Guru's Golden Picks: Arena League Week 16

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Yeah, this caught me off guard a bit... I'm gonna sit on these lines tonight and monitor some things before pulling the trigger on anything because I'm two days behind, but I've gotta get a better performance this week than I have the last two....
 

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Playoff Clinching Picutre

I thought this may be of value this week.

Six teams look to claim playoff berths in Week 16
Courtesy: Arena Football League Release: 05/09/2005

Courtesy: J. Cribb/AFL/WireImage.com
Force WR/LB Chris Jackson

NEW YORK – The Georgia Force became the first team to clinch a postseason spot in the Drive to ArenaBowl XIX Las Vegas with their victory over the Tampa Bay Storm on Sunday and can clinch the top seed in the National Conference this weekend. The Chicago Rush, Colorado Crush, Los Angeles Avengers, New York Dragons, San Jose SaberCats and Tampa Bay Storm can join Georgia in the postseason by qualifying this weekend.

Following is each team’s postseason-clinching scenario for Week 16:

GEORGIA FORCE: Clinched the Southern Division title

Georgia can clinch the top seed in the National Conference with a victory over Dallas AND a New York loss to Tampa Bay

CHICAGO RUSH: Can clinch a postseason berth with a victory over Grand Rapids combined with one of the following:
• Las Vegas loss to Los Angeles
• San Jose loss to Arizona

COLORADO CRUSH: Can clinch the Central Division title with a victory over Nashville AND Chicago loss to Grand Rapids

Colorado can clinch a postseason berth with a victory over Nashville AND a Las Vegas loss to Los Angeles

Colorado can clinch the top seed in the American Conference with a victory over Nashville AND a Chicago loss to Grand Rapids AND a Los Angeles loss to Las Vegas AND a San Jose loss to Arizona

LOS ANGELES AVENGERS: Can clinch the Western Division title with a victory over Las Vegas

Los Angeles can clinch a postseason berth if one of the following occurs:
• San Jose loss to Arizona
• Chicago loss to Grand Rapids AND Colorado victory over Nashville

NEW YORK DRAGONS: Can clinch the Eastern Division title with a victory over Tampa Bay OR a Dallas loss to Georgia

SAN JOSE SABERCATS: Can clinch a postseason berth with a victory over Arizona AND a Las Vegas loss to Los Angeles

TAMPA BAY STORM: Can clinch a postseason berth with a victory over New York AND a New Orleans loss to Austin AND a Dallas loss to Georgia

The Arizona Rattlers, Austin Wranglers, Columbus Destroyers and Grand Rapids Rampage have been eliminated from postseason participation.[/B]
 

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COLUMBUS DESTROYERS: Could suck even more with a loss in Philadelphia this week.
 

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And for what it's worth, Orlando locks up the 3 seed next week if they beat New Orleans... But something else for note... Last year, all of the talk said that New York was locked into a playoff spot going into the last week of the season... and they were wrong.... New York lost their last week of the season, won the division, and didn't get in the playoffs.

For what it's worth, I don't think Georgia has actually wrapped up the division. If Orlando gets into a head to head tie with Georgia, Orlando will win the division if I understand correctly. However, it would take Tampa to lose one of their last two, Georgia to lose them both, and Orlando to beat New Orleans. None of this is completely out of the question, but it'll be difficult to say the least. So don't let the website fool you, because I believe they're wrong again. Unless they've changed the rules about playoff tiebreakers, which I don't believe they have, Orlando would hold over Georgia because the 2nd tiebreaker after record vs. opponent is point differential in those games, which Orlando won by a point. Georgia DOES hold the advantage on Tampa and New Orleans straight up because they swept the Voodoo and won by 2 points on differential on Tampa. If any combination of 3+ teams ends up tied for the division, Georgia will win the division on their divisional record.

The game of the week in week 16 is Vegas/LA. For what it's worth, to win the division, LA might need San Jose to win this week even though they wrap up a spot with a win or a San Jose loss. If the division ends in a 3-way tie, LA wins the division. If it comes down to LA and Vegas (which would require a Vegas win this week), Vegas would win the division because they would have swept LA. This game isn't as important to LA as you would think, as they have Grand Rapids to finish out the season. For Vegas, their playoff life is on the line... should they lose this one, they'll be 8-7 and basically done unless they get a lot of help, because they lose a lot of heads up tiebreakers in the conference. Their last game should be a win against Arizona, but the game might not mean anything. If San Jose and Chicago win this week and Vegas loses, Vegas, I believe is done.

