unreal
and you wonder why nobody left during katrina
cause they went through this shit over and over prior to it...post camille.....and nothing happened
--------------------------
Dear Tulane Community,
While Tropical Storm Gustav appears to be tracking to the west of New Orleans at this time, Gustav’s path is still too unpredictable for us to be sure of its ultimate landfall. After many discussions with our senior leadership team, as well as up-to-the minute reports from our national weather monitoring service, we have decided to close the university at noon tomorrow (Friday, August 29).
Based on what we know today, the university will resume normal business operations on Wednesday, September 3, while classes will resume on Thursday, September 4.
and you wonder why nobody left during katrina
cause they went through this shit over and over prior to it...post camille.....and nothing happened
--------------------------
Dear Tulane Community,
While Tropical Storm Gustav appears to be tracking to the west of New Orleans at this time, Gustav’s path is still too unpredictable for us to be sure of its ultimate landfall. After many discussions with our senior leadership team, as well as up-to-the minute reports from our national weather monitoring service, we have decided to close the university at noon tomorrow (Friday, August 29).
Based on what we know today, the university will resume normal business operations on Wednesday, September 3, while classes will resume on Thursday, September 4.
960mb Hanna south of New Orleans at 216 hrs on one of the model runs
lets hope this all doesn't play out with a 1-2 punch on NO.....as well as hanna cutting across already flooded florida.....things so far away and things usually change
hell katrina was nothing as it cut across miami and than bombed out big time and went dead straight for NO after that
lets hope this all doesn't play out with a 1-2 punch on NO.....as well as hanna cutting across already flooded florida.....things so far away and things usually change
hell katrina was nothing as it cut across miami and than bombed out big time and went dead straight for NO after that
here's somebody's current analysis
either way i'd fill up those gas tanks prices likely turning back higher near term especially in the southeast
---------------------------------------
GUSTAV: Looks like the stage is set for rapid deepening during the next 24 hours as the tropical system moves away from Jamaica and south of Cuba. No reason to think this won’t be a major hurricane as it enters the Gulf of Mexico this weekend.
Some uncertainty is creeping into the forecast for Gustav early next week. The GFS is hinting at a block north of the system, which would slow it down as it approaches the Louisiana coast, then forcing it to move westward (much like Fay off the Florida Atlantic coast) toward the upper Texas coast. While this is an outlier for now, the idea is certainly on the table.
The usually reliable GFDL takes Gustav right into Mobile Bay Monday night as a strong category 2, or a category 3 hurricane. Worst case situation for the Alabama coast.
The European brings Gustav into New Orleans as a weakening hurricane.
The blend of the other models is close to the official NHC track, which brings Gustav into the Louisiana coast between Morgan City and New Orleans Tuesday morning.
For now, we will maintain the idea of the greatest probability of landfall between Morgan City and Gulf Shores; if the GFS idea becomes more valid, then we will have to shift that area a little to the west tonight. And, once again, everyone from Corpus Christi all the way around to Tampa Bay will need to keep up with Gustav closely in coming days.
INTENSITY: Still very problematic. No doubt Gustav should be a powerful hurricane as it enters the Gulf, but the intensity at landfall is a very tough fall. The possibility of some shear aloft and dry air entrainment is still on the table, and there is a very real chance Gustav could be in a weakening state as it moves ashore. But, big hurricanes don’t spin down quickly, and this could be a major hurricane at landfall (category 3 or higher).
COASTAL IMPACT: Still looks like landfall will come late Monday night or Tuesday morning, and the biggest problem with storm surge will be along and east of the eye. Evacuations could begin in the New Orleans area as early as Saturday, with possible evacuations for the Mississippi coast Sunday. It is also a possibility that an evacuation order will be needed for the Alabama coast Sunday. Emergency management officials will be making some big decisions tomorrow.
