16 starters returning from a very competitive 1-11 team(that sounds kinda funny doesnt it). their offense is going to be very good in year 2 of jones schemes and i believe qb mitchell will greatly improve on his td/int ratio(24/23). they add in some good transfer talent on both sides of the ball. they played very well at home last year and had some very close losses(including houston and tulsa). they have lost 17 straight conf games but i see them at having a great chance at 4-4/5-3 this year. they are going to be underrated in the lines especially early imo. take some time and look over their roster, i believe this team will be very good ats this year(especially as dogs).
the reason why i chose the tcu game i explained above. tcu has to play at virginia and clemson 1st 3 games while smu will have an xtra week to heal up and prepare, tcu will not and jones spread offense could present some problems for what should be a little tired tcu squad. i'm thinking we get smu at some generous points here and play this game alot closer than what people think. jmo.
you have a very good #10 there gs with kansas at utep. i'm going to throw another big 12 vs conf usa...
texas tech @ houston
tech has to play texas the week prior while houston will be on a bye and already off a tilt @ high powered ok st. so the familiarity will be there along with the xtra prep time. now the houston defense isn't going to scare no one but the offense should do just fine and this could be one of those "last team with the ball wins" kinda games. also if texas whips tech(which imo they do)we could have a little letdown here.
texas tech @ houston
tech has to play texas the week prior while houston will be on a bye and already off a tilt @ high powered ok st. so the familiarity will be there along with the xtra prep time. now the houston defense isn't going to scare no one but the offense should do just fine and this could be one of those "last team with the ball wins" kinda games. also if texas whips tech(which imo they do)we could have a little letdown here.
Clemson will kick the shit out of Middle Tennessee State, something like 49-10 or worse. It's the first game of the year. The Clemson players and fans will be fired up for the start of the season regardless of the quick turnaround with GT on deck. If you have ever played football at a very high level, there is nothing like the first game of the year, regardless of who you play. You don't look past week one. That is the game you think about and prepare for all of August. The quick turnaround is enough to get me off Clemson in that game, but does not justify a "hope to get lucky play" on Mid Tenn State. The talent differential is immense, make no mistake about it.
The only problems with these games involving Sunbelt teams is you really don't know if they are just there to show up and get a paycheck, or they came to play. I know in Florida Atlantic's case, Howard Shellenberger is a paycheck whore. He'll go anywhere to play a game if the money is right. And FAU has a terrible ATS record vs BCS conference teams. Mainly because Shelly would rather save his players for the conference games. Don't be surprised that if Nebraska has a 2 TD lead or more in that first game, that Smellyberger pulls his QB Rusty Smith at the half. That's what your dealing with in making these kinds of bets. The general rule is to either bet against SBC teams or leave the game alone. The only possible exception to the rule might be Troy. They have a coach who thinks they can beat anyone. So they are a little more dangerous to bet against because they're going to give 100% effort in every game.. Especially if they ever get one of these BCS teams at home.
I saw that. That's perfect if you ask me. Tech should blow those two teams out, which will keep the line as low as physically possible for the Texas game. I just don't see Tech being at all competitive in Austin. There is not a single facet of the game where they have an advantage over Texas this upcoming year.
just got done with my memphis preview and i have to tell you if i'm getting the +17(again according to the early big game spreads) the tigers will be the play for me. although they only return 12 starters they return key elements to last yrs team and have a ridiculous infusion of top bcs transfers and good juco signings. of course everything will have to blend together but i'm still not sure if ole miss will handle the top 10 role well. lines should be overinflated early and this tigers team can very well play within this large spread. even though they lost by 17 last year the tigers outgained the reb's and this year get them @home. imo this definitely falls into this threads category.
