Help me cut down my learning curve...Is there any value in ...????

[drunkguy]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Jazz:
drunkguy: agree pro vs. college, but 7 can be worth shit in college under 2 conditions: you pay about 10 cents for a side, 15 cents for a 6.5/7.5 middle on a national 'big game', where the numbers tend to be sharper. Case in point: OU vs. Bama, won by 7 on a late spread of 7 - nope, never found anything worth hitting, so I didn't cash on that one. Especially games with really good defenses.

I prefer to pay even less if possible, of course.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

agreed 100%

 

[BillDozer]

jazz,
I also agree 100%. BUt you cant blame me for trying.
I never asked scalp questions for this reason and know what I know from "practice". Scalps don't have to occur but middles opps will be there till the end because lines move and since books buy and sell action both ways I didn't think it was that bad. (for any book i would actually use anyway) The reasons you mentioned are the reasons I think all these livelines programs are ultimately a bad thing overall.

Though I do agree with you and appreciate the info you were able to pass I didn't expect that coming from the person who enlightened so many with the "jazz manifesto".

Thanks guys
NOt capping football I was looking for something to do in the offseason of hoops and knowing that 3 and 7 are worth 20 and 10 but no more is a good base.

 

[Jazz]

yeah, Bill, no problem - but there is the law of diminishing return at work in this area, as well as the law of 'don't shit where you work', which though I don't regret doing the manifesto, I'll never again post something like that.

As far as baseball sides on totals go, a prior poster was right - if you can knock off a 7 or 9 here and there for 15 cents or less, it's worth a try, but it's very difficult finding them.

 

[BillDozer]

At first glance that sounds weird to me. Why does the laegue average come into play when the more specific 2 team avg is right there in the line. If the spread is 6.5 and 6 for 2 good pitching teams I would think the chances of hitting the spread would be as good if the spread is 9??

but thats not the case? The spread pushes more often when it is 9 the #s say??

interesting...

 

[Jazz]

Actually, oddly simple reason: games will not end on ties, which means that even-numbered totals hit less often, like a 6.

So a 3-3 kills a 6 side, while it favors a 4-3 total late

 

[BillDozer]

so then a spred of 5 with randy johnson bitching vs babe ruth pitching would be valuable as well.

 

[Jazz]

Actually, yes, you're dead right

 

[BillDozer]

Randy JOhnson died? SHIt!!

 

[BillDozer]

speaking of key numbers

In today's CTnmagazine there is a light article on the power of 3. Says 15% of games aredecided by 3 so if your trying for a side you have a 7.5% chance. That number is from 1981-1998