Guru's Golden Picks: Arena League Week 14

[AFLGuru]

Still pretty high on the Aaron Garcia TD pass and the 15 unit week last week. This is for all of my "trolls" (If you get it, great... if not, it's apparently what you all are according to my new friend Death Eats a Cracker) who still care about winning money despite the fact that I have a $10 unit, where most of you probably have a much higher unit.

This week features a bunch of interesting matchups that will have some very intriguing lines tomorrow afternoon. Picks should be here around 1:45 tomorrow afternoon. Very little in terms of response time after tomorrow, as I have a couple more final exams and then off to go see an ill grandmother before headed to my surgery the following Tuesday. Better have a good week this week.... it's probably gonna have to hold us through week 16, as unless my condition is good out of the hospital, there probably will be no picks to be had week 15.

YTD through 13 weeks
Against the opening line: 38-21-2 (64.41%)
Against that same closing line: 35-25-1 (58.33%)

Sides Record: 28-21 (57.14%) (+34.44 units)
Totals Record: 25-15 (62.50%) (+29.42 units)
Parlays: 1-2 (+0.55 units)
1st half: 2-4 (-2.73 units)
2nd half: 13-11 (+6.48 units)
Teasers: 0-1 (-3 units)
Props: 8-8 (+0.88 units)

Composite Record

YTD: 77-62 (55.40%)
Net: +66.04 units
Actual ATS (Sides + Totals + 1st halfs + 2nd halfs): 67-52 (56.30%)

Units Wagered: 397 units
Units Won: 66.04 units
Net %: 16.63% profit per unit wagered

Until tomorrow my friends...

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[MathProf]

Your picks are outstanding - I hope that your medical problems
pass without further difficulty.

One suggestion - it is very frustrating to lose games that you
list as winners (it has happened to me twice in two weeks)
so I think that you should emphasize your records on spread,
totals and props as of Tuesday afternoon line (3pm est?)
which is fairly stable from that point and should be generally
available to all followers.

Very appreciative of all your efforts.
MP

 

[AFLGuru]

MathProf--

The lines I list for Rx book-keeping are the lines that I see on Pinnacle at the moment that I begin to write my post. When I do the write-ups, the lines have typically moved, and I try listing the lines at those current moments, as well as what I would wager these lines up (or down) to.

Your reason is exactly why I posted the record against the closing line. What this record shows is if you've followed the plays that I made on the opening lines (btw, 1:30 EST) on the closing lines, you had this "x" record of 35-25-1 instead of what I actually posted at 38-21-2.

Obviously I make sure to take care of myself and those very close to me before posting here, and my actual record is 40-20-1 ATS. But what has been instructed of me is to post "available" lines from when you post, and that's what I try to get done.

Yeah, I'm sorry about those couple losses handed to ya that were W's for me. Sometimes that's going to happen. You should have been here earlier in the season when I started off with like 14 plays without a difference in the opening line and closing line. It happens to be that points aren't nearly as valuable in the AFL as they are any other sport because of the nature of the high scoring and unpredictability of freakish plays. 7 is a vastly overrated number by Pinnacle standards in terms of selling onto it and buying off of it, though 7 has come into play more often in the past few weeks than I ever really recall seeing in the AFL before this.

We'll keep plugging away though. I'm doing the best I can to get these plays up here as soon as possible for you and everyone else MathProf. Best of luck.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[MathProf]

Thx for reply - good luck this week! (I'll be waiting for

your picks - poised on my computer!)

 

[AFLGuru]

MathProf and the rest of the "trolls"--

It's only gonna be plays today... No analysis. I've got an exam at 2:30 and then I'm going straight over to Daytona from there. Probably won't be back to finish off the explanations until Wednesday or Thursday. I know, you're all probably heartbroken just having to take my word for it... lol.

Back with picks in about a half hour.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[AFLGuru]

Glaring plays...

Philly (+7.5) @ Orlando (5 units)

 

[AFLGuru]

Anyone taking the LV/Chi game is going to get their bets voided... Chicago is the home team here... Pinny has the home team wrong.

 

[AFLGuru]

Colorado (-14.5) @ Grand Rapids 4 units

 

[scottw]

In week one I took LV +1.5 or so vs. LA when they had LA as the home team instead of LV, and that did NOT get voided. Hope so again, cause I got CHI +3.

 

[AFLGuru]

That Philly/Orlando game should be Philly -2....

 

[scottw]

Glaring plays I made: CHI +3 (IT BETTER STAND), TB -2, ORL-PHL under 102.

 

[AFLGuru]

Arizona/LA over 101 (3 units)

 

[AFLGuru]

I want to see a real Chicago/Vegas line....

 

[AFLGuru]

Arizona/LA over 101 (3 units)

Note that this play was at +100 when I got it...

 

[MathProf]

After your post I got it at over 101 +100

 

[scottw]

Third straight week I have taken PHL +7. Also got DAL -1 -112.

 

[AFLGuru]

I'd love to take Colorado over 11.5... but SOMETHING tells me THAT might get voided...

New York/Dallas under 102 (+110) (3.5 units)... sold all the way down... don't think this one reaches 100...

 

[AFLGuru]

Really tight lines this week... I really don't know what to say to a lot of them.

 

[AFLGuru]

Looks like a group just hit Nashville... went from 17 (-105) to 16 (-110)

 

[MathProf]

Bet the max on over 11.5!arty: