SPORTS ADVISORS
SUNDAY, APRIL 4
NBA
Cleveland (60-16, 36-39-1 ATS) at Boston (47-28, 30-43-2 ATS)
The Cavaliers look to clinch the NBA’s best regular-season record and home-court advantage throughout the playoffs when they visit TD Garden for a showdown with the slumping Celtics. LeBron James tallied 27 points, including 14 in a row in a fourth-quarter surge that led Cleveland to a 93-88 victory over Atlanta on Friday. It was a milestone victory for the Cavaliers, who became just the ninth team in league history to record consecutive 60-win seasons. They’ve now won three in a row overall, 11 of 12 and 17 of their last 19, and need one more win or one Lakers loss to sew up home-court advantage. The only negative for Cleveland, which suffered a backdoor beat as a 5½-point chalk against the Hawks on Friday, is it has failed to cover in four straight games and is just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 (all as a favorite). The Cavaliers have won seven of their last nine on the highway (5-4 ATS), and for the season they’re 26-12 as a visitor (21-16-1 ATS). The Celtics have now suffered three straight losses and four consecutive ATS setbacks during a six-game homestand that ends tonight. The most recent debacle came Friday, when Boston fell 119-114 to the Rockets as a hefty 11-point favorite. The three-game home losing skid comes after a five-game home winning streak and it drops the Celtics to 23-15 SU and a woeful 11-26-1 ATS at TD Garden this year. These teams opened the season against each other in Cleveland on Oct. 27, and Boston scored a 95-89 upset victory as a five-point road underdog. However, the Cavaliers have since twice exacted revenge in dominating fashion, rolling 108-88 in Boston as a 2½-point chalk on Feb. 25 and 104-93 as a seven-point home favorite on March 14. Although the road team has won two of the three meetings this season, the host is still on a 10-2 SU roll in this rivalry. Also, Cleveland is now 20-7-2 ATS in the last 29 series clashes, going 7-2 ATS in its last nine trips to Beantown. In addition to failing to cash in four straight games, the Cavaliers are in pointspread ruts of 1-4 against the Eastern Conference, 1-4 when playing after a day off, 2-5 after a SU win and 1-5 against winning teams. On the positive end, they’re 12-5 ATS in their last 17 Sunday outings and 5-1 ATS in their last six against Atlantic Division foes.
Boston is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine Eastern Conference contests and 3-1-1 ATS in its last five against the Central Division. From there, though, the pointspread trends head south, including 0-4 overall, 19-42-1 at home, 5-11-1 after a SU defeat, 6-14-2 after a non-cover, 0-5-1 on Sunday and 3-12-1 when playing at home against an opponent with a winning road record. Cleveland has topped the total in eight of nine against Atlantic Division squads, but otherwise it is on “under” runs of 6-2 overall, 4-1 against the Eastern Conference, 4-1 after a day off and 37-12-2 on Sunday. The Celtics have stayed low in 13 of 19 on Sunday, but they’re also on “over” streaks of 5-1 against the Central Division, 29-11 after a SU loss and 5-1 after a non-cover. Finally, these teams have topped the total in four of their last five meetings overall (including all three this season) and four of their last five battles in Boston.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND and OVER
San Antonio (46-29, 40-34-1 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (55-21, 32-41-3 ATS)
The Lakers try to put the finishing touches on another Pacific Division title and move a step closer to locking up the best record in the Western Conference when they welcome the Spurs to the Staples Center. Manu Ginobili went off for a season-high 43 points and helped the Spurs shoot a blistering 51.8 percent from the field as San Antonio blasted the Magic 112-100 on Friday, cashing as a three-point home favorite. Despite the presence of Orlando big man Dwight Howard, the Spurs dominated the key, outscoring the Magic 62-38 in the paint, with center Tim Duncan contributing 23 points on 10-for-12 shooting. Since suffering a nine-point home loss to the Lakers on March 24, San Antonio has won and covered four of its last five, the only blemish being a stunning six-point loss at New Jersey. Los Angeles put the brakes on a two-game SU and ATS slide with a 106-92 rout of Utah as a 4½-point favorite Friday. Hours after