Hedging

[sensible]

Can anyone answer a question to help me design a hedging system please?

QUESTION.....the odds of what teams are the most likely to SHORTEN in the few days
before the match on a Saturday. (or LENGTHEN) (on Betfair)

Strong favourites?
Long outsiders?

Eng Prem?
Scotland.?
Smaller leagues?

...or what if any?

 

[acw]

Listen!

Here at the RX we only advocate straight betting and none of this traders type of sh*t.
If you want some high class bets, I suggest you follow a poster called chriscol, as he has a proven winning record!

 

[quantumleap]

sensible:

I would be interested in hearing what others have to say about these subjects as well.

 

[scripter]

I agree very interested question

 

[matahari]

I remember JackDee was to try neural networks to predict line movements. Ask him if he's still around.

 

[acw]

matahari,

Good to see you back!

Do you have any idea what happened to Duckstabber, JackDee, JackDaw and Erol i.e.?

 

[fookineejit]

Hi,

Can't speak for the others but i can exclusively reveal that i fookin eejit am the reincarnation of jackdaw (I forgot my password).

On the subject of line moves who knows which way a line will go. Other than the usual factors such as injuries, weather, public team etc. I find moves difficult to predict.

 

[matahari]

matahari, Good to see you back! Do you have any idea what happened to Duckstabber, JackDee, JackDaw and Erol i.e.?

Hi acw,

Sorry for late reply, JackDee posts once in a while under the nick babadragon.

Myself rarely check this soccer subforum because it had lost whatever little quality it had before.

P.D. Anyone got complete Mr. Sharp's record ?

 

[acw]

Myself rarely check this soccer subforum because it had lost whatever little quality it had before.
Personally I think the whole forum has gone dramatically down hill compared to when I joined back in 2001.

 

[acw]

Hi,

Can't speak for the others but i can exclusively reveal that i fookin eejit am the reincarnation of jackdaw (I forgot my password).

On the subject of line moves who knows which way a line will go. Other than the usual factors such as injuries, weather, public team etc. I find moves difficult to predict.

I see that you are rather active on the BetFair forum in the Betfair Racing Year On Year Figures indicate decline thread.

There is only one interesting post in that whole thread that says it all:

20 Sep 13:27


In the frog v morris debate IMO you are both half right.
I have laid a horse today for £185 @ 1.55 which i think should be at least 1.7.
If I leave myself with this open position (which I should) I will pay about £4 commission.
I can close it out at 1.61 and guarantee myself a small profit but, more importantly, save myself over £3.50 in commission.
Another way of looking at this is that the saved commission is nearly half the perceived margin (between 1.61 and 1.7) between good and bad value.
The commission entices those with a non-trading mentality like myself to become traders hence reducing the turnover - AND PROFIT - to BF.
They need to adopt a commission system that doesn't favour traders as much as the present one, but not one, ie flat rate per trade, that would push things too far the other way.

Personally I have been telling BetFair many times to change the commission structure. They seem to be of the opinion that there is one group of completely crazy gamblers that is willing to bet at any price (so just charge them whatever commission) and the other group is smart (so if we do not give them any favours, they will not use us). What they totally forget is that probably the largest group of gamblers these days all understand the importance of line shopping. BetFair OFTEN does not offer the best price.