Heatwave 2021 CFB Handicapping Thread

[Heatwave]

Another CFB season is upon us, and my hope is that it more resembles the 2019 season, both in the way the game is played (fans, Covid cancellations, opt-outs, Covid protocols) and my handicapping performance. My favorite part of last year was when you would have a play on a team, the game would not be cancelled, and then you find out that the team only had the minimum amount of players due to Covid protocols. It was a difficult year to watch and cap, and I gave up before the bowl games, and went lightly. Just could never find that edge.

The odd years have been kind to me overall in CFB, with 2 CFB contest wins here at the RX in 2017 and 2019 and a takedown (actually a first place tie) of the William Hill CFB handicapping contest in Vegas in 2019. So, let's hope that trend continues here in 2021.

My threads and records for last 5 years.

2016: http://www.therxforum.com/showthread...light=Heatwave
2017 :http://www.therxforum.com/showthread...light=Heatwave
2018: http://www.therxforum.com/showthread...light=Heatwave
2019: http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1142423
2020: http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1165130&highlight=Heatwave

2016 Record - 168-120 +$6,970 - 58.33%
2017 Record - 169-132 +$3,710 - 56.15%
2018 Record - 109-98 +$276 - 52.66%
2019 Record - 114-96 +$3,250 - 54.29%
2020 Record - 43-54 -$2,085 - 44.3%


2 plays to open the season in the shortened week. As always, 1 unit = $100 and all lines are the current available lines at time of post at Betonline, which is my favorite book. I usually don't write up the plays, as most of my handicapping is number based and it takes too long anyway. But love to discuss games and thoughts on them.


8/28:

HAWAII +18 +100 Over Ucla - $100/$100
SAN JOSE STATE -20.5 -120 Over Southern Utah - $240/$200


Good luck to all this year.

HW

 

[indiana]

H/Wave........BOL with all your action this week and season buddy.........indy

 

[Knightrofins]

Heatwave,

Long time my friend

I always loved reading your threads

Best of luck this season

 

[VegasKnows]

Heatwave, nice record, 2020 was hard on all of us.

As far as COVID, note that most conferences (if not all) are not testing vaxed players. (SEC excluded?) If they were in close contact with an unvaxed who tests positive, then I think they get tested. Or if they get sick enough they get tested. Otherwise the vaxed do not get tested.
So for the most part 100% vaxed teams are not getting tested unless someone pops up sick. Don't see many 18-20 yr olds asking to be tested if they have scratchy throat, mild symptoms, etc. Would have to be SICK.
Schools in SEC with at least 85% vaxed, I BELIEVE-correct me if wrong, that entire team not required to be tested unless someone pops up sick.
The ACC says unvaxed on teams below 85% get tested 3 times a week, on teams at or above 85% the unvaxed gets tested once a week.

With these rules, if they hold, don't think it'll be as bad as last yr.

Good Luck this yr!!!

 

[daneault23]

Damn. Was hoping to get SJSU live in game at a good number because my book posted the game late and had the movement with it and closed at -28. That's over 1 TD off what you got so was holding off. Book never posted live lines or even a 2nd half number. Nice hit regardless.

 

[Heatwave]

Thanks. Wish you would have gotten in.

Good time to talk about these extra games. Like I said, I use Betonline, which posts these games fairly early in the week. Most books either post these games late or not at all, and if they do post them, they will open them at the current lines, which many times are a lot worse. This game went from 20.5 to 24 in the blink of an eye. I probably wouldn't have played this game at -24.5, which was widely available yesterday morning, and going forward I will probably state a number that would be my upper limit. I like having an out that will get these options to you early, so BOL is a must for these type games.

Damn. Was hoping to get SJSU live in game at a good number because my book posted the game late and had the movement with it and closed at -28. That's over 1 TD off what you got so was holding off. Book never posted live lines or even a 2nd half number. Nice hit regardless.

 

[Heatwave]

WEEK 0 - 1-1 +$100 ($340 RISKED) - 29.41% ROI


Putting most plays out here with the lines I have. I will add some Saturday games on Saturday AM (with widely available lines at that time), and the extra games as the lines become available. Lots of plays, just be careful.