The game most important to any individual team this weekend is New Orleans hosting Austin. The Voodoo sit in that mess known as the Southern Division, where the best 4 teams in the AFL might lie. With catching Georgia out of the question now, the Voodoo MUST win this game or they are done. Once again, the Voodoo lose all sorts of tiebreakers in the division, which makes it almost impossible for them to get in as it is. But with Tampa in a tough game with New York, the Voodoo can control their own destiny with a win going into Orlando the last week of the season. A New Orleans win + a Tampa loss will give the opposite division to New York and make the Orlando/New Orleans game basically worthless for the Preds, and an elimination game for New Orleans.

Speaking of the Preds, they CAN clinch this week despite not playing. If Tampa and Dallas both lose and New Orleans wins, the Preds are in unless they play to a tie with New Orleans. No one mentions that... Orlando holds the tiebreaker with Tampa (by point differential) and can't get caught by Dallas at that point.

Only other real things of note are mentioned in the article... Georgia's the 1 seed if they win and New York loses...

And I'll say this too... the 2 best teams in the playoffs in that conference are going to be seeds 3 and 4. Georgia's going down early and hard, especially if they play Orlando, a team that beat them in Orlando with the entire team out, and a team that would have beaten them if they had a kicker in Georgia, and that was without McEntyre and Harris on his first week... Can't wait for the playoffs to begin.
 

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Boy that's bullcrap... As a Preds fan I am outraged by this calamity...
 

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OLY puts up their numbers and PINNY takes down EVERYTHING except CMB-PHL. Everything else has been OFFLINE for 45 minutes. Fortunately, I grabbed CHI -9.5 there and then got GR +15 at OLY for a middle shot. Worked last week with CMB-NY!
 

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Alright, I've decided that this week my numbers are all screwy... so it's intuition only and a much smaller base of playing. Guarantee you that next week is going to be a huge card because these lines will be all over the place because of teams having squat to play for. I'm leaving town tomorrow morning and won't return until Monday afternoon, so my hope is that the lines don't get released until Tuesday... but if they do come out early, I don't think it's gonna matter, because I just have this feeling that there will be PLENTY of good pickings...

But for this week...

Chicago (-11.5) vs. Grand Rapids (4 units -109): Simply put: Chicago got embarassed last week and needs to win this one to stand any chance of winning the division or winning a wild card. Grand Rapids sucks... even if they did just beat Colorado a couple weeks back. Grand Rapids won't cover this one on the road, just like they've had all sorts of road troubles this year.

San Jose (-4.5) @ Arizona (3 units -101): Basically the same spot. This line is so low because of the fact that this is a rivalry game. It wouldn't surprise me to see Arizona upset the Kitties, but San Jose knows if they don't turn it on now, they might be done... And that's a REAL scary proposition for the defending champs, who marched into Arizona last year for the Arena Bowl and killed Arizona... This Arizona team is a shell of its old self and I think the Saberkitties will give a statement to Colorado or whomever it is they play in the first round of the playoffs...

Nashville (ml) @ Colorado (1 unit +230) This is the time of year that the real big upsets occur in the big games... Colorado needs this one. Nashville needs it more. I like the way this team is playing and think that they are the... *gasp*... BETTER TEAM in this game.... I'll take my shots that the Kats keep it rolling in the biggest game of the year for them at over 3-1. Colorado's dropped significantly since the outset and makes me really pissed that I have a futures bet on them to win the Arena Bowl...

Dallas (ml) @ Georgia (1 unit +209): Georgia's won their games already. They know that any combo between their wins and New York's losses in the next 2 weeks is enough for the 1 seed. Dallas knows loss and go home. I hate this Dallas team, but they match up very well against Georgia and Orlando, who play basically the same style. Again, in a "must-win" vs. a "not necessary," I'll take the team at over 3-1, even though I will be rooting real hard against it to get my Preds in the playoffs...

New Orleans (-6.5) vs. Austin (3 units -108) Voodoo need this one going into the Jungle next week... We already have a futures on the Voodoo winning this game, because a Voodoo win and we get our money back if they lose to Orlando (which we'll need to get Orlando over 9.5 wins). New Orleans knows remembers they were beaten by this team in Austin just a few weeks ago, but we also saw Austin's best effort possible against Orlando. This New Orleans team is much better than THAT Orlando team was, and the game is in the Graveyard, where the Voodoo don't lose (especially after losing last week... lol). New Orleans has now lost 5 games at home in two seasons... Two to Orlando and two to Colorado... oh, and Georgia... Austin won't be added to that list... not even close. New Orleans knows EXACTLY what John Fitzgerald is doing, and I look for him to have an unfortunate injury due to the Voodoo pass rush, as they HATED him in New Orleans....

Las Vegas (ml) @ Los Angeles (1 unit +160): Give me the better team and the 2.60-1... I'm still not sold on LA even though they've beaten San Jose twice. These guys have lost some bad bad games this year, and I really don't think they're gonna win the division. Vegas knows a win and a San Jose loss and they're in the driver's seat for the division title. Too much riding on this game for both teams, but Vegas is fighting for their life. LA is fighting for their seed.

Tampa (-6) vs. New York (3 units +121): I think we look back at this and laugh really hard when the day is done Sunday.... Tampa has EVERYTHING to play for and have already beaten everyone in the South and San Jose at home this season. They just don't lose there. New York will have absolutely zero to play for if Georgia wins and Dallas loses, both very probable. I think this is about where this line SHOULD be, and I'd be all over the Storm at that. Marcum is too big to have his team miss out on the playoffs, and with Columbus looming, this one will be a nice stepping stone for the Storm to make a playoff push.

Nashville/Colorado under 105.5 (2 units -104): 105.5 in a Nashville game? Pulease.... Nashville won't let Colorado get to 55 and they ain't scoring 55... A game in the 80s won't surprise me in the least. Colorado's hurry up isn't working against Nashville. Remember last time these teams played? 40-32 Colorado... Nashville's gonna give them a game and they're gonna do it on defense.

San Jose/Arizona under 108.5 (2 units -104): Arizona's had problems scoring all season, though Bonner looks like he's got the troops firing again. San Jose's offense can be unstoppable at times, but at others, like against LA, they just look putred. The first time these two played, I believe the game was in the 80s, and I look for something in the low 90s again, especially if Arizona keeps it within a TD for a good period of time.

Philadelphia/Columbus under 106 (3 units -106): Ach, I'm playing under in a Philly game... This disgusts me.... a lot.... But Columbus shouldn't be involved in a 106 game. Their defense has been solid this season very quietly, and I think a couple stops on Graziani isn't out of the question, especially the way they play offense... you know, incomplete, complete for a first down, incomplete, incomplete, incomplete, missed FG... 4 minutes, 0 points... lol

Best of luck. Be back Monday.

--AFLGuru:toast:
 

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I have a kind of off topic qestion for you AFL Guru, and any other Arena fan reading this. I have no knowledge of AFL football, but my NO Saints drafted Adrian Mcpherson formally of Flordia ST. I understand he won ROY in arena football last season. For all you people who have seen him play AFL ball, is he as good as advertised? Will his play transfer to the NFL? Thanks guys in advance.
 

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I thought he got too much credit. The credit last year in INDY should have gone to the new HC, Mike Wilpolt. Under Steve Deberg, INDY was 0-5. They get rid of him and bring in Wilpolt, who is now DC in LA, and they go on a 8-3 run the rest of the way. No doubt McPherson was good, but no one credits Wilpolt.
 

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LV - Dolozel listed as 'doubtful' but coach says he'll play

FYI - article in Thursday LV newspaper: "Las Vegas quarterback Clint Dolezel sprained his left foot in that game. He was off crutches Wednesday but did not practice.

James said Dolezel will play Saturday, and the club did not bring in a third quarterback for insurance.

"Nothing's for sure, but I'm planning to (play)," Dolezel said. "It depends how fast it heals."

That's too 'iffy' for me to bet on the game.<!-- TEXT of COL2 -->
 

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scott w said:
I thought he got too much credit. The credit last year in INDY should have gone to the new HC, Mike Wilpolt. Under Steve Deberg, INDY was 0-5. They get rid of him and bring in Wilpolt, who is now DC in LA, and they go on a 8-3 run the rest of the way. No doubt McPherson was good, but no one credits Wilpolt.

