Have to admit I stole this from a different thread, but it's great info nonetheless.
Scroll down further and the homedog stat is SHOCKING!!
*******************************************************
<TABLE id=Table33 cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=mbt vAlign=top bgColor=#ffffff>CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP HISTORY
by Bruce Marshall, Associate Editor & Historian
Let's rewind a couple of weeks, back to the Oklahoma-Southern Cal BCS title game at the Orange Bowl. Another championship-level football game. Another gridiron title tilt that the majority of experts predicted would be a classic, close-fought encounter. And yet another championship game with a decidedly one-sided result, with the pointspread winner in doubt for only a short time.
We bring up Oklahoma-Southern Cal because it is just the latest example of how championship-level football games, in both the colleges and pros, so often end up as such unexpected, lopsided affairs. And, if anything, pro football has contributed even more one-sided final scores in its title-level games, which include this weekend's AFC & NFC championship clashes.
The link between practically all of those past title results, in both college and pro football, is that so few of them projected as romps beforehand. For lack of a better term, let's call it the "Title Game Shock and Sadness Syndrome." One of the two excellent teams becomes shocked by a series of negative events in the game. Unaccustomed to facing such a substantial deficit, the trailing team becomes saddened and dazed by the prospects of seeing its championship hopes fade, and its play gets worse and worse as that profound sadness sets in. Combined with the fact that teams in the lead in championship games will often go for the throat, minimizing any chance that their lead can be jeopardized by a belated rally, those desperate comeback attempts by the trailing side often make the situation worse, and leads grow exponentially.
Recent history, especially in AFC & NFC championship games, would indicate that a down-to-the-wire thriller probably isn't in the cards this weekend. Since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger, 47 of the 68 conference title games have been decided by double-digit margins. Almost half of those (33 of 68) have been decided by 14 or more; 27 by 17 or more. In each of the past two years, all four of the conference championships have been decided by double-digit margins.
The trick, at least in recent years, has been to identify the team that's likely to dominate. For a long while, this was a home-team round, especially during the '80s, when hosts (usually favored) bossed the action, covering 16 of 20 conference title tilts. Since 1990, however, the road teams have more than held their own, covering 16 of 28, and 10 of the last 14. In the ten conference title games since 1999, road teams have won five of them straight up--with four of those by double-digit margins. And five of the last 7 double-digit wins in AFC & NFC title action have been recorded by the underdog.
But that one-sided trend in title games goes back a lot further than the 1970 merger. The same thing was happening in similar NFL & AFL title games for most of the '60s. Six of the last seven old AFL championship games were decided by double-digit margins. Some of those whuppins' were of the heavy variety, featuring final scorelines like Chargers 51, Patriots 10 in 1963 (Keith Lincoln ran wild!); Bills 23, Chargers 0 in 1965 (Butch Byrd's punt return TD and Lou Saban's defense!); Chiefs 31, Bills 7 in 1966 (Mike Garrett, Otis Taylor, and Fred "Da Hamma'" Williamson!); Raiders 40, Oilers 7 in '67 (Hewritt Dixon & Pete Banaszak both over 100 YR!). Four of the last six NFL title games in the '60s were decided by double digits. Oldtimers might remember the Browns whipping the Colts 27-0 in '64 (Frank Ryan to Gary Collins!), then Don Shula getting his revenge at Cleveland Stadium four years later in a 34-0 Baltimore romp, and the "Purple People Eaters" from Minnesota devouring the poor Browns again in 1969, 27-7. Earlier in the decade, Green Bay laid a 37-0 pounding on the Giants in 1961. And if you thought those beatings were bad, check out the pre-1960 results (more on that in our Super Bowl issue two weeks hence).
Perhaps we'll see some close, exciting conference championship games this weekend. Just don't be surprised if one or both of the games gets out of hand.
Aside from the one-sided scorelines, are there any other conference title game pointspread trends or patterns worth review? Underdogs have provided good value in recent years (6-2 since 2000), though, since the 1970 merger, favorites overall still hold a 37-28-2 advantage. The "intermediate/high" favorites (those laying between 7-9½ points) are 14-3 vs. the number in conference championships since 1970. Home teams have won straight up almost two-thirds of the time since the merger (45 of 68); home chalk still a noteworthy 31-21-2 since '70.
