Green D's 2008 Stock Picks/Portfolio

[GreenDoberman]

Keep in mind that I feel the market overall will have a down year, so our goal is to outperform the market not necessarily have huge gains.

I will be putting $500 into each stock giving us a total starting portfolio balance of $10,000.

I will list them by symbol, name, and closing price on 12/31/07 (opening price on 1/1/08) and will give a brief rundown of them afterwards.

1. BUD- Anheuser Busch 52.34
2. C- Citigroup 29.44
3. CAG- ConAgra Foods 23.79
4. D- Dominion Resources 47.45
5. FRE- Freddie Mac 34.07
6. GNK- Genco Shipping 54.76
7. KMB- Kimberly-Clark 69.34
8. NKE- Nike 64.24
9. PFE- Pfizer 22.73
10. BWLD- Buffalo Wild Wings 23.22
11. CYTR- CytRx Corp. 2.84
12. LONG- eLong 8.28
13. JBLU- JetBlue 5.90
14. JMBA- Jamba Juice 3.70
15. JSDA- Jones Soda 7.44
16. MSSR- McCormick and Schmick's 11.93
17. SBUX- Starbucks 20.47
18. TZOO- Travelzoo 13.68
19. VLCM- Volcom 22.03
20. WFMI- Whole Foods 40.80

 

[GreenDoberman]

I'm separating the stocks into three categories: 1) Defensive, 2) Value, 3) Growth.
I'll touch on each category. I may have one or two stocks miscategorized, but needed to find a place for all of them.


1) Defensive stocks- Stocks that should be able to hold there own in a down market. Most are companies that provide staple products that are consumed in both good and bad times.

BUD- We drink in both good and bad times. BUD has been relatively stagnant, but has made some wise investments overseas. A decent dividend on a stock that should be a nice hedge on a recession.

CAG- ConAgra produces many food a huge variety of food products, the most notables being Orville Reddenbacher popcorn and Chef Boyardee. Food prices are rising with inflation and they also have many private label (re: generic) products as well.

D- Dominion Resources is a solid utility that dips into the energy market as well. Well run with a stable dividend, D continue to produce both income and stock appreciation. One of the superior utility choices out there.

GNK- Genco might be miscategorized here but it's nearly 5% dividend places it here. Low forward P/E and a strong growth record make it a solid play.

KMB- Paper towels, diapers,toilet paper give me "things we have to use" for a hundred. Another virtually recession-proof industry represented here. Won't see a home run out of it, but also won't strike out which many will this upcoming year.

NKE- Nike is everywhere. Globally they just keep growing and put their stamp on every sporting event. Strong year last year yields high expectations, but management continually proves they know how to get results.

 

[GreenDoberman]

2) Value stocks- many of these stocks have taken a big hit recently. Some market overreaction to conditions has left them ripe for the picking as bargain basement prices. Any pleasant surprises on the companies' part could yield big gains.

C- Citicorp is the dregs of Wall Street right now. Writedowns on sub-primes and management bungling have cut the stock over 40% last year. Hold your nose and dive in as Citi is still a cash cow, the writeoffs are overpriced in the stock loss, and new management can only get better.

FRE- Freddie Mac is another victim of the mortgage collapse. The saying it is "always darkest before the dawn" applies here. A stalwart company that will only improve results from last year going forward.

PFE- Pfizer has underperformed for years in my personal portfolio. They have had no good news since Viagra perked them up years ago. Many have dumped the underperformer despite it's nice dividend. Fits into the any good news will prop up the stock category since it can't go much lower.

LONG- Badly mismanaged Chinese travel company has a new head honcho. With the 2008 Olympics in Beijing and the growing Chinese economy, this one could double. A steal at current price versus it's cash reserves as well.

JBLU- I fly JetBlue frequently. Hadn't looked at their stock price and was surprised to see it at the level it was at. People will pay a small premium on their travel needs with JetBlue's superior service. A well-run company that can be had for a song.

MSSR- One of my favorite seafood restaurants and one that got cut in half in value last year. Still expanding and a few menu changes should help results. This one isn't losing money and is near its bottom in price.

SBUX- By now everyone is addicted to Starbucks right? So last year they couldn't keep up with their spectacular gains and the market slashed them in half as well. Well get some stock with your double-latte as this one is still a winner.

TZOO- I get my weekly emails from Travelzoo. I had never looked at their stock. It was another that stood out as it had sunk dramatically. A solid, if not speculative, value play here that could be a nice returner.

 

[GreenDoberman]

3) Growth stocks- these are speculative stocks on rapidly expanding companies. Expect some to go down big and some to go up big. Last year's growth pick Chipotle shot through the roof going up nearly 160% for the year. Don't pick and choose here as they are highly volatile.

BWLD- Rapidly expanding restaurant presence Buffalo Wild Wings is a well run company. They keep it simple, focusing on their core product and have not fell victim to overexpansion. Adhering to the tortoise beats the hare philosophy, they are the darling of many an analyst.

JMBA- Jamba Juice concentrates on a simple core product as well They have stumbled on expanding in the past, but hopefully have learned from their mistakes. At this price, it is worth a stab.

JSDA- Jones Soda has long been a favorite company of mine. They shot from 4 to 31 and nearly back to 4. Management change will focus on bottom-line results. The buzz is there but earnings have not been. Focus on case volume growth as a measure going forward.

VLCM- The trendy teen stock of the year. Just ask your emo teenager what they are wearing and the chances are it's Volcom. Kids love the stuff and it is a nice alternative to the Ambercrombie and Fitch set.

WFMI- If I could only shop at one store the rest of my life it would be Whole Foods. Simply put, they focus on quality. The service is amazing, the employees friendly, and the product top of the line.

