remains Over The Gulf...and It Could Reach The
Northern Gulf Coast As A Major Hurricane.

Gustav Jogged Northward During The Past Few Hours...and It Is Not
Yet Clear If It Has Resumed A Northwestward Heading...but The
Long-term Motion Estimate Is Northwestward Or 320/12. The Steering
Currents Pushing Gustav Northwestward Are Generally Well-defined
And Should Remain That Way For At Least The Next Couple Of
Days...as The Hurricane Moves Around The Western Periphery Of A
Mid-level Ridge Over The Western Atlantic. Beyond 48 Hours...most
Of The Guidance Indicates A Slowing Of The Forward Motion As A
Strong But Distant Ridge Builds Over The Northeastern United States
And Steering Currents Weaken Over The Gulf Coast States. None Of
The Models Have Significantly Changed Their Track Solution Compared
To The Previous Cycle...so The Consensus Has Remained In Place.
The Spread At 3-5 Days Is Still Substantial...however...with Some
Models Including The Ukmet And Hwrf Calling For Gustav To Turn
Westward Just Before Reaching The Northern Gulf Coast. The New
Official Forecast Track Remains Consistent With The Remaining
Guidance In Taking Gustav Inland In Less Than 72 Hours...and Is
Just Edged Ever So Slightly To The Right...in Part To Account For
The Recent Right Of Track Motion. Regardless Of The Details In The
Track...gustav Will Likely Slow Down Significantly In The
Longer-term...which Could Cause A Considerable Flooding Threat Over
Louisiana And Texas.


Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 30/1500z 21.2n 82.1w 110 Kt
12hr Vt 31/0000z 22.5n 83.5w 105 Kt...over Western Cuba
24hr Vt 31/1200z 24.3n 85.4w 115 Kt
36hr Vt 01/0000z 26.0n 87.3w 120 Kt
48hr Vt 01/1200z 27.8n 89.2w 110 Kt
72hr Vt 02/1200z 30.5n 92.5w 65 Kt...inland
96hr Vt 03/1200z 31.5n 94.0w 35 Kt...inland
120hr Vt 04/1200z 32.0n 95.5w 30 Kt...inland

 

[Mistermj]

cuba gonna get nailed bad

Good!

The boys in the orange jumpsuits at Gauntanamo haven't seen a Cane before...whole lotta prayin to Allah goin on today....:lol:

Mother Nature dishin out a lil waterboard of her own

 

[tiznow]

category 4 already

guantanamo on the SE tip of cuba they aren't gonna feel anything your hilarous MJ i must give you that

havana gonna take a good beating though

------------------------------------------

000
WTNT62 KNHC 301718
TCUAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
120 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008


DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AND NOW HAS MAXIMUM WINDS
NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES GUSTAV AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT ABOUT 200 PM
EDT TO MODIFY THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITIES. THE SPECIAL
PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL TAKE THE PLACE OF THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED FOR THAT TIME.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

 

[tiznow]

making landfall on the eastern part of isle of youth now

before it hits the cuban mainland

intensity should peak out in the next 4 hours or so before cuban landfall probably knocking it down to strong cat 3 or weak cat 4 depending on how strong it gets before than

we'll see how low its pressure gets better gauge of strength overall anyway was 945 at last reading....

we'll see how it does after that

---------------------------------------------

000
WTNT32 KNHC 301805
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...GUSTAV BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...
...WESTERN EYEWALL DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE ISLE OF YOUTH...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...ISLA DE
JUVENTUD...MATANZAS...AND CIENFUEGOS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN
COMPLETED.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCE
OF VILLA CLARA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN
PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND
CAMAGUEY...AND FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE TO DRY TORTUGAS.

INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV. A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST...NEAR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH...OR ABOUT 155 MILES...250 KM...EAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA AND ABOUT 110 MILES...180 KM...SOUTH OF HAVANA CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL PASS OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN EMERGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY ON SUNDAY...AND REACH THE NORTHERN
GULF BY MONDAY MORNING.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND ARE NOW NEAR 145
MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS AN EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. AN UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATION OF A SUSTAINED WIND OF
140 MPH...220 KM/HR...HAS BEEN REPORTED ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF
THE ISLE OF YOUTH. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND GUSTAV COULD BECOME A CATEGORY
FIVE HURRICANE EITHER BEFORE OR SHORTLY AFTER CROSSING WESTERN
CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 23 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN
CUBA...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS GUSTAV
PASSES TO ITS WEST.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS
AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA BY SUNDAY MORNING.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...21.6 N...82.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB.

THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

 

[tiznow]

An Unofficial Observation Of A Sustained Wind Of
140 Mph...220 Km/hr...has Been Reported Along The Eastern Coast Of
The Isle Of Youth. Some Additional Strengthening Is Forecast
During The Next Couple Of Days...and Gustav Could Become A Category
Five Hurricane Either Before Or Shortly After Crossing Western
Cuba.

