THE War
Amazingly this is the game that I know best in the entire season. I hit the damn game right on the head the first time around and will probably do something similar again, though there's always a level of uncertainty when these two teams match up. Anyway, here it goes... My hopefully unbiased analysis of the I-4 War this time that hopefully takes me less than an hour to type and you less than a half hour to read... Luke, I'm interested in your reactions.
Preds Offense vs. Storm Defense
Advantage: Tampa, except inside the 10
Joe Hamilton enters this game having put together back to back solid outings. The two picks against LA were both amazing picks by Hopkins, and is Joe Hamilton's biggest problem... his height. The guy can't help that he's about 5'2" and has baby-sized hands. Anyway, don't think that Marcum and the rest of the Storm don't know that. The Preds offensive line has struggled lately, causing Joe to throw the ball quicker than he wants, and the experienced Lawrence Samuel should be able to reek havoc from the jack linebacker spot. Kelvin Kinney needs to play for Tampa to really pressure Hamilton, as EJ Burt and Doug Miller simply can't handle him. I like Tampa's D in this game to turn up big behind the home crowd, as it's simply been really tough to do anything well against Tampa at the Forum this year. Inside the 10 I like the Preds in this one though, pending the health of Idris Price and Marlon Moye-Moore, both of which got banged up last week against LA. If they're both healthy, look for the Preds to do nothing but run fades to Fleming and pound the ball. This is their strength, and a strength that most teams can't counter. Tampa will hurt inside the 10 missing the size of Toliver and Saunders to cover Fleming, and he should go wild. If Hamilton gets time to throw, Jimmy Fryzel and Jarrian James can have HUGE days for the Preds in those patented crossing patterns that the Preds run. Elephange is going to have a hard time keeping up with, likely Fryzel, but if the line gets the pressure I think they will, they'll succeed defensively.
Tampa Offense vs. Preds D
Advantage: Preds, ESPECIALLY inside the 10 yard line
Ever since being widely recognized as one of the best offensive units in the AFL, Shane Stafford has led the troops to two dud games offensively since Marcum left. Look for the return of Marcum to bring back better playcalling and such to keep the offense rolling. Shane Stafford will find himself on his back a lot this week, as the smaller Preds linemen that can't block for Joe, can certainly get upfield and rush the passer. It is IMPERATIVE for Tampa to get SOME semblance of a running game together, for if they don't, Shane Stafford's going to be asking for Mommy when the game is over. This goes hand in hand with Tampa's other key. They can't get stopped when they get inside the 10. They had 13 plays inside the 5 yard line against Georgia and didn't score a TD from inside the 5 the entire game. This simply won't cut it against their arch rivals. Orlando's rush defense is stout, led by one of the mack linebackers usually (Price or Moye-Moore) and always makes it difficult inside the 10, especially with 6'4" Cory Fleming playing jack linebacker, making all patterns over the middle difficult to complete. The extra delay that Fleming causes by being huge usually gets the pressure on the opposing QB. The Preds historically can't stop Clif Dell, and he needs to step up once again. Tampa can't afford to play cute with the Preds. They need to play solid football on the offensive end, knowing that they're giving up hits and sacks to Stafford. But if Sugar Shane stands tall and delivers good balls instead of short arming some like he did in Orlando, the offense can have success, especially on the deep balls to Solomon and Elephage. Trying too many 3 step drops WILL cause Harris or McEntyre to jump routes and grab a pick at some point. Tampa must divert from this.
Special Teams
Advantage: Tampa
This is going to be the key to the game. Guaranteed. Orlando's kick coverage team has been solid all season. Tampa's kick returning is solid, but not the greatest in the league. Solomon or whomever is back there for the Storm must know that he needs to get away from that 5 yard line to keep the pressure off of a possible safety if things go wrong. Same can be said for the Preds kick return game, which has been pretty miserable at best in my eyes. Jarrian James and Jimmy Fryzel still have NO clue how to get the ball off of the nets. Matt George has a great streak going of PATs (hope to jinx him!) while Brian Gowins almost got himself run out of Orlando when he missed the PAT at the end of regulation against LA. If George outkicks Gowins, Tampa's in fine shape.
Intangibles
Advantage: Tampa, but not by as much as you'd think....
Yeah, yeah... Marcum's return, homefield advantage, and all of that bullcrap. The truth of the matter says that Orlando has basically the same team they did the last time these teams played, except for the addition of Harris and loss of Mason. Harris makes the defense quicker and better in coverage, but loses that "enforcer" to make the huge lick when a WR comes near. Tampa's a completely different squad. Kinney could be back. Solomon is back. Toliver wasn't there to start off with, but he's gone. Saunders is gone. CRITICAL parts of the game for Tampa. Elephage is key. Should he be able to step in and even play marginal on both sides of the ball, Tampa's in great shape.
Coaching
Advantage: None
Yeah, Marcum's the 2nd greatest coach in AFL history (sorry Luke, he's good, but in terms of x's and o's, give me Danny White) and Jay Gruden is... well... probably gonna get fired around the same time his brother does in Tampa. Gruden is a gambler, I'll give him that. Goes for it on 4th down a ton. But in this game where these two coaches know each other like the back of their hands, I'd say slight advantage to Marcum for having 3 weeks to plan for this one, but advantage to Gruden for having the balls to pull out the stops necessary to win in a hostile environment like Tampa.
So... keys to the game that aren't your understood stuff about turnovers and such...
If Tampa does the following, they'll win
1) Protect Shane Stafford
2) Clog Hamilton's passing lanes
3) RUN the ball and use a different snap count
4) Score inside the 10
If Orlando does the following, they'll win
1) Avoid having to make the 4th down decision
2) Kick your PATs!
3) Play press coverage and force Stafford to take 5 steps and time
4) Give Hamilton throwing lanes
So my infallible prediction?
Tampa will come out on fire and probably score really quick like LA did. After that, I expect Orlando to get stopped on downs and Tampa to go up a real quick 14-0. Orlando will get to Stafford a few times and cause a couple turnovers. By the 4th quarter, I expect Orlando's kicking woes to continue, being an extra point or two down with the score flipping from Orlando by 5 to Tampa by 2, etc. Down the stretch Gruden will lose his balls and kick a FG putting the Preds up a point or so with one drive left... Winner of that drive wins. I'll take the Preds D standing strong, but Matt George winning an ugly one for the Storm.
As much as it pains me...
Tampa 46
Orlando 45
