Did you ever notice that when these lower tier teams like UNLV can come into a game with an element of surprise as DD dogs they tend to do well. But when they start getting too respected by the oddsmakers with the lines against decent programs they tend to fold like a wet napkin? Iowa State was kind of in that same boat today. They have been DD dogs to Iowa for the last few years, but when they started getting too respected with the line, Iowa took it to them and the Clones folded up their tents early. I think the biggest reason for this happening is because it gets the favored team's full attention when it's a TD or under spread and that they know they can't take it's opponent lightly. We'll see what happens tonight. But this sure feels like one of those types of games.
hno:Trent...I'm still trying to get a feel for many of these teams. There's a few out there that are running the ball much better than I expected. Like Missouri. And there are some that have been great running teams in the past who so far hasn't showed me much. Like Oregon (except for Masoli), La Tech, Penn State to name a few. I'll probably just play on the few teams I feel I can trust next week and see how it goes. Great day for you today..Way to bring it back...I should have jumped on Michigan. Although that game was a tight fit for the running dogs..if i can make one suggestion...do what you do best!!
how many "running dogs" did you play this week??
i can tell you the answer, but you already know it...
go back to the basics and what's made you successful and you'll be just fine...
Tough season to cap thus far, I personally had to attack my 4 angles more so this week knowing this. Lines in my opinion have been getting sharper over the years, what I mean by this is whoever makes these lines see the angles that specifically target handicappers such as ourselves. Bottom line we need to stay ahead of the curve and go a step further. Maybe we can chat soon so you can tell me what you think
VOR...I do agree and think the lines are tighter this year. It's no excuse for how bad I've done in the first two weeks. But it is a fact. I noticed from studying all these teams this summer that there are many more weaknesses or question marks on the majority of the teams than we normally see, and with the exception of Florida and maybe USC, there really were no obvious standout teams in their conferences. So I have a feeling that when we get about a month or so into the season I'll have to rely almost strictly on numbers and stats. Something I wouldn't normally do. This year already reminds me of 2007. Another difficult year for capping games. '09 has already been a different season because the favorites haven't covered in most of the games. I believe they were something like 19-23 this past week. So the "take the favorites early" myth has already been destroyed. And when the dogs start covering, the majority of the betting public usually loses. But the computer system nerds and contriarians have a tendency to do well when this happens. We'll see if this trend continues.
Luckily I haven't played many games in these first two weeks. So I have a chance to slowly bring it back with a couple winning weeks. I won't be playing many games this week either. There's only a handful of teams out there that I trust right now. And the rest of them I don't know about because they've played so damn many of these FCS teams. And I can tell nothing from these kinds of games and I don't even use them in my stats. I won't really get a good feel for everybody until we get about 4 weeks into the season. That's when my stat charts start coming out to compare teams side by side...GL this week.
Yeah, this game was on my dog watch list. The one thing that scared me off a little was CM's inabilty to run the ball without Sneed. I thought it would just be LeFevour running for his life. But like we said this summer, MSU had a certain other team on their minds this past week. Plus a rookie QB. The three games I regret that I didn't take were CM, Michigan and Houston. Especially since OSU was on the front cover of Sports Illustated this past week. The jinx was on. And OSU has always been kind of a squirrely team when it comes to high expectations. They're like a bad stepchild, they almost always disappoint you when you want them to do well.