IMPACT ON NORTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA: If Gustav moves into Louisiana or Mississippi, we can expect lots of wind and rain Tuesday, and perhaps Wednesday. But, we note the GFS (the model that turns Gustav to the left, toward the Texas coast), keeps much of North and Central Alabama generally dry. We will continue to mention a good chance of rain Tuesday and Wednesday with potential for high wind, but we will be adjusting that forecast as the track of Gustav becomes more clear in coming days.
either way i'd fill up those gas tanks prices likely turning back higher near term especially in the southeast
---------------------------------------
GUSTAV: Looks like the stage is set for rapid deepening during the next 24 hours as the tropical system moves away from Jamaica and south of Cuba. No reason to think this won’t be a major hurricane as it enters the Gulf of Mexico this weekend.
Some uncertainty is creeping into the forecast for Gustav early next week. The GFS is hinting at a block north of the system, which would slow it down as it approaches the Louisiana coast, then forcing it to move westward (much like Fay off the Florida Atlantic coast) toward the upper Texas coast. While this is an outlier for now, the idea is certainly on the table.
The usually reliable GFDL takes Gustav right into Mobile Bay Monday night as a strong category 2, or a category 3 hurricane. Worst case situation for the Alabama coast.
The European brings Gustav into New Orleans as a weakening hurricane.
The blend of the other models is close to the official NHC track, which brings Gustav into the Louisiana coast between Morgan City and New Orleans Tuesday morning.
For now, we will maintain the idea of the greatest probability of landfall between Morgan City and Gulf Shores; if the GFS idea becomes more valid, then we will have to shift that area a little to the west tonight. And, once again, everyone from Corpus Christi all the way around to Tampa Bay will need to keep up with Gustav closely in coming days.
INTENSITY: Still very problematic. No doubt Gustav should be a powerful hurricane as it enters the Gulf, but the intensity at landfall is a very tough fall. The possibility of some shear aloft and dry air entrainment is still on the table, and there is a very real chance Gustav could be in a weakening state as it moves ashore. But, big hurricanes don’t spin down quickly, and this could be a major hurricane at landfall (category 3 or higher).
COASTAL IMPACT: Still looks like landfall will come late Monday night or Tuesday morning, and the biggest problem with storm surge will be along and east of the eye. Evacuations could begin in the New Orleans area as early as Saturday, with possible evacuations for the Mississippi coast Sunday. It is also a possibility that an evacuation order will be needed for the Alabama coast Sunday. Emergency management officials will be making some big decisions tomorrow.
IMPACT ON NORTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA: If Gustav moves into Louisiana or Mississippi, we can expect lots of wind and rain Tuesday, and perhaps Wednesday. But, we note the GFS (the model that turns Gustav to the left, toward the Texas coast), keeps much of North and Central Alabama generally dry. We will continue to mention a good chance of rain Tuesday and Wednesday with potential for high wind, but we will be adjusting that forecast as the track of Gustav becomes more clear in coming days.
Core of Engineers are saying that the West Bank Leeves can only withstand a Category 1 Hurricane.
-------------------------------
looks like gustav staying in good shape for now and scraping the coast.....according to some mets....supposedly this happens alot with canes for whatever reason its topography or whatever....hurricanes that look like they dead set to go straight over the length of jamaica tend to skirt along the coast after they make initial landfall
-------------------------------
looks like gustav staying in good shape for now and scraping the coast.....according to some mets....supposedly this happens alot with canes for whatever reason its topography or whatever....hurricanes that look like they dead set to go straight over the length of jamaica tend to skirt along the coast after they make initial landfall
the joos have hurricanes too? :think2:
gustav starting to increase in size as it leaves jamaica
track keeps moving a bit more west for now they think it'll kinda skim the LA coast as it makes landfall in western LA
seems like its gonna have to strengthen now from till when it enters the gulf from what i'm reading
the sheer environment etc...in gulf especially near the coast....not condusive to strengthening supposedly
but like we saw with katrina a big sized cane "weakening" from a monster it was earlier as it approaches brings a shitton of water and wake with it
the even freakier part is the potential track for hanna soon after
track keeps moving a bit more west for now they think it'll kinda skim the LA coast as it makes landfall in western LA
seems like its gonna have to strengthen now from till when it enters the gulf from what i'm reading
the sheer environment etc...in gulf especially near the coast....not condusive to strengthening supposedly
but like we saw with katrina a big sized cane "weakening" from a monster it was earlier as it approaches brings a shitton of water and wake with it
the even freakier part is the potential track for hanna soon after
looking good now looks like Category 1 cane on the radar but no data to back it up yet
main hope for gulf coast is the gulf environment looking less condusive to maintaining a major hurricane
it'll ramp up to cat 3 or higher pretty clear and its grown quite a bit in size....main question is how much intensity does it keep as it approaches land and where it approaches.....