 

[tiznow]

just can hope this thing does what rita did (the big one that came after katrina evacuated galveston, TX....big houston traffic jams etc....) and hit as cat 3 at LA/TX border and didn't really mess things up too bad

plus this guy for now is smaller than both katrina and rita and not near pressure lows yet.....so not on par with those yet....

down to 939 on pressure....

 

[tiznow]

looking ahead as well one model has hanna hitting daytona beach as a cat 3

but that won't be for another weak + and pretty far out alot can change

also ike looms behind hanna most likely

 

[tiznow]

i love all the fear mongering

FEMA guys now saying its a cat 5 when its not officially one via the meterologists....and the category system is such a sham to begin with size and pressure also big variables.....cat shit is just wind and katrina didn't hurt much with its wind....

anyway this guy still not on par with a katrina or rita yet as far as both size and pressure.....

 

[tiznow]

looks like a medium sized strong cat 4 on wind perfect stadium effect eye holding steady at 940 mb on pressure as he approaches the cuba mainland

cuba shouldn't do that much to it only 30-40 miles wide where he's gonna cross and should only be over it for 3-4 hours max......

we'll see what he can do on the other side will have to undergo an ERC (eyewall replacement cycle at some point) we'll see if he can get bigger and drop that pressure even more on the other side


lets hope not....plus it keeps trending more east than expected as we go.....

 

[tiznow]

cuba ain't doing shit to this guy looking as good as ever so far and picking up speed as he zips across it's starting to get real worrisome now we'll see how he does in the next 24 hours as he emerges into southern gulf

can follow the action for now (while it stays in range) here

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=BYX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

 

[tiznow]

he ain't looking too good right now and has alot of sheer to contend with we might dodge the bullet a bit here....

they still calling for a weak end cat 3 at land fall i think it could be even weaker as weak as a cat 1

we shall see will hit sometime tomorrow

------------------------------------------

000
WTNT42 KNHC 311457
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

GUSTAV CONTINUES TO LOOK SOMEWHAT RAGGED IN SATELLITE APPEARANCE
THIS MORNING. THE DEEP CONVECTION IS VERY ASYMMETRIC...WITH THE
COLD TOPS DUE MAINLY TO ONE HOT TOWER IN THE WESTERN EYEWALL.
WHILE AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE IS APPARENT...IT IS DISPLACED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AIRCRAFT-REPORTED CENTER. THE LATEST REPORT FROM
A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATES THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO
962 MB...ALONG WITH AN ELLIPTICAL 30 BY 20 N MI WIDE EYE OPEN TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 105 KT...AND THIS
MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT WINDS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/15. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK...WITH A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EXPECTED TO STEER
GUSTAV NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE NEW
GUIDANCE RUNS SHOW A SLIGHT LEFT TURN AFTER 12 HR WITH A LEFTWARD
SHIFT IN THE LANDFALL POINT ON THE LOUISIANA COAST. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK WILL NOT FOLLOW THIS SHIFT YET...AND THUS LIES NEAR
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK THROUGH 48 HR. AFTER 48-72 HR...THERE IS MAJOR DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ON WHETHER GUSTAV WILL RECURVE INTO
THE WESTERLIES...STALL OVER LOUISIANA OR TEXAS...OR TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD. SINCE THIS KIND OF SPREAD FREQUENTLY PRECEDES SLOW
MOTION...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CALL FOR A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION
AFTER 72 HR.

AT THE RISK OF SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOWS THAT GUSTAV REMAINS IN 15 TO 20 KT OF
SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR....AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST AT
LEAST SOME SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TO PERSIST UNTIL
LANDFALL. THAT...COMBINED WITH THE CURRENT RAGGED STORM STRUCTURE
AND THE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE STORM IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...SUGGESTS ANY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE SLOW.
ADDITIONALLY..GUSTAV IS OVER A WARM EDDY IN THE LOOP CURRENT
NOW...AND SHOULD PASS OVER WATERS WITH LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT
BETWEEN NOW AND LANDFALL. THE GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THESE FACTORS
BY FORECASTING MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HR...WITH THE GFDL FORECASTING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KT AND THE
OTHER MODELS ABOUT 110 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
WILL CALL FOR GUSTAV TO RE-INTENSIFY TO 115 KT IN 12 TO 24 HR...AND
MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.
GUSTAV SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/1500Z 25.3N 86.0W 105 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 27.0N 87.7W 115 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 28.6N 89.7W 115 KT
36HR VT 02/0000Z 30.0N 91.5W 85 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 02/1200Z 31.1N 93.0W 50 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 03/1200Z 32.0N 94.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 04/1200Z 32.0N 95.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 05/1200Z 32.0N 95.9W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW