Risk / To Win Amount:
1,000.00 / 6,500.00 (USD)
Date Accepted:14-March-2003
Time Accepted:9:42:06 AM (Pacific)
Odds To Win Divisions
Odds to win the National League Central 2003
Chicago Cubs +650
only knew about this bet a couple of weeks ago so checked to see how the cubs were doing. seems only a few days ago they were 2 games behind with 2 teams in front of them so wtf happened??
1,000.00 / 6,500.00 (USD)
Date Accepted:14-March-2003
Time Accepted:9:42:06 AM (Pacific)
Odds To Win Divisions
Odds to win the National League Central 2003
Chicago Cubs +650
only knew about this bet a couple of weeks ago so checked to see how the cubs were doing. seems only a few days ago they were 2 games behind with 2 teams in front of them so wtf happened??
Chuck, you originally called the bet a "lose no-win situation. Not good, not smart." No offense but I think my instincts might be better on this one.
I probably will hedge the risk, but the Cubs have a very, very good chance to top the Braves. No question about it.
A lot of thanks has to go out to the Brewers too, who not only helped the Cubs get in, but clinching before the final day helps set up the rotation. That was crucial. Kerry Wood is the hottest pitcher in baseball pitching 2 shutouts in a row and allowing 4 runs over 43 innings with 26 hits and 58K's in his last 6 games (0.83 ERA). He hasn't faced the Braves this year but has fared quite well against them in the past -- 2-0, 2.14 ERA, 1.74 ERA at Turner. Batter vs. pitcher shows no one for ATL has had much success against him. In total they are 11-60, 1HR. Cubs hitters have hit Ortiz in the past. I like this matchup.
I probably will hedge the risk, but the Cubs have a very, very good chance to top the Braves. No question about it.
A lot of thanks has to go out to the Brewers too, who not only helped the Cubs get in, but clinching before the final day helps set up the rotation. That was crucial. Kerry Wood is the hottest pitcher in baseball pitching 2 shutouts in a row and allowing 4 runs over 43 innings with 26 hits and 58K's in his last 6 games (0.83 ERA). He hasn't faced the Braves this year but has fared quite well against them in the past -- 2-0, 2.14 ERA, 1.74 ERA at Turner. Batter vs. pitcher shows no one for ATL has had much success against him. In total they are 11-60, 1HR. Cubs hitters have hit Ortiz in the past. I like this matchup.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by blue edwards:
if the cubs (who i still say won't make the playoffs) get the braves in the first round, and its braves -125 for the series...i am going to get a home equity line and have the balance wired straight to pinnacle.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
blue, you better find your lender's phone number...
Series price from Olympic:
Atalnta -125
Chicago +105
Anytime you guys wanna say, 'gee d2bets, maybe I should start listening to you on this thing', that would be OK with me.
Oh yeah, and Wes Clark is going to be the next Prez.
if the cubs (who i still say won't make the playoffs) get the braves in the first round, and its braves -125 for the series...i am going to get a home equity line and have the balance wired straight to pinnacle.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
blue, you better find your lender's phone number...
Series price from Olympic:
Atalnta -125
Chicago +105
Anytime you guys wanna say, 'gee d2bets, maybe I should start listening to you on this thing', that would be OK with me.
Oh yeah, and Wes Clark is going to be the next Prez.
Good Call. You were right and I was wrong on this call. I am surprised that the Braves are only -125, but with the 50 to 1 it would still be a good play even if the Braves were at -200. You have a definite profitable hedge now, and I hope Clark ( or anyone other than Bush ) does win in 2004.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Chuck Sims:
Blue, LOL! I'm with you. If the the Braves are -125 vs. the Cubs I am heading to the bank to get the green stuff. The Braves hitting is phenominal this year. Nothing even comes close to previous Braves teams in the past.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Chuck, you're right on that "no-win" comment. It'll be another week until that one is proven wrong.
I assume you'll be hammering ATL -125? Probably even lower elsewhere.
