GREAT World Series Future Value

[D2bets]

Anahiem wasn't a 'smart play' at this time last year either because they had never won anything before.

Thanks for the feedbal though guys. I still disagree with (almost) all of you.

Then again, you guys have a much better chance of being "right" in any case because while I think 50-1 is great value I still think the Cubs chances to win it all are in the 4-6% range

 

[Jazz]

In case some haven't noticed, one only has to think that the Cubs have a decent shot to make the playoffs here to make money. If asked, do I think the Cubs win the WS? No. If asked, do I think they can get to the playoffs? Yes. And if they do? I hedge against a 50-1 payoff in each playoff series, taking the favorite each time if not the Cubs.

To me, the beauty of this wager is that I don't think the Cubs will win the WS - it's the VALUE in the 50-1 shot that will allow profitable hedging IF the Cubs can get to the playoffs. Hedge to just cover your wager - fine. Hedge to profit no matter what - fine. Point is, I agree with D2 here, that's just too much value to pass up.

 

[D2bets]

Danny, by the way what book has the Cubs +175 to win the division. Only book I could even find with odds is Olympic who is offering +130. Might make another play at +175. Thanks.

 

[Jazz]

One other thing - if the Cubs cannot win their division, there's always the wild-card back-door possibility, in which case the strategy is the same no matter how they entered the playoffs. Likely? Probably not - but still a sweetener for me.

Think Rally Cubbie

 

[ChuckSims]

What are the odds now, 100-1? Cubs making the Dodgers look like world series bound.

 

[blueedwards]

d2 & jazz, i understand the strategy in getting long odds, then hedging if they make the playoffs. my problem with this wager is that the cubs making the playoffs is a bad bet. i do not believe they have a shot at the wild card. the phils and marlins will battle that out. they have a better shot at the division but, they have to beat the cards and astros...i just don't see it.

no offense...too much for prior, wood and a shaky bullpen to overcome.

 

[SteveMcCroskey]

Am I sniffing glue or do the Marlins have a good shot? Wait a minute. I am sniffing glue AND the Marlins have a great shot.

 

[D2bets]

Nobody still thinks there is value in this? Or should I say, woud be, BG is now down to 28-1, rather different bet from 50-1. 28-1 is a sharp line.

I wanted to get back to that projection that the Cubs would be +200 series vs. Braves. I still can't fathom how that could be. Game by game, tell me where Atlanta has the starting pitching edge.
Prior/Ortiz
Wood/Maddux
Zambrano/Hampton
Clement/Ramirez
I'll tell you...NONE of them! Some will say Ortiz because he has the better record. Well, no, Prior is the better pitcher, but yeah the Braves are still the better team with him on the mound, but not by much. I'd say:
at Atlanta Ortiz -140...if that
Wood is better than Maddux these days. Both are inconsistent but when Wood gets hit its one hit when Maddux is off he gets continuously pounded. Still, on the right slight team edge to Atlanta
at Atlanta Maddux -130...if that
Zambrano is the possible third ace here. Arguably he's the #2. 5HR allowed in 24 games, are you kidding me? ERA almost 3, has improved throughou the year. Hampton? He's pretty decent these days. Nt overpowering but having a better year. Cubs hit lefties better. Still, Zambrano is the better pitcher at home, slight edge Cubs
Cubs -120...
Clement vs. Ramirez. Horacio is starting to get figured out. Cubs hit lefties better. Clement doesn't have as much stamina, but he can dominate when he's on. Slight Cubs pitching but overall game around pkem
Cubs -110
Game 5 rematch similar to Game 1
Ortiz -140
So to sum it up:
Braves -140
Braves -130
Cubs -120
Cubs -110
Braves -140
I'd say it adds up to around Cubs +120 to +125/Braves -125 to -130
If you think I'm wrong, tell me which matchu and why. This series WOULD BE mch closer on paper than peopel think. And if it materializes that means the Cubs got the job done in a tough race.

I'd say if the Cubs won they've be even lower, maybe +115 vs. SF. World Series who knows, but no more than -+140 or so.

+125
+115
+140
is +1060, lets's say +1100

Cubs win division/wild card is no more than +150 TOPS.

+1100
+150
is 29-1.
50-1=VALUE (if ya could find it).

