Monday night home dogs have a solid history (don't know the exact percentage) of covering the number. That said, I see some excellent situational trends here. This is a bigtime rivalry game, the Bears are christening their remodeled field, the Bears are 0-2 off a bye week and the Pack are on their second straight game on the road. I would anticipate a maximum emotional performance by the Bears. Meanwhile, the Pack does have Farve on offense but that's about it. The Pack are seriously depleted at the skill offensive positions (wide receiver in particular). This should be a good meat-grinder type game that's decided by a field goal. I think the Pack are down a bit this year but still a public favorite because of Farve. The number (Pack -4.5 at Canbet) is artificially inflated. I like the Bears in this one.
JW - every Monday when the home team is a dog, somebody mentions that Mon nite H dogs are a good proposition...NOT true...over the past 10-12 years Mon nite H dogs are almost exactly 50% ATS.
Your other points are well-taken, but Favre owns Da Bears (10-4 after a bye week). "Brett Favre has feasted on the Bears. He’s 18-4 and has a 94.1 passer rating against them since becoming the Packers’ starting quarterback in 1992. He hasn’t lost at Soldier Field since 1993."
I just can't take Kordell (50 passer rating) over Brett even with 4.5 points. "The Bears signed Stewart as a free agent during the offseason to be their starter, but in two games, his passer rating is 50.0, and the Bears have scored only 20 points. He’s ill-fitted for offensive coordinator John Shoop’s pocket-oriented, ball-control passing game. Chicago is vulnerable on the offensive line with two starters out, and it’s already allowed eight sacks in two games. The Bears traded defensive tackle Ted Washington because of salary-cap and injury concerns. The defense has missed him this year. No one has missed him more than MLB-Brian Urlacher, who is one of the top handful of defensive players in the NFL. He has great speed and explosiveness for a 6-foot-4, 258-pounder. But he’s a converted safety who thrived when behemoths Washington and Keith Traylor kept offensive linemen off him on run downs. He’s had problems shedding blockers now that Washington is gone."
Your other points are well-taken, but Favre owns Da Bears (10-4 after a bye week). "Brett Favre has feasted on the Bears. He’s 18-4 and has a 94.1 passer rating against them since becoming the Packers’ starting quarterback in 1992. He hasn’t lost at Soldier Field since 1993."
I just can't take Kordell (50 passer rating) over Brett even with 4.5 points. "The Bears signed Stewart as a free agent during the offseason to be their starter, but in two games, his passer rating is 50.0, and the Bears have scored only 20 points. He’s ill-fitted for offensive coordinator John Shoop’s pocket-oriented, ball-control passing game. Chicago is vulnerable on the offensive line with two starters out, and it’s already allowed eight sacks in two games. The Bears traded defensive tackle Ted Washington because of salary-cap and injury concerns. The defense has missed him this year. No one has missed him more than MLB-Brian Urlacher, who is one of the top handful of defensive players in the NFL. He has great speed and explosiveness for a 6-foot-4, 258-pounder. But he’s a converted safety who thrived when behemoths Washington and Keith Traylor kept offensive linemen off him on run downs. He’s had problems shedding blockers now that Washington is gone."