"Totals" have gone back and forth, with the Colts-Patriots and Panthers-Eagles contests going "under" last year after all four conference title games went "over" in the 2001 & '02 campaigns. Since 1986, "overs" and "unders" are level at 18 apiece in conference championships.
Following is a list of pointspread breakdowns and results of AFC & NFC Championships since 1970.
CATEGORY RESULT
Favorites/Underdogs (one pick ‘em) 37-28-2
Favorites straight up 44-23
Favored by 1-3 points 10-7
Favored by 3½-6½ points 9-11-2
Favored by 7-9½ points 14-3
Favored by 10 or more 4-7
Home teams straight up 45-23
Home teams vs. spread 38-28-2
Home favorites vs. spread 31-21-2
CATEGORY RESULT
Home underdogs vs. spread 7-6
Home pick’em vs. spread 0-1
Overs/unders (since 1986) 18-18
MARGIN OF VICTORY
1-3 points 8
4-6 points 8
7-10 points 9
11-13 points 10
14 or more 33
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP RESULTS
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
2003 Carolina (+4) 14 - PHILADELPHIA 3
2002 Tampa Bay (+4) 27 - PHILADELPHIA 10
2001 ST. LOUIS (-10½) 29 - Philadelphia 24
2000 N.Y. GIANTS (+2½) 41 - Minnesota 0
1999 ST. LOUIS (-14) 11 - Tampa Bay 6
1998 Atlanta (+11) 30 - MINNESOTA 27 (OT)
1997 Green Bay (-2½) 23 - SAN FRANCISCO 10
1996 GREEN BAY (-12½) 30 - Carolina 13
1995 DALLAS (-8½) 38 - Green Bay 27
1994 SAN FRANCISCO (-7½) 38 - Dallas 28
1993 DALLAS (-3½) 38 - San Francisco 21
1992 Dallas (+4) 30 - SAN FRANCISCO 20
1991 WASHINGTON (-13½) 41 - Detroit 10
1990 N.Y. Giants (+8) 15 - SAN FRANCISCO 13
1989 SAN FRANCISCO (-7) 30 - L.A. Rams 3
1988 San Francisco (pick) 28 - CHICAGO 3
1987 WASHINGTON (-3½) 17 - Minnesota 10
1986 N.Y. GIANTS (-7½) 17 - Washington 0
1985 CHICAGO (-10½) 24 - L.A. Rams 0
1984 SAN FRANCISCO (-9) 23 - Chicago 0
1983 WASHINGTON (-10½) 24 - San Francisco 21
1982 WASHINGTON (+2) 31 - Dallas 17
1981 SAN FRANCISCO (+3) 28 - Dallas 27
1980 PHILADELPHIA (+1) 20 - Dallas 7
1979 Los Angeles (-3½) 9 - TAMPA BAY 0
1978 Dallas (-3½) 28 - LOS ANGELES 0
1977 DALLAS (-11½) 23 - Minnesota 6
1976 MINNESOTA (-4½) 24 - Los Angeles 13
1975 Dallas (+6) 37 - LOS ANGELES 7
1974 MINNESOTA (-4) 14 - Los Angeles 10
1973 Minnesota (+1) 27 - DALLAS 10
1972 WASHINGTON (-3) 26 - Dallas 3
1971 DALLAS (-7½) 14 - San Francisco 3
1970 Dallas (+4) 17 - SAN FRANCISCO 10
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=text vAlign=top bgColor=#d5dbec>ats247
Add to My Favorites
No. Points: 681
Date Joined: 2/25/2004
</TD><TD class=mbt vAlign=top bgColor=#d5dbec>
Posted: 1/19/2005 9:09:40 AM
<HR color=#cd5713 SIZE=1>cont.......