Blue, LOL! I'm with you. If the the Braves are -125 vs. the Cubs I am heading to the bank to get the green stuff. The Braves hitting is phenominal this year. Nothing even comes close to previous Braves teams in the past.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Chuck, you're right on that "no-win" comment. It'll be another week until that one is proven wrong.
I assume you'll be hammering ATL -125? Probably even lower elsewhere.
Chuck, why bother hedging now to make a lot on the Braves? If Atlanta takes a 2-0 lead, you can always bet Atlanta by game to hedge. But if the Cubs get up on the Braves 2-0 (Houston proved once again anything is possible) with 2 at home, it would not be a good bet to have a big hedge on the Braves. Or if Woods wins the first game, same thing.
If one hedges this series at all, I'd place only enough to make a decent profit or break-even, because a 50-1 WS bet is worth milking on a team with superior pitching. I see this over and over and over again, where good pitching beats good hitting, and in a 5 game series, it's why the Braves are only -125 favorites.
If one hedges this series at all, I'd place only enough to make a decent profit or break-even, because a 50-1 WS bet is worth milking on a team with superior pitching. I see this over and over and over again, where good pitching beats good hitting, and in a 5 game series, it's why the Braves are only -125 favorites.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Jazz:
Chuck, why bother hedging now to make a lot on the Braves? If Atlanta takes a 2-0 lead, you can always bet Atlanta by game to hedge. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Now you want to talk about BAD advice. That is a real whopper. Why bother hedging now ?? Because you have a guaranteed profit with a 50 to 1 ticket. If you wait until Atlanta gets up 2-0 you have lost nearly all if not all of your profit potential. Hedging the play out after Atlanta is up 2-0 would not even return your original investment on the ticket. The way it is now, you have a guaranteed profit providing you can afford to hedge all the way through the World Series if need be.
Chuck, why bother hedging now to make a lot on the Braves? If Atlanta takes a 2-0 lead, you can always bet Atlanta by game to hedge. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Now you want to talk about BAD advice. That is a real whopper. Why bother hedging now ?? Because you have a guaranteed profit with a 50 to 1 ticket. If you wait until Atlanta gets up 2-0 you have lost nearly all if not all of your profit potential. Hedging the play out after Atlanta is up 2-0 would not even return your original investment on the ticket. The way it is now, you have a guaranteed profit providing you can afford to hedge all the way through the World Series if need be.
I never hedged except on Atl to win the series, and only enough to break-even. Prior and Wood were indeed the difference, as D2 said.
Having said that, no way I won't be hedging some on the Marlins - having avoided losing a lot on the Braves who continually make early exits, I stand to win considerably more. I assume D2 has done the same.
[This message was edited by Jazz on October 06, 2003 at 12:06 AM.]
Having said that, no way I won't be hedging some on the Marlins - having avoided losing a lot on the Braves who continually make early exits, I stand to win considerably more. I assume D2 has done the same.
[This message was edited by Jazz on October 06, 2003 at 12:06 AM.]
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Chuck Sims:
I will be making a large bet on the Braves to beat the Cubs. And that Cub future ticket will be worthless. Hedge now!<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Chuck, I usually don't rub it in but....nahhh, forget it.
Lemme guess, Florida will definitely win, right
lol Jazz ya beat me to the thread. And yes of course I will be covering -- and surely with mighty nice odds to use. I'll lock in a nice profit and still make sure to get at least 30 to 35 out of the 50 to 1.
To Kerry Wood and Mark Prior: You guys are the shite!
I will be making a large bet on the Braves to beat the Cubs. And that Cub future ticket will be worthless. Hedge now!<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Chuck, I usually don't rub it in but....nahhh, forget it.
lol Jazz ya beat me to the thread. And yes of course I will be covering -- and surely with mighty nice odds to use. I'll lock in a nice profit and still make sure to get at least 30 to 35 out of the 50 to 1.
To Kerry Wood and Mark Prior: You guys are the shite!
Hey, did you notice what Blue said? he said early in this thread that if the Cubs win the world series, he is eating his left foot. Hey blue, you might end up doing it now..
I would pay to see that..