THURSDAY:

TEMPLE +14 -105 Over Rutgers - $315/$300
OHIO STATE/MINNESOTA OVER 64.5 -105 - $210/$200

FRIDAY:

UNC/VIRGINIA TECH UNDER 64 - $110/$100
MICHIGAN STATE +3 -109 Over Northwestern - $109/$100
MICHIGAN STATE/NORTHWESTERN OVER 45 -105 - $210/$200

SATURDAY:

STANFORD/KANSAS STATE UNDER 53 - $110/$100
NAVY +2.5 -105 Over Marshall - $105/$100
ALABAMA/MIAMI, FL. UNDER 61.5 -113 - $113/$100
SYRACUSE -1.5 Over Ohio - $110/$100
KENT STATE/TEXAS A&M UNDER 67 +100 - $100/$100
ARIZONA +12.5 -105 Over BYU - $105/$100
NEVADA/CAL UNDER 53 - $110/$100

MONDAY:

LOUISVILLE/MISSISSIPPI UNDER 75.5 - $110/$100

 

[indiana]

H/Wave.......BOL with all our action this weekend buddy........indy

 

[Heatwave]

Adding Extra Plays for TH/FRI Get down early:

Thursday:

BALL STATE -25.5 -115 Over Western Illinois - $230/$200
NEW MEXICO -14.5 -135 Over Houston Baptist - $540/$400 - hate laying $135 but have to do it here

Friday:

EASTERN MICHIGAN -30.5 -115 Over St. Francis PA - $230/$200
COLORADO STATE +3 -115 Over South Dakota State - $115/$100

 

[Kaboom]

Thanks. Wish you would have gotten in.

Good time to talk about these extra games. Like I said, I use Betonline, which posts these games fairly early in the week. Most books either post these games late or not at all, and if they do post them, they will open them at the current lines, which many times are a lot worse. This game went from 20.5 to 24 in the blink of an eye. I probably wouldn't have played this game at -24.5, which was widely available yesterday morning, and going forward I will probably state a number that would be my upper limit. I like having an out that will get these options to you early, so BOL is a must for these type games.

Heat ... I'm looking for a reliable decent online casino .... that handles US gamers ....betonline is foreign , correct ? ......... Do you like them ?

 

[TrickyGator]

GL this season heatwave and thanks for sharing your plays with us! love checking your thread each week!

 

[Heatwave]

Heat ... I'm looking for a reliable decent online casino .... that handles US gamers ....betonline is foreign , correct ? ......... Do you like them ?

BOL is foreign, yes. I can't speak to their online casino, as I stay away from there. But I love the sportsbook - lots of options, fast to post lines, quick payouts and deposits, and customer service that does a good job if an issue arises. I have had a few misgrades that they have fixed quickly.

HW

 

[Heatwave]

Needed to get down in a hurry on these.

Took a peek at the lines on these games now:

Ball State is now at -31.5 -125
New Mexico is now -24 -120
Eastern Michigan is only -31 -125 now
Colorado State is now a -2.5 -125 favorite

I do think the first 3 games are total blowouts, but a ton of value has been sucked out of them. A middle is not out of the question here on these either if you got low numbers. A TD middle is huge. If you didn't get in yet, I would probably knock back Ball State to a 1 unit, NM to a 2 unit, leave EM and Col State as is.

Adding Extra Plays for TH/FRI Get down early:

Thursday:

BALL STATE -25.5 -115 Over Western Illinois - $230/$200
NEW MEXICO -14.5 -135 Over Houston Baptist - $540/$400 - hate laying $135 but have to do it here

Friday:

EASTERN MICHIGAN -30.5 -115 Over St. Francis PA - $230/$200
COLORADO STATE +3 -115 Over South Dakota State - $115/$100

 

[daneault23]

WEEK 0 - 1-1 +$100 ($340 RISKED) - 29.41% ROI


Putting most plays out here with the lines I have. I will add some Saturday games on Saturday AM (with widely available lines at that time), and the extra games as the lines become available. Lots of plays, just be careful.

THURSDAY:

TEMPLE +14 -105 Over Rutgers - $315/$300
OHIO STATE/MINNESOTA OVER 64.5 -105 - $210/$200

FRIDAY:

UNC/VIRGINIA TECH UNDER 64 - $110/$100
MICHIGAN STATE +3 -109 Over Northwestern - $109/$100
MICHIGAN STATE/NORTHWESTERN OVER 45 -105 - $210/$200

SATURDAY:

STANFORD/KANSAS STATE UNDER 53 - $110/$100
NAVY +2.5 -105 Over Marshall - $105/$100
ALABAMA/MIAMI, FL. UNDER 61.5 -113 - $113/$100
SYRACUSE -1.5 Over Ohio - $110/$100
KENT STATE/TEXAS A&M UNDER 67 +100 - $100/$100
ARIZONA +12.5 -105 Over BYU - $105/$100
NEVADA/CAL UNDER 53 - $110/$100

MONDAY:

LOUISVILLE/MISSISSIPPI UNDER 75.5 - $110/$100

Because of the postponed game the other day, does your Temple +14 play still hold or do you have other thoughts? Isn't the game now at 12 noon EST which is 9am PST?