signing a three-year contract extension, Kobe Bryant went out and struggled with his shooting, missing on 18 of 23 field-goal attempts, but he still finished with 25 points. Lamar Odom was the difference, though, notching a game-high 26 points and pulling down 10 rebounds. Pau Gasol (14 points, 16 rebounds) also registered a double-double for the Lakers, who are 9-3 in their last 12 (5-7 ATS) and now need just one more win or Phoenix loss to wrap up the division crown. The Spurs blew out the Lakers 105-85 as a 3½-point home favorite in the season’s first meeting on Jan. 12, but Los Angeles has dominated in the last two clashes, preceding the nine-point rout at San Antonio 10 days ago with a 101-89 home victory as a 2½-point chalk on Feb. 8, winning that one with Bryant on the sidelines injured. The Lakers are 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS in the last eight series meetings, including four straight wins and covers in Hollywood. San Antonio has won six of its last 10 on the highway (7-3 ATS), but is still just a .500 road team at 18-18 (17-19 ATS). Meanwhile, the Lakers have won seven straight home games, going just 2-4-1 ATS. For the season, they’re 33-5 at Staples Center, but 16-20-1 ATS. The Spurs have failed to cover in six of their last seven Sunday contests, but otherwise they’re on ATS upticks of 4-1 overall, 7-3 on the highway, 4-0 against winning teams, 9-4 after either a SU win or ATS win, 8-1 against the Western Conference and 9-1 when scoring 100 points in their previous game. The Lakers are just 7-14-1 ATS since the All-Star break, and during this span they haven’t once cashed in consecutive games, going 0-7 ATS in their last seven after a spread-cover. They’re also in ATS slumps of 2-6-1 at home, 1-5 after a day off and 1-4 after a SU win, but they’re 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 Sunday contests. San Antonio is on “under” runs of 6-2-1 on the road, 9-2 against winning teams, 10-4-1 on Sunday and 12-5 after a spread-cover. Likewise, L.A. is on a slew of “under” streaks, including 17-8 overall, 8-2 at home, 12-5 against the Western Conference, 7-3 versus Southwest Division foes, 20-7-1 after a double-digit win and 21-4-2 on Sunday.
Additionally, the under has cashed in 20 of the last 28 meetings between these teams – including all three this year – and five straight clashes at Staples Center have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees at Boston
The Yankees begin defense of their 26th world championship when they christen the 2010 season against the rival Red Sox at Fenway Park. This season opener will feature a battle of aces, as C.C. Sabathia (18-8, 3.37 ERA in 2009) toes the slab for New York against Josh Beckett (17-6, 3.86). One year after missing the playoffs for the first time since 1993, New York posted baseball’s best regular-season record at 103-59, finishing eight games clear of Boston in the A.L. East. Then the Yankees rolled to their record 26th World Series title, sweeping the Twins in the first round, knocking off the Angels in six games in the American League Championship Series and polishing off the Phillies in six games in the Fall Classic. Boston went 95-67 last year – tying the Dodgers for the third-best record in the league – and that was good enough to nab the A.L. wild-card berth last year. However, the Red Sox were swept by the Angels in the ALDS. Boston dominated as usual at Fenway Park, going 56-25 in the regular season. Only the Yankees (57-24) had a better home record. New York enters the season on positive runs of 52-21 overall, 48-18 against right-handed starters, 40-15 versus A.L. East rivals and 47-21 on Sunday, but it is 1-4 in its last five as an underdog. Meanwhile, the Sox are on positive stretches of 55-24 at home, 37-17 as a favorite and 6-2 on Sunday, but they dropped nine of 13 overall to end last year, five of seven against lefty starters and six straight against A.L. East foes. The Red Sox beat the Yankees eight straight times to start last year, but New York came back to win nine of the last 10 meetings to get a split of the season series. The home team won 14 of the 18 clashes, and New York is still just 2-8 in its last 10 games at Fenway. Sabathia was sensational in his debut season in New York, particularly after Aug. 1, when he went 12-2 with a 2.09 ERA in 17 starts (playoffs included), allowing three earned runs or fewer in 15 of his last 16 