HCSkip's 2015 MLB Thread

[hcskip]

I'm slowly getting out of the basement with my plays this season.

I made the mistake of putting my pre-season game picks in the RX tracker for MLB. Blech, 2-7. That won't happen again. I was trying a system that was comparing the hitting performance of teams, rather than pitcher performance, thinking that would be more of a predictor. But because managers are constantly trying out new players (offensive and defensive), any pre-season pick is just going to be a coin toss. And I'm not that lucky - I get too many red lights when I drive, and my bread always falls buttered side down. So my picks have to be good ones!

My RL (reallife) work has been so oppressive this year, I may not be able to look at more than a few games at a time. Hopefully that will change through the season.

My tracker plays will be repeated here, with annotations if time permits.

Best of luck to everyone! :toast:

Questions / responses welcome - being informed of injuries / last minute key player changes always appreciated (if I don't note them in the pick).

Current YTD: 66-59-2 (+$3215)


---HCSkip

 

[hcskip]

5/12/15:

7:10 nyy / tb over 7 (+102) ($300->$306)

bol!

 

[hcskip]

10:10PM Angels (-180) ($900->$500)

Expensive...but pretty solid.

BOL!!!

 

[hcskip]

Tuesday Recap:

7:10 nyy / tb over 7 (+102) ($300->$306) LOSS (6 total)
10:10PM Angels (-180) ($900->$500) WIN!

1-1-0 (+$200)

YTD: 67-60-2 (+$3415)

 

[hcskip]

Wednesday 5/13/2015:

3:35 Oakland A's (-150) ($450->$300)

BOL!!!

 

[hcskip]

Adding:

6:10PM Cardinals (+122) ($500->$610)

BOL!!!!

 

[hcskip]

I should have known I was playing with dynamite with Kluber on the mound.

Let's see....Mariners strong at home, against aggressive FB pitcher. With a misleading ERA for T Walker...gonna pass.

Checking stats on Angels...worth a shot.

10:10 Angels (-167) ($835->$500)

BOL!

 

[RussellPeters]

Nice record on the year. Thanks for posting and good luck! Appreciate the insights and info.

 

[hcskip]

Thanks, RP!

3:35P Oakland A's (-150) ($450->$300) Loss :-(
6:10P Cardinals (+122) ($500->$610) Loss (yeah, Kluber....)
10:10P Angels (-167) ($835->$500) WIN!

5/13 recap: 1-2-0 (-$450) YTD: 68-62-2 (+$2765)


For Thursday - the early play - Wacha has been solid for Cards this year. I figure Bauer to be strong but not enough to overcome the Cards' bats today, and they'll be looking for payback from the shellacking yesterday. Throwing in a modest RL for good measure.

12:15P Cards (-112) ($560-$500)
12:15P Cards -1.5 RL (+142) ($200->$284)

Should have more later....
BOL!

 

[Pstar]

With ya on Cards - GL!

 

[hcskip]

Thanks, Pstar!

The Cards line moved south a little bit, which is not what I expected. I just rechecked fundamentals and everything still looks strong for St. Louis.

GLTA....

 

[hcskip]

Adding:

1:05P Phillies 1ST 5 INNINGS +.5 (-145) ($435->$300)
1:08P Twins (+160) ($300->$480)

BOL!!!!

 

[hcskip]

The Phillies 1st five play was an easy winner. Got the Cards (that Bauer for the Indians was one hot pitcher, wasn't he?), but the 1.5RL proved elusive (typical). Twins game is still on but there's no way they're going to make a 7 run deficit - that one never really had a chance. Should have left it at my original choice of a $200 play but Pelfrey had really good numbers, and it was a great value.

So, overall a positive for the afternoon, +$300 so far....

Have to work late, but will try to find something else for tonight....

 

[hcskip]

Adding:

7:10P NYY (-126) ($504->$400)
10:10P Boston / Seattle OVER 8 (-103) ($412->$400)

BOL!!!!

 

[hcskip]

This looks like a fish-in-a-barrel play (hence the expensive line). I'm going to play it low, just in case....

Adding:

10:10P Dodgers - listed pitchers (-202) ($404->$200)
10:10P Dodgers -1.5RL (+102) ($200->$204)

BOL!

 

[hcskip]

A decent beginning to yesterday, and then things got horrible.

The -202 Dodgers play lost - killed at the top of the 9th when, with only one out to go, the Rockies rallied and nailed a home run with 2 men on base. I blame the rain delay, which killed the Dodgers momentum and gave the Rockies a chance to regroup. Have to be very wary of high odds games like that. Though as for the Yankees and Boston Over plays - that was a miss on me.

At work now - will recap and post Friday plays later.

 

[hcskip]

Still working - recap later....

2:20p Pirates / Cubs 1ST FIVE INNING UNDER 5.5 (-125) ($625->$500)

BOL!!!!

 

[hcskip]

Jeez, what a horrible slump I'm in. I can't buy a run when I go for the over; and then from a game with two pitchers who should be able to hold it together for 4 innings both teams hit homers like there is no tomorrow.

I may have to back off for a bit.

 

[hcskip]

Adding:

7:10P NYY (-127) ($645->$500)
7:10P Atlanta (+124) ($300->$372)
7:10P Atlanta / Miami OVER 7.5 (+102) ($300->$306)

BOL!!!

 

[hcskip]

Adding:

7:10P NY Mets (-127) ($635->$500)

(sorry for these late notices - still at work - Fridays...argh!0