Guru's Golden Picks: Arena League Week 15

[AFLGuru]

Okay, I am REALLY disappointed with this past week, as you can surely tell. Two 5 unit plays lose and ALL of the 2nd halfers lose... I know my 2nd halves have been off this year, but that got insane. Hope there's a 2nd half rebound coming this week. I feel really bad about all of this. Not many breaks going our way, but again, after week 13, I'm not one to complain over it... But some of this just got outrageous. Colorado not scoring from inside the 5 with over a minute left... would've given us the 2nd half over and Colorado -1.5 on San Jose... Vegas going for 2 (which by the way, was ABSOLUTELY the right thing to do). And worse than all of that, my Preds are sending a couple more guys to injured reserve after this week's debacle and we lost by dropping a TD pass at the end of the game... so I think we got what we had coming to us...

I WILL not be here tomorrow afternoon, as I will be in going through surgery tomorrow. That being said, I will make a few plays off of the lines whether they be Tuesday night or Wednesday morning... and if I'm that out of it still by Wednesday morning, I'll probably play through Olympic Wednesday afternoon. So just be prepared for that. Here's the recap thus far... and the recap from last week...

Philly (+7.5) @ Orlando W (+4.76 units)

Colorado (-14.5) @ Grand Rapids L (-4 units)

Arizona/LA over 101 W (+2.86 units)

New York/Dallas under 102 L (-3.5 units)

Chicago (-3) vs. Las Vegas L (-5 units)

Colorado (-1.5) vs. San Jose IMAGINARY MATCHUP L (-5 units -108)

Garcia to throw TD #700 in 1st quarter W (+2.67)

New Orleans (ml) @ Tampa L (-2 units)

Remy Hamilton under 13 points W (+2.46 units)

Colorado (-10) @ Grand Rapids 2nd half L (-3 units)

Colorado/Grand Rapids over 55 2nd half L (-3.5 units)

New Orleans (-1) @ Tampa 2nd half L (-3 units)

Bloody truth... Worst week of the year by far... 4-8 (-16.25 units)

YTD through 14 weeks
Against the opening line: 40-24-2 (62.50%)
Against that same closing line: 37-28-1 (56.92%)

Sides Record: 29-24 (54.72%) (+28.20 units)
Totals Record: 26-16 (61.90%) (+28.78 units)
Parlays: 1-2 (+0.55 units)
1st half: 2-4 (-2.73 units)
2nd half: 13-14 (-3.02 units)
Teasers: 0-1 (-3 units)
Props: 10-9 (+1.01 units)

Composite Record

YTD: 81-70 (53.64%)
Net: +49.79 units
Actual ATS (Sides + Totals + 1st halfs + 2nd halfs): 70-58 (54.69%)

Units Wagered: 441 units
Units Won: 49.79 units
Net %: 11.29% profit per unit wagered

... The couple days away will probably be good.....

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[scottw]

Bye Bye Browder

<TABLE width=397><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD align=middle></TD><TD align=middle></TD><TD align=middle></TD><TD align=middle></TD><TD align=middle></TD><TD align=middle></TD><TD align=middle></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl22 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=3 height=17>GRAND RAPIDS RAMPAGE</TD><TD align=middle></TD><TD align=middle></TD><TD align=middle></TD><TD align=middle></TD><TD align=middle></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl23 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=2 height=17>RELEASED</TD><TD align=middle></TD><TD align=middle></TD><TD align=middle></TD><TD align=middle></TD><TD align=middle></TD><TD align=middle></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17></TD><TD class=xl23 align=middle>QB</TD><TD class=xl23 align=middle>Nick Browder</TD><TD class=xl23 align=middle>6’1</TD><TD class=xl23 align=middle x:num>210</TD><TD class=xl23 align=middle x:num>5</TD><TD class=xl24 align=middle x:num="27492">4/8/1975</TD><TD class=xl23 align=middle>Valparaiso</TD></TR></TBODY>

</TABLE>

 

[buzz21]

Good luck today Guru - heal up and press that button for the meds when it hurts too much !!!!

 

[TOMMYB]

I Hope All Went Well For You And You Are Back To Your Old Self Again , Good Luck And God Speed To A Quick And 100 % Recovery. Tommy B

 

[GreenValley]

Olympic Openers

Trying to fill in the information gap until AFLGura returns.


Chicago 2- 102

New York 15 103
Orlando 6 101
Nashville 9 101
Las Vegas 3 103-
San Jose 9 108-

New Orleans 3- 107
Georgia 3 97

 

[AFLGuru]

Good afternoon to all! Surgery went a bit worse than I thought, as I ended up being stuck in the hospital overnight and then in my own bed for until last night. Haven't eaten a whole heck of a lot, but I'm up and about, feeling better now than I have in the past month and a half, so I guess that counts for something. Looks like we haven't had these stupidly ridiculous line movements this week, but still, I'll tread carefully...

Friday Night
Chicago (ml) @ Arizona (4.5 units -140): Chicago enters this week having pulled a bit of a miracle out against Vegas. Vegas made the proper call, but I have learned my lesson about some points in this instance. I was going to sell this down to 2, but decided it would be plenty safe to play on the moneyline. The Rush were given the gift of deciding their own fate for the division after the Colorado debacle... Can't see the Rush losing this one, despite the fact that they've never won in the Snake Pit. Team is too hot to lose to a team that's tanked it right now.

Saturday Night
New York (-12) @ Columbus (3 units -105): Dragons come into this one off of the huge win @ Dallas to let them clamp the division. Dallas has a tough road test this week @ Vegas, thus making this game a must. Columbus nearly beat the Dragons in their visit to Nationwide Arena, but in this one isn't in Columbus... it's in New York, where the Dragons have historically killed people. Also looking at my logic of before... Grand Rapids and Columbus especially, hardly EVER cover on the road. I'll take my chances here again that Garcia and gang keep the cover train rolling against Columbus.

Orlando (-6.5) @ Austin (5 units -105): Okay, people know that I don't like betting a ton of Preds games, but this week is TOO good to pass up. This is a "who's your daddy" game, and the Preds WILL roll in this one. The Preds' defense got laughed out of the building by Tony Graziani last week in a game that I warned the world about. Orlando would've won the game anyway (but not even come close to covering) if they had a kicker... So to rectify the situation, the Preds brought back last year's kicker of the year, Jay Taylor, since he's been cut by the Bucs. Everyone in Orlando is rejoicing. So on probably 75% of his kickoffs this week thanks to the shortened arena, Austin will start on their own 5. Kenny McEntyre and Reggie Doster are both playing this week. Michael Brown is coming back from injury. Justin Skaggs might suit. For the first time in weeks, both fullbacks are fully healthy. Things are looking very promising for Orlando, despite being without Joe Hamilton, who is going to rest another week before the bye to make sure he's ready, and Jimmy Fryzel, who is on IR one more week. But before we look at this "backup quarterback" syndrome, let's consider that Sanders has yet to turn the ball over. The Preds have lost the ball 4 times since Joe left the New York game... 3 of those were fumbles by fullbacks, and one was a fumble by, I believe Jerrian James. The Preds will be hurting having to put Cory Fleming at OS again, meaning more playing time for Bret Cooper and Jerrian James at jack linebacker. But the line LOVES playing against Fitzgerald, and I don't think this game is going to be very close either. Something like 57-36 expected.

New York/Columbus under 105 (2 units -105): Reasoning as above more or less. Columbus offense is downright terrible. New York's defense is much improved from what the experts once believed. 105 seems about a TD too high, though we've seen the Dragons score some BS TDs this season...

Dallas (+2.5) @ Las Vegas (2 units +100): This is an elimination game for all intents and purposes. With a loss, Dallas will likely be a game and a half back in the division and for the wild card spot, making it nearly impossible for them to run down anyone. As for Vegas, this isn't the absolute end all, figuring that either SJ or LA has to lose, which would keep them within a game. Vegas is a big SJ fan this week, as if LA loses Saturday night paired with a Vegas victory, the Glads are in, and the Avengers are out (as it would stand at week's end). As for Dallas, though they are coming back to earth after a great start, the same can be said for this Vegas team. This game should be close all the way, as both defenses will do enough to keep both offenses in check for just long enough. Mark Lewis is the worse kicker in this game, and any time I can get a couple points against a bad kicker with two very evenly matched teams, I will take it. This should be a fun one.

San Jose (-9.5) vs. Los Angeles (5 units -105): Oh man do I feel bad for the Avengers in this one. San Jose is coming off of a terrible loss that brought them back to the field when they clearly overlooked the hottest team in the Arena League in the Kats. LA has looked vulnerable for a good chunk of this season, and believe me... San Jose remembers giving up 70+ to LA on the road. SJ will win this game VERY handlely, as Mark Grieb is too on fire, the wide receivers are just too fast, and the defense is still getting too much pressure for LA, still short a lineman let's not forget, to deal with. I think San Jose walks away from this one very early and pulls away for a 28+ point victory.

Props
Two that will be classified as "sucker" props...

Will any team score less than 28.5 points? NO (4 units -108): Look, this is the AFL. Reasonably, we're getting -108 that Columbus, LA, and Grand Rapids score at least 5 times... And it's really hard to not score 5 times in the AFL. Grand Rapids is really the team that scares me in this, as Nashville only shut them out in the 2nd half of their visit to Grand Rapids about a month ago that started this streak the Kitty Kats are on. But really, this is still the AFL and scoring under 28.5 points doesn't even come close to happening in 50% of the weeks.

Special teams or defensive TD Tampa @ Georgia? NO (3 units +114): People have gotten so used to me saying that this prop is a joke... And it is... But with the way the odds have come out on this one, I've got a hard time not taking no at +114. Anything can happen in the AFL, but a TD on special teams or defense doesn't happen every other game either.