outings. The Yankees went 15-2 in those final 17 Sabathia starts, including 8-1 on the road. The only road loss came in a meaningless October contest at Tampa Bay, and if you take away that outing, Sabathia – who finished fourth in A.L. Cy Young voting – went 11-1 with a 1.51 ERA in his final 15 outings. Sabathia was 12-6 with a 3.53 ERA in 19 regular-season road starts last year (compared with 7-2 with a 3.17 ERA at Yankee Stadium). He faced the Red Sox four times, going 3-1 with a 2.22 ERA (1-1 with a 4.61 ERA at Fenway). For his career, the hefty lefty is 5-5 with a 3.29 ERA in 11 starts against Boston, going 2-2 with a 3.19 ERA in five outings at Fenway. Beckett’s final 2009 start wasn’t pretty, as he gave up four runs (all earned) on five hits in 6 2/3 innings of a 4-1 playoff loss at the Angels. Still, the veteran right-hander had a strong season, allowing three earned runs or fewer in 22 of his 32 starts, and he led his team in wins and innings pitched (212 1/3). With Beckett on the hill, Boston is on runs of 19-9 overall, 13-3 at home (all as a favorite), 12-4 against the A.L. East, but it has lost six of his last eight Sunday starts. Beckett was outstanding at home in 2009, going 10-1 with a 3.59 ERA in 16 starts, with Boston winning 13 of those 16 games, including two of three against New York. Beckett is 9-5 with a 5.33 ERA in 17 career regular-season starts against the Yankees, including 2-1 with a 5.34 ERA in five outings last season. New York ended last season on “over” runs of 4-0 overall, 5-0-1 on the road, 3-0-1 as an underdog (all on the road), 14-2 when Sabathia pitches on the road and 6-0 when Sabathia pitches on Sunday. Also, the Red Sox carry “over” trends of 6-2 at home, 32-13 as a favorite, 16-5 in series openers, 6-2 versus the A.L. East, 8-3 when Beckett pitches overall and 6-1 when Beckett pitches at Fenway. Finally, four of the final five Red Sox-Yankees meetings last year topped the total, and the over went 3-1-1 in the last five battles in Boston.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
SUNDAY, APRIL 4
NBA
Cleveland (60-16, 36-39-1 ATS) at Boston (47-28, 30-43-2 ATS)
The Cavaliers look to clinch the NBA’s best regular-season record and home-court advantage throughout the playoffs when they visit TD Garden for a showdown with the slumping Celtics. LeBron James tallied 27 points, including 14 in a row in a fourth-quarter surge that led Cleveland to a 93-88 victory over Atlanta on Friday. It was a milestone victory for the Cavaliers, who became just the ninth team in league history to record consecutive 60-win seasons. They’ve now won three in a row overall, 11 of 12 and 17 of their last 19, and need one more win or one Lakers loss to sew up home-court advantage. The only negative for Cleveland, which suffered a backdoor beat as a 5½-point chalk against the Hawks on Friday, is it has failed to cover in four straight games and is just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 (all as a favorite). The Cavaliers have won seven of their last nine on the highway (5-4 ATS), and for the season they’re 26-12 as a visitor (21-16-1 ATS). The Celtics have now suffered three straight losses and four consecutive ATS setbacks during a six-game homestand that ends tonight. The most recent debacle came Friday, when Boston fell 119-114 to the Rockets as a hefty 11-point favorite. The three-game home losing skid comes after a five-game home winning streak and it drops the Celtics to 23-15 SU and a woeful 11-26-1 ATS at TD Garden this year. These teams opened the season against each other in Cleveland on Oct. 27, and Boston scored a 95-89 upset victory as a five-point road underdog. However, the Cavaliers have since twice exacted revenge in dominating fashion, rolling 108-88 in Boston as a 2½-point chalk on Feb. 25 and 104-93 as a seven-point home favorite on March 14. Although the road team has won two of the three meetings this season, the host is still on a 10-2 SU roll in this rivalry. Also, Cleveland is now 20-7-2 ATS in the last 29 series clashes, going 7-2 ATS in its last nine trips to Beantown. In addition to failing to cash in four straight games, the Cavaliers are in pointspread ruts of 1-4 against the Eastern Conference, 1-4 when playing after a day off, 2-5 after a SU win and 1-5 against winning teams. On the positive end, they’re 12-5 ATS in their last 17 Sunday outings and 5-1 ATS in their last six against Atlantic Division foes.