 

[ChuckSims]

D2bets, That sure is a biased report. The Cubs "no more than +140" in the WS statement is hilarious. You're saying the NYY would be no more than -160 fav in the WS with home field advantage vs. the Cubs? Thats ridiculous. The NYY were -220 road series fav over Arizona in 2001. You are also assuming the Cubs will have their pitching rotation set-up for the playoffs. Highly doubtful since it is a good bet the Cubs won't know if they are in until the last game of the year. I like the Cards to win the div. but if the Cubs do win the Central they will get destroyed by the Braves.

 

[blueedwards]

if the cubs (who i still say won't make the playoffs) get the braves in the first round, and its braves -125 for the series...i am going to get a home equity line and have the balance wired straight to pinnacle.

 

[DickyW]

Not so fast Blue! We all know what happens to the Brave bats when the playoffs roll around. Braves are probably the biggest bunch of under achievers in baseball history.

 

[Jazz]

I was/am a believer, D2, as you know - now, you know I'll probably hedge the s-h-i-t out of this one should they get in the playoffs, but I'm wit ya

 

[blueedwards]

dicky...true but, this year the bats are rockin' like never before. i don't think atlanta wins the world series but, i think they would smoke the cubs. one thing d2 failed to include is a breakdown of the bullpens. i feel that the main reason the cubs will not win their division is the bullpen...just watch.

if the cubs should make it and square off with the braves...i'll take king, holmes & smoltz over farnsworth, alfonseca & borowski any day of the week and twice on sunday.

 

[Jazz]

Blue - you may be correct about the bullpen - however, that 50-1 price was simply too much value to ignore. Understand I'm not saying the Cubs definitely will make the playoffs - I'm saying the value was too great to pass up. I might assume if the odds had been 500-1 you'd have been all over it - the question would be what would it had to have been for you to bite? Bullpen-wise, the key for the Cubs is to get those starting pitchers to have quality outings so the bullpen doesn't have to get used as much, as well as for Sammy and the rest to get some runs.

 

[blueedwards]

jazz, good point. i guess for me, the odds would have to have been high enough for me to be able to bet against them in september and through each round of the playoffs and still break even should they win the world series. i don't know what that number is but i think its higher than 50-1.

 

[ChuckSims]

Blue, LOL! I'm with you. If the the Braves are -125 vs. the Cubs I am heading to the bank to get the green stuff. The Braves hitting is phenominal this year. Nothing even comes close to previous Braves teams in the past.

 

[D2bets]

Maybe not -125 but I'd say -135 or -140. Again, I said please tell me where I am wrong game-by game. In which one of those games will the Braves be more than -140/-150 tops? Which matchup? Series price is a function of the individual game prices.

As for the bullpen, not sure I agree. The only edge, albeit a big one, is Smoltz over Borowski (though Borowski has done a pretty good job). I'll take the remainder of the Cubs pen over Atlanta's. The rest of that pen is a wekaness for Atlanta. Come on. That's why they went out to get Mercker. They miss Remlinger. I'll take Farnsworth, Remlinger, Guthrie, Veres over Hodges, Kingm Gryboski, Holmes. Just look at the numbers. King is the only one under 4 ERA. Smoltz may be the difference but in a 5 games series Borowski can save 3 games. He's something like 21/25 this year so it's not like he gets lit up. The Braves edge is the lineup. But this Cubs lineup is markedly different since getting Lofton and Ramirez. Lofton just lives for this time of year, he is a serious sparkplug and still one of the best leadoff hitters in the NL.

Just look at the matchups, Braves don't have the edge you think they do. They are the better team, but not by that much. W-L records are thrown out the window come playoff time.

 

[blueedwards]

d2, good luck with your bet.

 

[D2bets]

Blue, I hope you don't covet your left foot.

With the Cubs NOT to win WS at -1010 I could fully scalp for a +360 profit if I wanted to. Therefore, I was getting the Cubs to win div or WC at +360 with extra options at a time when you were lucky to find +150 to win the div. Like I said, that was a GREAT VALUE. I guess I just didn't expain the play well enough to get the point across. Of course I'm not going to fully scalp (as that would be prohibitively expensive anyway), but I can hedge off the risk and sit on the bet for free shot at 40-1 (40-0 I suppose) on a play that is at best paying +900 with risk.

Then again I could let it all ride because I really do think NEXT YEAR IS HERE.

 

[ChuckSims]

D2bets, you may want to hedge it all on Atl to beat the Cubs. Easiest money you'll ever make.