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP RESULTS
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
2003 NEW ENGLAND (-3) 24 - Indianapolis 14
2002 OAKLAND (-8) 41 - Tennessee 24
2001 New England (+10) 24 - PITTSBURGH 17
2000 Baltimore (+6) 16 - OAKLAND 3
1999 Tennessee (+7) 33 - JACKSONVILLE 14
1998 DENVER (-9) 23 - N.Y. Jets 10
1997 Denver (-2½) 24 - PITTSBURGH 21
1996 NEW ENGLAND (-7) 20 - Jacksonville 6
1995 PITTSBURGH (-11½) 20 - Indianapolis 16
1994 San Diego (+9) 17 - PITTSBURGH 13
1993 BUFFALO (-3) 30 - Kansas City 13
1992 Buffalo (-2½) 29 - MIAMI 10
1991 BUFFALO (-11½) 10 - Denver 7
1990 BUFFALO (-7) 51 - L.A. Raiders 3
1989 DENVER (-3½) 37 - Cleveland 21
1988 CINCINNATI (-4½) 21 - Buffalo 10
1987 DENVER (-3) 38 - Cleveland 33
1986 Denver (+3) 23 - CLEVELAND 20 (OT)
1985 New England (+5½) 31 - MIAMI 14
1984 MIAMI (-9½) 45 - Pittsburgh 28
1983 L.A. RAIDERS (-7½) 30 - Seattle 14
1982 MIAMI (-2) 14 - N.Y. Jets 0
1981 CINCINNATI (-4½) 27 - San Diego 7
1980 Oakland (+4) 34 - SAN DIEGO 27
1979 PITTSBURGH (-9½) 27 - Houston 13
1978 PITTSBURGH (-7) 34 - Houston 5
1977 DENVER (+3½) 20 - Oakland 17
1976 OAKLAND (+4½) 24 - Pittsburgh 7
1975 PITTSBURGH (-6) 16 - Oakland 10
1974 Pittsburgh (+5½) 24 - OAKLAND 13
1973 MIAMI (-6½) 27 - Oakland 10
1972 Miami (-2½) 21 - PITTSBURGH 17
1971 MIAMI (-1½) 21 - Baltimore 0
1970 BALTIMORE (+1) 27 - Oakland 17
***************************************************
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Scroll down further and the homedog stat is SHOCKING!!
*******************************************************
<TABLE id=Table33 cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=mbt vAlign=top bgColor=#ffffff>CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP HISTORY
by Bruce Marshall, Associate Editor & Historian
Let's rewind a couple of weeks, back to the Oklahoma-Southern Cal BCS title game at the Orange Bowl. Another championship-level football game. Another gridiron title tilt that the majority of experts predicted would be a classic, close-fought encounter. And yet another championship game with a decidedly one-sided result, with the pointspread winner in doubt for only a short time.
We bring up Oklahoma-Southern Cal because it is just the latest example of how championship-level football games, in both the colleges and pros, so often end up as such unexpected, lopsided affairs. And, if anything, pro football has contributed even more one-sided final scores in its title-level games, which include this weekend's AFC & NFC championship clashes.
The link between practically all of those past title results, in both college and pro football, is that so few of them projected as romps beforehand. For lack of a better term, let's call it the "Title Game Shock and Sadness Syndrome." One of the two excellent teams becomes shocked by a series of negative events in the game. Unaccustomed to facing such a substantial deficit, the trailing team becomes saddened and dazed by the prospects of seeing its championship hopes fade, and its play gets worse and worse as that profound sadness sets in. Combined with the fact that teams in the lead in championship games will often go for the throat, minimizing any chance that their lead can be jeopardized by a belated rally, those desperate comeback attempts by the trailing side often make the situation worse, and leads grow exponentially.
Recent history, especially in AFC & NFC championship games, would indicate that a down-to-the-wire thriller probably isn't in the cards this weekend. Since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger, 47 of the 68 conference title games have been decided by double-digit margins. Almost half of those (33 of 68) have been decided by 14 or more; 27 by 17 or more. In each of the past two years, all four of the conference championships have been decided by double-digit margins.