Boston is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine Eastern Conference contests and 3-1-1 ATS in its last five against the Central Division. From there, though, the pointspread trends head south, including 0-4 overall, 19-42-1 at home, 5-11-1 after a SU defeat, 6-14-2 after a non-cover, 0-5-1 on Sunday and 3-12-1 when playing at home against an opponent with a winning road record. Cleveland has topped the total in eight of nine against Atlantic Division squads, but otherwise it is on “under” runs of 6-2 overall, 4-1 against the Eastern Conference, 4-1 after a day off and 37-12-2 on Sunday. The Celtics have stayed low in 13 of 19 on Sunday, but they’re also on “over” streaks of 5-1 against the Central Division, 29-11 after a SU loss and 5-1 after a non-cover. Finally, these teams have topped the total in four of their last five meetings overall (including all three this season) and four of their last five battles in Boston.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND and OVER
San Antonio (46-29, 40-34-1 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (55-21, 32-41-3 ATS)
The Lakers try to put the finishing touches on another Pacific Division title and move a step closer to locking up the best record in the Western Conference when they welcome the Spurs to the Staples Center. Manu Ginobili went off for a season-high 43 points and helped the Spurs shoot a blistering 51.8 percent from the field as San Antonio blasted the Magic 112-100 on Friday, cashing as a three-point home favorite. Despite the presence of Orlando big man Dwight Howard, the Spurs dominated the key, outscoring the Magic 62-38 in the paint, with center Tim Duncan contributing 23 points on 10-for-12 shooting. Since suffering a nine-point home loss to the Lakers on March 24, San Antonio has won and covered four of its last five, the only blemish being a stunning six-point loss at New Jersey. Los Angeles put the brakes on a two-game SU and ATS slide with a 106-92 rout of Utah as a 4½-point favorite Friday. Hours after signing a three-year contract extension, Kobe Bryant went out and struggled with his shooting, missing on 18 of 23 field-goal attempts, but he still finished with 25 points. Lamar Odom was the difference, though, notching a game-high 26 points and pulling down 10 rebounds. Pau Gasol (14 points, 16 rebounds) also registered a double-double for the Lakers, who are 9-3 in their last 12 (5-7 ATS) and now need just one more win or Phoenix loss to wrap up the division crown. The Spurs blew out the Lakers 105-85 as a 3½-point home favorite in the season’s first meeting on Jan. 12, but Los Angeles has dominated in the last two clashes, preceding the nine-point rout at San Antonio 10 days ago with a 101-89 home victory as a 2½-point chalk on Feb. 8, winning that one with Bryant on the sidelines injured. The Lakers are 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS in the last eight series meetings, including four straight wins and covers in Hollywood. San Antonio has won six of its last 10 on the highway (7-3 ATS), but is still just a .500 road team at 18-18 (17-19 ATS). Meanwhile, the Lakers have won seven straight home games, going just 2-4-1 ATS. For the season, they’re 33-5 at Staples Center, but 16-20-1 ATS. The Spurs have failed to cover in six of their last seven Sunday contests, but otherwise they’re on ATS upticks of 4-1 overall, 7-3 on the highway, 4-0 against winning teams, 9-4 after either a SU win or ATS win, 8-1 against the Western Conference and 9-1 when scoring 100 points in their previous game. The Lakers are just 7-14-1 ATS since the All-Star break, and during this span they haven’t once cashed in consecutive games, going 0-7 ATS in their last seven after a spread-cover. They’re also in ATS slumps of 2-6-1 at home, 1-5 after a day off and 1-4 after a SU win, but they’re 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 Sunday contests. San Antonio is on “under” runs of 6-2-1 on the road, 9-2 against winning teams, 10-4-1 on Sunday and 12-5 after a spread-cover. Likewise, L.A. is on a slew of “under” streaks, including 17-8 overall, 8-2 at home, 12-5 against the Western Conference, 7-3 versus Southwest Division foes, 20-7-1 after a double-digit win and 21-4-2 on Sunday.