but weakening or not if they bomb out as big cat 5s they bring a shitton of water with um as katrina showed
we'll see how big and strong it gets before it starts to decrease in strength as it approaches land seems to be the name of the game right now
main hope for gulf coast is the gulf environment looking less condusive to maintaining a major hurricane
it'll ramp up to cat 3 or higher pretty clear and its grown quite a bit in size....main question is how much intensity does it keep as it approaches land and where it approaches.....
but weakening or not if they bomb out as big cat 5s they bring a shitton of water with um as katrina showed
we'll see how big and strong it gets before it starts to decrease in strength as it approaches land seems to be the name of the game right now
4 mb central pressure drop in past 50 minutes
starting to bomb out a bit it seems
could see cat 3 or 4 by late tonight early tomorrow
only been off jamaican cost for 6 hours or so now slowly getting its act in gear
and NW caribbean typically very fertile grounds for canes
starting to bomb out a bit it seems
could see cat 3 or 4 by late tonight early tomorrow
only been off jamaican cost for 6 hours or so now slowly getting its act in gear
and NW caribbean typically very fertile grounds for canes
down to 969.5 mb at last reading probably cat 2 at this point takes some time for wind to catch up
katrina got down to 902 and hit at around 920
its grown to be a pretty biggin but not as big as katrina yet....
looks like peak intensity will be cat 4 at worst....will likely reach peak intensity likely in the southern gulf after hitting cuba and than taper off as it approaches land....hitting land as cat 3....probably will bring a good sized wake with it to being so big....plus the wetlands have taken a good beating of late that provides sort of a barrier
lets just hope it hits at LA/TX more towards TX border where there isn't much as far as people and far enough west to spare NO to some degree if not totally and also hope it doesn't stall out once over land....
either way where ever it hits gonna disrupt oil production and cause a near term spike in prices at the pump as far as impact on us all.....
katrina got down to 902 and hit at around 920
its grown to be a pretty biggin but not as big as katrina yet....
looks like peak intensity will be cat 4 at worst....will likely reach peak intensity likely in the southern gulf after hitting cuba and than taper off as it approaches land....hitting land as cat 3....probably will bring a good sized wake with it to being so big....plus the wetlands have taken a good beating of late that provides sort of a barrier
lets just hope it hits at LA/TX more towards TX border where there isn't much as far as people and far enough west to spare NO to some degree if not totally and also hope it doesn't stall out once over land....
either way where ever it hits gonna disrupt oil production and cause a near term spike in prices at the pump as far as impact on us all.....
really starting to look good (well bad for US) down to 952 with cat 3 winds at last reading
but looks like cat 4 and should be bombing out pretty good right now might make it to cat 5 at some point at this rate....
this does not look good at all.....can only hope it really weakens and hits tx/la coast as best case for now it seems
but looks like cat 4 and should be bombing out pretty good right now might make it to cat 5 at some point at this rate....
this does not look good at all.....can only hope it really weakens and hits tx/la coast as best case for now it seems