I'm looking at many of the same things that you are about this game. Personally, I thought the linesmakers would be a little more realistic and would have made this around a 14 point spread. Especially considering that Ole Miss only won this game by 17 points at home last season, but the game is now being played at Memphis, and the two teams have a history of playing close games. I still think that maybe people have a little bit of a distorted view of the real strength of Ole Miss. I think they are good, but I would be very hesitant to put them in the great team category like Florida, OU, Texas, USC. I just don't think they have that kind of personnel. And considering how Nutt recruited this year, won't have that kind of personnel in the near future either. Personally, I think their lopsided win in the Cotton Bowl only inflated this line and helped us. But Texas Tech has never had a history against decent teams in their bowl games. And they didn't exactly end the season well in their last two games. So imo the Ole Miss win may not have been quite as great as people think. As for last years game, Memphis scored 24 on Ole Miss in that game. And any team who averages over 400 yards on offense is a dangerous team to be given 3 scores to on their home turf in the first game of the season. Although having just 12 starters back, Memphis is still a pretty veteran team this year. Out of the 22 starters, 17 will be upperclassmen. Last year they lost only one game by more than this spread. And that was against conference champs East Carolina on the road. At home they are a very competetive team. The bulk of memphis defense is back this year. I expect an improvement there. So I don't see Ole Miss putting up 41 points on them like they did last season. I'm curious to see how the public plays this game from that 17 number. I know I've seen many more Ole Miss backers on these football boards than i have memphis backers. This could be a very good anti-public play opportunity.
Memphis at home vs Ole Miss is a pretty interesting matchup. Miss is not the sleeper of last year (9-3 ATS) and GS is correct that the lines will be much tighter this year. I started building points for a Memphis cover and the O / D line situations scare the hell out of me. 1 Off lineman returns and the D line will have 3 new starters. They have a talented back in Curtis Steele but are there going to be any holes to run through? Secondly, Memphis ret 3 starting Cb's but Griffin and Lamar combined for 1 pick LY. FS Starr is a ret. starter but missed spring practice with a knee injury. His status for fall is uncertain. Snead should have plenty of time to find his open recievers. No look ahead for Miss with a bye week ahead. Total focus on Memphis. 17 pts is more than I would like to lay and I will probably pass, but I would hesistate taking Memphis in this matchup.
GL with your selection. d1g1t
GL with your selection. d1g1t
What I'm curious about will be how much the public buys into the Ole Miss hype. You know when Steele and a few others pick them first in their divsion of the SEC over teams like Bama and LSU, that big things will be expected of them. I think we all know what the outcome of the Ole Miss/Memphis game is going to be. It's just the small matter of the points. When the linesmakers set this game at 17, where does it go from there? Will the preseason hype drive it up to 20? This is my big question about the game. My thought was they would have made it the standard 14 point spread since these two teams play on a yearly basis and know each other well and are all but rivals at this point. But when you get into 3 score territory things start getting a little cloudier. We're still talking about a pretty steady Memphis program who has made it to a bowl game for 4 out of it's last 5 years. So they must be doing something right. They never seem to go easy when these two teams meet. I looked at the results of the last 10 years between these teams, and Ole Miss has never beat Memphis by more than 4 points when the game is played in Memphis.
I think in general, Ole Miss is a little overhyped coming into the season. However, in this particular game, it will be hard for me to back Memphis. This is mostly because the Memphis OL is much weaker than last year and i think will struggle mightily against one of the best front sevens in the SEC. It's hard to imagine Ole Miss not being in Memphis's backfield all day long wreaking havoc and creating turnovers to inflate the scoring margin.
I wonder how much Ole Miss is going to miss their monster run stopping D-Lineman Peria Jerry? They also lose their DL coach. I also think there are some question marks with the Ole Miss OL. When your talking about a spread in the 3 score territory, your probably talking about scoring in the higher 30's or 40's to cover the number on another teams turf. Will there be better games to bet in week one? Yes. But this is the main question I have about this game. You've got to score to cover. Sometimes a part of the game that is overlooked in capping these games. You never can assume that the favorite is going to stop the dog the whole game and keep the score respectable. Plus, if you take a weak ULM team out (59-0), Ole Miss really didn't average that much scoring on offense last season. A little over 29 points a game average. Will they be even better on offense this year? That's the big question.