 

[Heatwave]

I am going to hold it for my record at +14, but I believe it is widely available at +15. Still like it.

 

[Heatwave]

FINAL SATURDAY PLAYS:

ARMY +2.5 +100 Over Georgia State - $100/$100
OKLAHOMA -32 -115 Over Tulane - $115/$100
MIAMI, FL +19.5 -107 Over Alabama - $107/$100
CENTRAL MICHIGAN +14 Over Missouri - $550/$500
LA LAFAYETTE +8.5 -113 Over Texas - $339/$300
WASHINGTON STATE -18 Over Utah State - $110/$100

EXTRA GAMES:

IOWA STATE -30 +100 Over Northern Iowa - $100/$100
TROY -25 -115 Over Southern - $115/$100
WASHINGTON -22.5 -105 Over Montana - $105/$100
HAWAII -25.5 -125 Over Portland State -$250/$200

Good luck.

HW

 

[Heatwave]

WEEK 0 - 1-1 +$100 ($340 RISKED)
WEEK 1 - 14-13 -$661 ($4823 RISKED)

TOTAL 15-14 -$561 ($5163 RISKED) -10.87% ROI

Interestingly, the big board games were great - 13-6 to be exact. The games involving FBS versus FCS were terrible - 1-7. Not sure exactly why, maybe the FCS is getting closer in terms of talent, or maybe the FBS teams aren't as prepared or good or possibly holding back for future games. Not sure. As of right now, BOL only has tonight FCS vs FBS games, which are both passes, so will look closer at these tomorrow when the lines come out. More to come Saturday AM.

SATURDAY:

PITT/TENNESSEE UNDER 56.5 - $110/$100
GEORGIA SOUTHERN/FAU OVER 48 -105 - $105/$100
TULSA/OKLAHOMA STATE OVER 51 - $110/$100
BALL STATE/PENN STATE OVER 58 -112 - $112/$100
TEXAS STATE/FIU OVER 55 -112 - $112/$100
LIBERTY/TROY UNDER 62 -108 - $108/$100
GEORGIA STATE/NORTH CAROLINA UNDER 66.5 -108 - $108/$100
VANDERBILT/COLORADO STATE OVER 51.5 - $330/$300
STANFORD/USC UNDER 53.5 - $110/$100

 

[indiana]

H/wave......BOL with your O/U's this week buddy.......indy

 

[Heatwave]

Additions:

BIG BOARD:

SYRACUSE +2.5 -108 Over Rutgers - $324/$300
UTAH -6.5 -115 Over BYU - $230/$200
NC STATE -1 -108 Over Mississippi State - $216/$200
TEMPLE -6.5 Over Akron - $110/$100
SAN DIEGO STATE +1.5 Over Arizona - $110/$100

SMALL BOARD:

DUQUESNE +28.5 Over Ohio - $110/$100
CENTRAL MICHIGAN -37.5 -115 Over Robert Morris - $230/$200
CINCINNATI -36.5 -120 Over Murray State - $120/$100
MERCER +55 -115 Over Alabama - $115/$100
KANSAS STATE -16.5 -130 Over Southern Illinois - $260/$200
TEXAS TECH -31.5 -115 Over SFA - $115/$100
FRESNO STATE -31.5 -115 Over Cal Poly - $230/$200

 

[Heatwave]

WEEK 0 - 1-1 +$100 ($340 RISKED)
WEEK 1 - 14-13 -$661 ($4823 RISKED)
WEEK 2 - 7-12-1 -$1244 ($3267 RISKED)

TOTAL 22-26 -$-1,805 ($8,330 RISKED) -21.67% ROI

Terrible start. Over/unders were really bad.

WEEK 3:

FRIDAY:

MARYLAND/ILLINOIS OVER 61 -118 - $236/$200

SATURDAY:

MICHIGAN STATE/MIAMI, FL OVER 57 -105 - $105/$100
NORTHERN ILLINOIS +27.5 -108 Over Michigan - $108/$100
NORTHERN ILLINOIS/MICHIGAN OVER 54 -105 - $315/$300
CINCINNATI -4.5 Over Indiana - $110/$100
FLORIDA +14.5 -114 Over Alabama - $114/$100
IOWA -22.5 -112 Over Kent State - $112/$100
TULSA/OHIO STATE OVER 61 - $110/$100
LIBERTY -27.5 -115 Over Old Dominion - $115/$100
TROY/SOUTHERN MISS UNDER 50.5 -115 - $115/$100

More adds on Saturday AM.