Additionally, the under has cashed in 20 of the last 28 meetings between these teams – including all three this year – and five straight clashes at Staples Center have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees at Boston
The Yankees begin defense of their 26th world championship when they christen the 2010 season against the rival Red Sox at Fenway Park. This season opener will feature a battle of aces, as C.C. Sabathia (18-8, 3.37 ERA in 2009) toes the slab for New York against Josh Beckett (17-6, 3.86). One year after missing the playoffs for the first time since 1993, New York posted baseball’s best regular-season record at 103-59, finishing eight games clear of Boston in the A.L. East. Then the Yankees rolled to their record 26th World Series title, sweeping the Twins in the first round, knocking off the Angels in six games in the American League Championship Series and polishing off the Phillies in six games in the Fall Classic. Boston went 95-67 last year – tying the Dodgers for the third-best record in the league – and that was good enough to nab the A.L. wild-card berth last year. However, the Red Sox were swept by the Angels in the ALDS. Boston dominated as usual at Fenway Park, going 56-25 in the regular season. Only the Yankees (57-24) had a better home record. New York enters the season on positive runs of 52-21 overall, 48-18 against right-handed starters, 40-15 versus A.L. East rivals and 47-21 on Sunday, but it is 1-4 in its last five as an underdog. Meanwhile, the Sox are on positive stretches of 55-24 at home, 37-17 as a favorite and 6-2 on Sunday, but they dropped nine of 13 overall to end last year, five of seven against lefty starters and six straight against A.L. East foes. The Red Sox beat the Yankees eight straight times to start last year, but New York came back to win nine of the last 10 meetings to get a split of the season series. The home team won 14 of the 18 clashes, and New York is still just 2-8 in its last 10 games at Fenway. Sabathia was sensational in his debut season in New York, particularly after Aug. 1, when he went 12-2 with a 2.09 ERA in 17 starts (playoffs included), allowing three earned runs or fewer in 15 of his last 16 outings. The Yankees went 15-2 in those final 17 Sabathia starts, including 8-1 on the road. The only road loss came in a meaningless October contest at Tampa Bay, and if you take away that outing, Sabathia – who finished fourth in A.L. Cy Young voting – went 11-1 with a 1.51 ERA in his final 15 outings. Sabathia was 12-6 with a 3.53 ERA in 19 regular-season road starts last year (compared with 7-2 with a 3.17 ERA at Yankee Stadium). He faced the Red Sox four times, going 3-1 with a 2.22 ERA (1-1 with a 4.61 ERA at Fenway). For his career, the hefty lefty is 5-5 with a 3.29 ERA in 11 starts against Boston, going 2-2 with a 3.19 ERA in five outings at Fenway. Beckett’s final 2009 start wasn’t pretty, as he gave up four runs (all earned) on five hits in 6 2/3 innings of a 4-1 playoff loss at the Angels. Still, the veteran right-hander had a strong season, allowing three earned runs or fewer in 22 of his 32 starts, and he led his team in wins and innings pitched (212 1/3). With Beckett on the hill, Boston is on runs of 19-9 overall, 13-3 at home (all as a favorite), 12-4 against the A.L. East, but it has lost six of his last eight Sunday starts. Beckett was outstanding at home in 2009, going 10-1 with a 3.59 ERA in 16 starts, with Boston winning 13 of those 16 games, including two of three against New York. Beckett is 9-5 with a 5.33 ERA in 17 career regular-season starts against the Yankees, including 2-1 with a 5.34 ERA in five outings last season. New York ended last season on “over” runs of 4-0 overall, 5-0-1 on the road, 3-0-1 as an underdog (all on the road), 14-2 when Sabathia pitches on the road and 6-0 when Sabathia pitches on Sunday. Also, the Red Sox carry “over” trends of 6-2 at home, 32-13 as a favorite, 16-5 in series openers, 6-2 versus the A.L. East, 8-3 when Beckett pitches overall and 6-1 when Beckett pitches at Fenway. Finally, four of the final five Red Sox-Yankees meetings last year topped the total, and the over went 3-1-1 in the last five battles in Boston.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