CYTR- A small-cap company focusing on developing products for diseases such as cancer and AIDS. Top-notch employees give this the nod as the swing for the fences stock.

 

[GreenDoberman]

Feel free to add comments, criticisms, or questions. Hopefully we can follow this portfolio throughout the year.

 

[HuskerFan1]

will be interesting to see how they do in 08'

gl i like emc under $18 its at liek 16.90ish ill track that one and see how it does in 08'

 

[ILMW]

Green did you decide against Ford?

 

[UoweDucks]

couple of comments;

I like the contrarian nature of several of your picks as many of these names have been blown out in 2007. Biggest thing that stands out to me is lack of technology stocks. On the value side I think you have to look at semis now trading at historic low valuations. As for growth I think you need some large cap tech as well, as poster above states I am loving EMC here in mid teens. Best of luck.



1. BUD- Anheuser Busch 52.34
2. C- Citigroup 29.44
3. CAG- ConAgra Foods 23.79
4. D- Dominion Resources 47.45
5. FRE- Freddie Mac 34.07
6. GNK- Genco Shipping 54.76
7. KMB- Kimberly-Clark 69.34
8. NKE- Nike 64.24
9. PFE- Pfizer 22.73
10. BWLD- Buffalo Wild Wings 23.22
11. CYTR- CytRx Corp. 2.84
12. LONG- eLong 8.28
13. JBLU- JetBlue 5.90
14. JMBA- Jamba Juice 3.70
15. JSDA- Jones Soda 7.44
16. MSSR- McCormick and Schmick's 11.93
17. SBUX- Starbucks 20.47
18. TZOO- Travelzoo 13.68
19. VLCM- Volcom 22.03
20. WFMI- Whole Foods 40.80

 

[GreenDoberman]

ILMW,
Never gave Ford serious consideration. Not a big personal believer in there product, thus not a serious investor.

 

[GreenDoberman]

UoweDucks,
Good point on the technology aspect. Actually the last 5 stocks that did not make the cut were all technology stocks including Cisco, Oracle, and a few Chinese tech stocks. So they were given consideration, I just did not feel as comfortable with a company whose product was not as tangible to me.
I have had some tech stocks in the past, it is just they missed the cut barely this year.
As for semis, that is another that I have owned in the past (TSM and Intel specifically) but for one reason or another (mainly being the familiarity with products) were not on this year's list.

 

[UoweDucks]

GD,
I have done very well in the past on small cap semi's. I do have lot of familiarity with them though so I can see your trepidation. One idea would be to buy SMH. That way you get the bounce without stock specific risk.

I just think it is a real mistake going forward without any exposure here. IMO.

Hell if you were thinking about CSCO why not look into FLEX? Cheap way to play csco IMO. With their purchase of SLR you get nice exposure to csco + benefit of capacity reduction which is on its way.

 

[GreenDoberman]

Good stuff UOwe and will definitely consider and look into that stock and a few others. Appreciate the input.

 

[RoofTop]

Start with 10K

Take 1K and put it on LSU ML tonight. After you win, take the 11K and put it in an ING account drawing 4.5%. At the end of the year you will have $11,486.

That will be about a 14.86% return

If you need anymore financial advice, let me know.

 

[HuskerFan1]

if you want an entry point on emc its today its down 1.20 into the 15's...im gonna go check todays news and see if its anything negetive, if its just the overall market trend, then there's your 08' from this date.....

 

[Brotherwo]

Feel free to add comments, criticisms, or questions. Hopefully we can follow this portfolio throughout the year.

I'd like to hear a little of your insight on Whole Foods. With the economy and world moving towards green ideals, this company interest me. Or maybe this company interest me because I live in hippieville Boulder, CO.

Anyways
Do you think this stock is becoming under valued at 35.95? Any reasoning on why this stock will rebound?

 

[GreenDoberman]

Brother,
WFMI is more of a personal play for me. I shop at the store and love it. I have personally seen some of their newer stores and think that their growth has a long ways to go before it slows.

The stock has been relatively stagnant and they have had some management issues, but I feel it will certainly be a long term winner.

The pick is based not as much on fundamentals of financial figures as it is just a personal favorite. Kind of that Peter Lynch thing I touched on in investing in products and companies you believe in and use.

Like I said, go to a normal grocery store and then go to a Whole Foods. If you don't see the difference there, you could never believe in this company.

 

[Brotherwo]

Brother,
WFMI is more of a personal play for me. I shop at the store and love it. I have personally seen some of their newer stores and think that their growth has a long ways to go before it slows.

The stock has been relatively stagnant and they have had some management issues, but I feel it will certainly be a long term winner.

The pick is based not as much on fundamentals of financial figures as it is just a personal favorite. Kind of that Peter Lynch thing I touched on in investing in products and companies you believe in and use.

Like I said, go to a normal grocery store and then go to a Whole Foods. If you don't see the difference there, you could never believe in this company.

Hey thanks for the feedback. I'm with you on how this business makes sense and their future looks promising. I think the monopoly issues with Wild Oats hurt them over the last 6 months, but I feel theyll rebound nicely. Good luck I look forward to see what happens with this portfolio.

 

[RoofTop]

Start with 10K

Take 1K and put it on LSU ML tonight. After you win, take the 11K and put it in an ING account drawing 4.5%. At the end of the year you will have $11,486.

That will be about a 14.86% return

If you need anymore financial advice, let me know.

Alright GD, I got you up 10% yesterday, you want some more of where that came from?

:money8:

 

[JustWin]

GD-
Time to buy some more JetBlue, closed at 4.96 today

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

Why arent there any precious metals stocks in your portfolio?

If so, I didnt notice any names I own.

I think the economy is toast this year, but that doesnt necessarily equate to the stock market going up or down.

Good luck to you.