Good to be back ladies and gents. I'll see you all around this weekend. Hope we start my return right with a Rush thumping this week.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[MathProf]

Glad that you're back and feeling better.

Good luck this weekend!

 

[scottw]

With you on the NO prop; 28.5 is a low number.

Along with that I have: LV +2, LV over 101, GR under 101, GA -3, NY -7 -126.

A CHI win tonight and I cash my 2 unit bet on CHI over 8.5 wins.

 

[ebunny]

Under 28.5 Points in a Game Prop

Welcome back, Guru. Hope you recovery is quick and I want to thank you for all the helpful advice this year.
On the under 28.5 points in a game prop, I think you should stay off it if you want to bet "No". In the last six weeks, there have been eight games under 28.5 points and five out of those six weeks have had a game under 28.5 points.

 

[AFLGuru]

EBunny--

I'm aware that this is what some would call a "suckers" bet. Unfortunately Philly's not playing this week, which gets rid of 2 automatic teams over 28.5, but still... if we get through Columbus, Austin (which I don't think is going to be a huge problem) and Grand Rapids (the one I'm truly worried about), it's a gimme. We'll know tonight.
Oh and Scott... a win tonight and I cash my Nashville OVER 5.5 wins... Lol... Had to take the dig. Anyway, you think those guys REALLY have a shot at the playoffs? I mean, I know it takes winning out, but tonight they've got Grand Rapids off of a win, meaning they ain't doing anything, then travel to Colorado, who might very well have 6 losses by then as well, and close hosting Chicago. Figure that it's very possible after this week to see Chicago, Colorado, and LA at 8-6 and Vegas at 7-7. If that's the case, Chicago and Colorado would both have 7 losses after Nashville was done with them, and hell... I guess they could still technically win the division... though the Rush still have Grand Rapids... your over 8.5 is safe. But check this out.

Colorado (8-5): @ New Orleans, vs. Nashville, @ New York... very easily could finish 8-8

Los Angeles (8-5): @ San Jose, vs. Vegas, @ Grand Rapids... should finish 10-6

Las Vegas (7-6): vs. Dallas, @ LA, vs. Arizona... could finish 8-8 easily

That being said, this COULD be your final standings in that conference...

San Jose (11-5)
Chicago (9-7)
LA (10-6)
Nashville (8-7-1)

C'mon now, tell me you can't see that happening with the way Colorado has played of late? And wouldn't that be a fun first game... Nashville @ San Jose... feels like I've seen that at some point recently....

 

[scottw]

Absolutely NAS has a shot. Look at all that has gone right for them lately. Except for LA beating AZ, everything has gone their way the last 2 weeks. If they get to 8 wins, 4 other teams need 9. We may have only 1 team at 9 after this week, and NAS plays COL and CHI still. I know my under 5.5 is dead, but I'm sure hoping my 2 units on NO playoffs for NAS holds up. The way COL is folding they may not get to 9. LV is no lock. Neither is SJ or LA, whoever loses. How can a 1-7 team get to the playoffs? Just watch.

Need ORL to win tonight to ensure no worse than a push for my AUS under 6. If LV loses, best I can do is push LV over 9. The big ones are CHI over 8.5, no sure thing now, and LA under 9.5, which I say comes down to LV at LA next week.

 

[AFLGuru]

Yeah, my futures are look alright. I had Dallas under which is dead, Arizona under which is golden, Columbus under which is golden, New Orleans over 8 and 9, which will win, Orlando over 9.5, which will win and LA under 9 which looks iffy. I think San Jose is gonna help that. Oh yeah, I have Austin under too... which would help. When I do the recap after tonight I'll add that crapola in there.

New York is up 7... and it's a disgusting 7... New York has a FG, 3 TDs, and 3 missed PATs to get them to 21... Game's on pace, though New York has one more stop than Columbus does.

 

[AFLGuru]

New York picks up a stop... New York gives back the stop 1 play later... great....

 

[AFLGuru]

21-14 Dragons at the half. Under looking good, but the game is on pace, so we need a couple stops in the 2nd half that get capitalized on...

 

[AFLGuru]

New York up 8, but not looking promising to cover, as it's Columbus ball... Preds up a half stop, down a FG... D looks real good now that they're healthy.

 

[AFLGuru]

Orlando might not reach 29 in this game... they're gonna be down 12 and it should be a lot more going into the half...

 

[AFLGuru]

Push for NY, winner on the under...

 

[AFLGuru]

Preds down 26-14 at the half, getting the ball to start... but this isn't gonna be close after Austin stops Orlando to start the half. Orlando's offense looks terrible... The defense looks all-world, but the offense keeps letting Austin start with good position after the offense can score squat.

 

[AFLGuru]

Orlando/Austin under 49.5 2nd half (3 units -105): No sort of a system play... just a play from watching Orlando's offense. If they win this game, they win it on their defense.

 

[scottw]

YES!!! Had NY -7 when Pinny came out, then when OLY came out took NY -11 at PINNY and CMB +14 at OLY. MIDDDDDDDDDDDLE!!!