And for those of you that took Florida at 200-1 and 150-1.. Man, you boys are lucky. Talk about a nice hedge you will have there...
Just play this one smart, and don't get greedy..
And for those of you that took Florida at 200-1 and 150-1.. Man, you boys are lucky. Talk about a nice hedge you will have there...
Just play this one smart, and don't get greedy..
Chuck: thanks ... minimum I'll do is hedge to recover the cost of the wager, I have the next 2 days to decide if I want to hedge more that that on Fla or just wait and see what happens the first 2 games, where hopefully the Cubs will be up 2-0, or no worse than 1-1 with Wood slated to start the 3rd game.
Entropy: If the Marlins open at +160, you can lock in $3,615 no matter what by putting $2,885 on the Marlins to win $4,616. OR you can put only $625 down on the Marlins to have a free shot to win $5,875 on the Cubs - not a bad position to be in! Referring of course to your 'Cubs to Win the NL' bet for 1K to win 6.5K. Nice!
For all Marlins players holding a futures bet at 200 to 1:
I'll assume you haven't hedged yet. For each $100 you've got on this bet, here's how to hedge it NOW to lock in profits or reduce risk under different scenarios - you lucky bastards!!! All scenarios assume the Cubs will open as -160 favorites AND, if the Marlins get to the WS, the AL team will open as -200 favorites (to be safe) - obviously if it doesn't, I can rerun the numbers (I wrote a simple spreadsheet yesterday to do this). I'm also assuming you will put a $160 bet on the Cubs to recover your $100 proposition bet. Also, I'm not going to show my work - lol - unless someone needs to know or has a question. If your units are in terms of $10, simply divide all numbers by 10 to get what you need. I did this because some people may be wondering 'what if' - now they'll know.
hedge at 200-1: you want to lock in the same profit regardless of what happens the rest of the playoffs: for each $100, you can lock in about $2,480 now. Requires $4,120 on the Cubs hedge, $13,400 on the WS hedge - for EACH $100.
hedge at 200-1: you think the Cubs will beat the Marlins, you want ALL profit available if the Cubs win, and wish to break-even in the WS if they don't: for each $100, you can win $4,025 if the Cubs win the pennant. Requires $6,600 on the Cubs hedge, $13,400 on the WS hedge - for EACH $100.
hedge at 200-1: you think the Marlins will beat the Cubs, you want to only recover your original $100 if they don't, but you want to win the same amount in the WS regardless of whether the Marlins win: for each $100, you can win $6,440 if the Marlins win the pennant, whether they take the WS or not. Requires $160 on the Cubs hedge, $13,400 on the WS hedge.
hedge at 200-1: you think the Marlins will beat the Cubs, you want to only recover your original $100 if they don't, and you want to favor the Marlins in the WS - you'll need to make a $160 Cubs hedge bet, then: you'll hedge the AL at -200 - different amts shown below:
a. Hedge $1,050 ... this gives you a Bonus Bet to win $18,790 (you're recovering the $100 prop bet and the $160 covering hedge bet on the Cubbies)
b. Hedge $3,000 ... win $16,840 on Marlins or $1,500 on AL
c. Hedge $5,000 ... win $14,840 on Marlins or $2,240 on AL
d. Hedge $7,000 ... win $12,840 on Marlins or $3,240 on AL
e. Hedge $9,000 ... win $10,840 on Marlins or $4,240 on AL
f. Hedge $11,000 ... win $8,840 on Marlins or $5,240 on AL
g. Hedge $13,400 ... win $6,440 on Marlins or $6,440 on AL
hedge at 200-1: you think the Marlins will beat the Cubs, you want to only recover your original $100 if they don't, and you want to favor the AL in the WS - you'll need to make a $160 Cubs hedge bet, then :
a. Hedge $15,000 ... win $4,840 on Marlins or $7,240 on AL
b. Hedge $17,000 ... win $2,840 on Marlins or $8,240 on AL
c. Hedge $19,000 ... win $840 on Marlins or $9,240 on AL
d. Hedge $19,840 ... win $0 on Marlins or $9,660 on AL
[This message was edited by Jazz on October 06, 2003 at 07:44 AM.]