The trick, at least in recent years, has been to identify the team that's likely to dominate. For a long while, this was a home-team round, especially during the '80s, when hosts (usually favored) bossed the action, covering 16 of 20 conference title tilts. Since 1990, however, the road teams have more than held their own, covering 16 of 28, and 10 of the last 14. In the ten conference title games since 1999, road teams have won five of them straight up--with four of those by double-digit margins. And five of the last 7 double-digit wins in AFC & NFC title action have been recorded by the underdog.
But that one-sided trend in title games goes back a lot further than the 1970 merger. The same thing was happening in similar NFL & AFL title games for most of the '60s. Six of the last seven old AFL championship games were decided by double-digit margins. Some of those whuppins' were of the heavy variety, featuring final scorelines like Chargers 51, Patriots 10 in 1963 (Keith Lincoln ran wild!); Bills 23, Chargers 0 in 1965 (Butch Byrd's punt return TD and Lou Saban's defense!); Chiefs 31, Bills 7 in 1966 (Mike Garrett, Otis Taylor, and Fred "Da Hamma'" Williamson!); Raiders 40, Oilers 7 in '67 (Hewritt Dixon & Pete Banaszak both over 100 YR!). Four of the last six NFL title games in the '60s were decided by double digits. Oldtimers might remember the Browns whipping the Colts 27-0 in '64 (Frank Ryan to Gary Collins!), then Don Shula getting his revenge at Cleveland Stadium four years later in a 34-0 Baltimore romp, and the "Purple People Eaters" from Minnesota devouring the poor Browns again in 1969, 27-7. Earlier in the decade, Green Bay laid a 37-0 pounding on the Giants in 1961. And if you thought those beatings were bad, check out the pre-1960 results (more on that in our Super Bowl issue two weeks hence).
Perhaps we'll see some close, exciting conference championship games this weekend. Just don't be surprised if one or both of the games gets out of hand.
Aside from the one-sided scorelines, are there any other conference title game pointspread trends or patterns worth review? Underdogs have provided good value in recent years (6-2 since 2000), though, since the 1970 merger, favorites overall still hold a 37-28-2 advantage. The "intermediate/high" favorites (those laying between 7-9½ points) are 14-3 vs. the number in conference championships since 1970. Home teams have won straight up almost two-thirds of the time since the merger (45 of 68); home chalk still a noteworthy 31-21-2 since '70.
"Totals" have gone back and forth, with the Colts-Patriots and Panthers-Eagles contests going "under" last year after all four conference title games went "over" in the 2001 & '02 campaigns. Since 1986, "overs" and "unders" are level at 18 apiece in conference championships.
Following is a list of pointspread breakdowns and results of AFC & NFC Championships since 1970.
CATEGORY RESULT
Favorites/Underdogs (one pick ‘em) 37-28-2
Favorites straight up 44-23
Favored by 1-3 points 10-7
Favored by 3½-6½ points 9-11-2
Favored by 7-9½ points 14-3
Favored by 10 or more 4-7
Home teams straight up 45-23
Home teams vs. spread 38-28-2
Home favorites vs. spread 31-21-2
CATEGORY RESULT
Home underdogs vs. spread 7-6
Home pick’em vs. spread 0-1