McPherson was good period. He was a major talent in college and did nothing in the AFL to suggest that he is not capable of being successful in the NFL. This kid could be huge for NO. Saints fans should be excited.
 

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I think McPherson is definitely a quality player and worth a late-round draft pick. In fact, I think he's going to be the 3rd most successful QB of this draft but that's not exactly saying a lot. I see his career going the way of Charlie Batch and Jeff Blake.....he can put up great numbers and look great at times but he is not consistent. However, i will not go so far as to say he will be another Jake "The Fake" Plummer because no one is as inconsistent and erratic as him with the possible exception of Aaron Brooks. McPherson will start somewhere for 2 years and then be a back-up for 5-6 years.
 

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Thanks guys for you imput.:toast:
 

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If you took the all the dogs in week 16 at the best number (read: Dallas +7), you would have gone 7-0-1.
 

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choptalk said:
I have a kind of off topic qestion for you AFL Guru, and any other Arena fan reading this. I have no knowledge of AFL football, but my NO Saints drafted Adrian Mcpherson formally of Flordia ST. I understand he won ROY in arena football last season. For all you people who have seen him play AFL ball, is he as good as advertised? Will his play transfer to the NFL? Thanks guys in advance.

Choptalk--

Sorry for the late reply, but I was out of town and sulking about yet another horrific week this weekend... I have a couple views of AD MacPherson since I also am a student at FSU and know all of the crapola going on up in Tallahassee about him. Florida State recruited him as the next Charlie Ward, and they were half right about MacPherson. He's not quite Charlie Ward... he's faster than Ward (40 time and in terms of game speed), he's got a better arm than Ward (and Ward could throw the ball 60 yards on the run no problem), and he's more accurate than Ward... But Ward wasn't an idiot like MacPherson is. Yes, when AD got on the field for the Firebirds last year the results were very good. But his on field decisions are questionable at times, and he made too many really big mistakes at seemingly the most inopportune moments for Indiana. And let's keep in mind that this is the AFL, not the bigs... I don't think he's gonna make it as a QB in the NFL because of his attitude, which still sucks from what it sounds like, and the fact that he hasn't read a zone defense in his life, and the game that he did he threw... or was just that bad... fill in your own conclusion.

Honestly, I think Rix has a better shot of making it in the NFL than MacPherson does AS A QUARTERBACK, but for a 5th round pick, your Saints made an absolute steal, and a guy that can be groomed to do many things. I could very easily see AD maybe not this year, but certainly in the future, turning into an Antwaan Randle El type of guy, but I don't think he's gonna work out as a quarterback. Great athlete, peanut brain...

--AFLGuru
 

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Chicago (-11.5) vs. Grand Rapids L (-4 units): Anyone else think that Grand Rapids has been fixing games lately, or has Michael Bishop really come along?

San Jose (-4.5) @ Arizona L (-3 units): Don't even get me started... I hate this San Jose team and just knew it was a lousy bet when I made it... Just had that feeling they were gonna go down...

Nashville (ml) @ Colorado L (-1 unit) Came real close... REALLY close... but the Kats are now trying to play spoiler.

Dallas (ml) @ Georgia L (-1 unit): Dallas tanked the season... Georgia wanted to make sure they were the 1 seed.

New Orleans (-6.5) vs. Austin L (-3 units)... I continue to underestimate the Wranglers... they've been one of the best cover teams in the AFL but aren't putting the wins up on the board...

Las Vegas (ml) @ Los Angeles L (-1 unit): Vegas gets a break by San Jose losing... and might have lost their QB in the process. LA seems like a team of destiny.

Tampa (-6) vs. New York L (-3 units): L... I don't want to talk about this game, as if New York had shown up to win instead of to cover the line of 3.5, my Preds would already be in the playoffs...

Nashville/Colorado under 105.5 W (+1.92 units): W... too easy like I figured... too bad the Kats couldn't hold on...

San Jose/Arizona under 108.5 W (+1.92 units): W... San Jose is the luckiest team in the AFL...

Philadelphia/Columbus under 106 L (-3 units)... Missed by a point... always hurts...
 

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