[This message was edited by Jazz on October 06, 2003 at 07:47 AM.]
[This message was edited by Jazz on October 06, 2003 at 08:06 AM.]
[This message was edited by Jazz on October 06, 2003 at 09:05 AM.]
Entropy: If the Marlins open at +160, you can lock in $3,615 no matter what by putting $2,885 on the Marlins to win $4,616. OR you can put only $625 down on the Marlins to have a free shot to win $5,875 on the Cubs - not a bad position to be in! Referring of course to your 'Cubs to Win the NL' bet for 1K to win 6.5K. Nice!
For all Marlins players holding a futures bet at 200 to 1:
I'll assume you haven't hedged yet. For each $100 you've got on this bet, here's how to hedge it NOW to lock in profits or reduce risk under different scenarios - you lucky bastards!!! All scenarios assume the Cubs will open as -160 favorites AND, if the Marlins get to the WS, the AL team will open as -200 favorites (to be safe) - obviously if it doesn't, I can rerun the numbers (I wrote a simple spreadsheet yesterday to do this). I'm also assuming you will put a $160 bet on the Cubs to recover your $100 proposition bet. Also, I'm not going to show my work - lol - unless someone needs to know or has a question. If your units are in terms of $10, simply divide all numbers by 10 to get what you need. I did this because some people may be wondering 'what if' - now they'll know.
hedge at 200-1: you want to lock in the same profit regardless of what happens the rest of the playoffs: for each $100, you can lock in about $2,480 now. Requires $4,120 on the Cubs hedge, $13,400 on the WS hedge - for EACH $100.
hedge at 200-1: you think the Cubs will beat the Marlins, you want ALL profit available if the Cubs win, and wish to break-even in the WS if they don't: for each $100, you can win $4,025 if the Cubs win the pennant. Requires $6,600 on the Cubs hedge, $13,400 on the WS hedge - for EACH $100.
hedge at 200-1: you think the Marlins will beat the Cubs, you want to only recover your original $100 if they don't, but you want to win the same amount in the WS regardless of whether the Marlins win: for each $100, you can win $6,440 if the Marlins win the pennant, whether they take the WS or not. Requires $160 on the Cubs hedge, $13,400 on the WS hedge.
hedge at 200-1: you think the Marlins will beat the Cubs, you want to only recover your original $100 if they don't, and you want to favor the Marlins in the WS - you'll need to make a $160 Cubs hedge bet, then: you'll hedge the AL at -200 - different amts shown below:
a. Hedge $1,050 ... this gives you a Bonus Bet to win $18,790 (you're recovering the $100 prop bet and the $160 covering hedge bet on the Cubbies)
b. Hedge $3,000 ... win $16,840 on Marlins or $1,500 on AL
c. Hedge $5,000 ... win $14,840 on Marlins or $2,240 on AL
d. Hedge $7,000 ... win $12,840 on Marlins or $3,240 on AL
e. Hedge $9,000 ... win $10,840 on Marlins or $4,240 on AL
f. Hedge $11,000 ... win $8,840 on Marlins or $5,240 on AL
g. Hedge $13,400 ... win $6,440 on Marlins or $6,440 on AL
hedge at 200-1: you think the Marlins will beat the Cubs, you want to only recover your original $100 if they don't, and you want to favor the AL in the WS - you'll need to make a $160 Cubs hedge bet, then :
a. Hedge $15,000 ... win $4,840 on Marlins or $7,240 on AL
b. Hedge $17,000 ... win $2,840 on Marlins or $8,240 on AL
c. Hedge $19,000 ... win $840 on Marlins or $9,240 on AL
d. Hedge $19,840 ... win $0 on Marlins or $9,660 on AL
[This message was edited by Jazz on October 06, 2003 at 07:44 AM.]
[This message was edited by Jazz on October 06, 2003 at 07:47 AM.]
[This message was edited by Jazz on October 06, 2003 at 08:06 AM.]
[This message was edited by Jazz on October 06, 2003 at 09:05 AM.]