Overs/unders (since 1986) 18-18
MARGIN OF VICTORY
1-3 points 8
4-6 points 8
7-10 points 9
11-13 points 10
14 or more 33
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP RESULTS
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
2003 Carolina (+4) 14 - PHILADELPHIA 3
2002 Tampa Bay (+4) 27 - PHILADELPHIA 10
2001 ST. LOUIS (-10½) 29 - Philadelphia 24
2000 N.Y. GIANTS (+2½) 41 - Minnesota 0
1999 ST. LOUIS (-14) 11 - Tampa Bay 6
1998 Atlanta (+11) 30 - MINNESOTA 27 (OT)
1997 Green Bay (-2½) 23 - SAN FRANCISCO 10
1996 GREEN BAY (-12½) 30 - Carolina 13
1995 DALLAS (-8½) 38 - Green Bay 27
1994 SAN FRANCISCO (-7½) 38 - Dallas 28
1993 DALLAS (-3½) 38 - San Francisco 21
1992 Dallas (+4) 30 - SAN FRANCISCO 20
1991 WASHINGTON (-13½) 41 - Detroit 10
1990 N.Y. Giants (+8) 15 - SAN FRANCISCO 13
1989 SAN FRANCISCO (-7) 30 - L.A. Rams 3
1988 San Francisco (pick) 28 - CHICAGO 3
1987 WASHINGTON (-3½) 17 - Minnesota 10
1986 N.Y. GIANTS (-7½) 17 - Washington 0
1985 CHICAGO (-10½) 24 - L.A. Rams 0
1984 SAN FRANCISCO (-9) 23 - Chicago 0
1983 WASHINGTON (-10½) 24 - San Francisco 21
1982 WASHINGTON (+2) 31 - Dallas 17
1981 SAN FRANCISCO (+3) 28 - Dallas 27
1980 PHILADELPHIA (+1) 20 - Dallas 7
1979 Los Angeles (-3½) 9 - TAMPA BAY 0
1978 Dallas (-3½) 28 - LOS ANGELES 0
1977 DALLAS (-11½) 23 - Minnesota 6
1976 MINNESOTA (-4½) 24 - Los Angeles 13
1975 Dallas (+6) 37 - LOS ANGELES 7
1974 MINNESOTA (-4) 14 - Los Angeles 10
1973 Minnesota (+1) 27 - DALLAS 10
1972 WASHINGTON (-3) 26 - Dallas 3
1971 DALLAS (-7½) 14 - San Francisco 3
1970 Dallas (+4) 17 - SAN FRANCISCO 10
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=text vAlign=top bgColor=#d5dbec>ats247
Add to My Favorites
No. Points: 681
Date Joined: 2/25/2004
<HR color=#cd5713 SIZE=1>cont.......
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP RESULTS
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
2003 NEW ENGLAND (-3) 24 - Indianapolis 14
2002 OAKLAND (-8) 41 - Tennessee 24
2001 New England (+10) 24 - PITTSBURGH 17
2000 Baltimore (+6) 16 - OAKLAND 3
1999 Tennessee (+7) 33 - JACKSONVILLE 14
1998 DENVER (-9) 23 - N.Y. Jets 10
1997 Denver (-2½) 24 - PITTSBURGH 21
1996 NEW ENGLAND (-7) 20 - Jacksonville 6
1995 PITTSBURGH (-11½) 20 - Indianapolis 16
1994 San Diego (+9) 17 - PITTSBURGH 13
1993 BUFFALO (-3) 30 - Kansas City 13
1992 Buffalo (-2½) 29 - MIAMI 10
1991 BUFFALO (-11½) 10 - Denver 7
1990 BUFFALO (-7) 51 - L.A. Raiders 3
1989 DENVER (-3½) 37 - Cleveland 21
1988 CINCINNATI (-4½) 21 - Buffalo 10
1987 DENVER (-3) 38 - Cleveland 33
1986 Denver (+3) 23 - CLEVELAND 20 (OT)
1985 New England (+5½) 31 - MIAMI 14
1984 MIAMI (-9½) 45 - Pittsburgh 28
1983 L.A. RAIDERS (-7½) 30 - Seattle 14
1982 MIAMI (-2) 14 - N.Y. Jets 0
1981 CINCINNATI (-4½) 27 - San Diego 7
1980 Oakland (+4) 34 - SAN DIEGO 27
1979 PITTSBURGH (-9½) 27 - Houston 13
1978 PITTSBURGH (-7) 34 - Houston 5
1977 DENVER (+3½) 20 - Oakland 17
1976 OAKLAND (+4½) 24 - Pittsburgh 7
1975 PITTSBURGH (-6) 16 - Oakland 10
1974 Pittsburgh (+5½) 24 - OAKLAND 13
1973 MIAMI (-6½) 27 - Oakland 10
1972 Miami (-2½) 21 - PITTSBURGH 17
1971 MIAMI (-1½) 21 - Baltimore 0
1970 BALTIMORE (+1) 27 - Oakland 17
***************************************************
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
