Southern Miss (-14) over UCF **** (Best Bet)
I bought the half point here with this being a BB bet. I believe Southern Miss has the potetnial to be a BCS busting team this year. They definitely have the offense for it. But do you remember the good defensive teams that SM used to have? There are still plenty of these good defensive players left over from the Jeff Bower era. And it makes this team very strong on both sides of the ball. In the last month of 2008 this group really came together in allowing just 9 points a game. And they beat this same UCF team 17-6 on their home field. I see a huge improvement from SM this year in the second year of Fedora's system. And although they have a decent defense, I still see the same problems this year with UCF's offense that they've had last season. A lack of playmakers. But what is going to hurt this team worse than anything is the amount of studs they lost in their secondary. They lost a total of 156 career starts who combined for 50 int's. So this is a HUGE loss considering who they have to go on the road and play in this first conference game. UCF had problems as it was even last season with all of these players trying to stop the high octane offenses in their conference. They lost to Tulsa by 30 and UTEP by 45 on the road. And SM could be even deadlier on offense this year than those two teams. I don't know for sure if SM WR DeAndre Brown is going to play after sitting out last week's game. But something tells me he could. It probably won't matter, but if he's in the game there is none of these rookie UCF backs that are going to be able to cover him. On the other side of the ball UCF had problemes moving the ball against FCS team Samford. And very nearly lost that game. They scored only 6 points at home on this SM defense last year. They'll probably have the same problems this year. I don't see this UCF team as being better on either side of the ball in this game. Taking SM big.
Oregon (-12) over Purdue **** (Best Bet)
I love playing on teams when things look the bleakest for them. And this is definitely the case this week for Oregon. The more embarassed this team got on national television along with the ugly after game antics that went on, the better I felt about Oregon the next week. Combine that with the big Purdue win and we have a good set up here. What was overlooked in the Boilermakers big win was the 31 points they surrendered to a MAC team. Let's see what this new coaching staff does with this defense when they hit the road and travel to a tough venue like Autzen. They also have to deal with the Oregon speed on offense going from natural grass to the fast turf. The Ducks no longer have Blount. But they do have two speedy RB's that are more capable of being the long breakaway threats. After being pushed around on offense last week I look for a much better performance out of this group. Let's not overlook this about Oregon, they looked bad on offense, but on defense they held Boise to just 19 points. The lowest point production from Boise at home as far as my records go back in the last 10 years or more. I think they'll bring it on defense here and shut Purdue and this first year offensive system down. This is another great situational play. And I think you'll see that it is a much different situation playing on the road on the Blue Turf at night against a winning program and going back home playing in Autzen against a losing program with a new HC. I smell a blowout from a team who is as "mad as hell and not taking it anymore."