According to the main odds board here the Notre Dame line opened at 3. This is a game that I'll just be watching and not picking a side because both Notre Dame and Michigan are on my watch list this season for possible ATS beaters. I did play the total on this game for just a half a unit. I think it goes over the 48.
La Tech (+7.5) over Navy ***
From a line perspective this is a great spot for La Tech, because if these two teams had played last week I don't think we would have seen this big of a line. But LT's decisive loss to Auburn and Navy close loss to OSU really helps here. Last week LT just got outmuscled and worn down by a more physical Auburn team. But I believe the opposite exists this weekend with La Tech being the more physical team on both lines. Navy utilized their speed to stop a conservative OSU offensive scheme. But La Tech wil present a whole new set of problems for Navy. LT has worked hard on their pass game in the offseason. And it paid off in the first half against Auburn with Ross Jenkins completing his first 10 passes in a row! The game was pretty much even at the half with Auburn owning a 13-10 lead. But the 90 yard drive by LT at the end of the half was very encouraging to me considering how much trouble that they had moving the ball at times last year. This is a much different and improved team this year under their excellent young coach Dooley. Auburn went to the man to man defense and pretty much shut down LT's passing game in the second half. But Navy doesn't have the kind of players on defense where they can go man on man on this offense. Not with excellent skill players like WR Livas to cover. I'm not saying Navy isn't going to move the ball themselves. They'll score their points here. But I believe that LT can match this team score for score with a much more balanced attack. Remember, LT also had a great rushing attack last year. And has everybody back. Navy doesn't have everybody back. And has only 4 returning starters on offense from a team who had an identical record to LT and similar schedule. This is also a bigtime letdown spot for Navy after their big game at the Shoe. On top of that, this is a sandwich game with Pitt on board next week. A very very good spot for a cover and probable upset for La Tech. Taking the Bulldogs.
From a line perspective this is a great spot for La Tech, because if these two teams had played last week I don't think we would have seen this big of a line. But LT's decisive loss to Auburn and Navy close loss to OSU really helps here. Last week LT just got outmuscled and worn down by a more physical Auburn team. But I believe the opposite exists this weekend with La Tech being the more physical team on both lines. Navy utilized their speed to stop a conservative OSU offensive scheme. But La Tech wil present a whole new set of problems for Navy. LT has worked hard on their pass game in the offseason. And it paid off in the first half against Auburn with Ross Jenkins completing his first 10 passes in a row! The game was pretty much even at the half with Auburn owning a 13-10 lead. But the 90 yard drive by LT at the end of the half was very encouraging to me considering how much trouble that they had moving the ball at times last year. This is a much different and improved team this year under their excellent young coach Dooley. Auburn went to the man to man defense and pretty much shut down LT's passing game in the second half. But Navy doesn't have the kind of players on defense where they can go man on man on this offense. Not with excellent skill players like WR Livas to cover. I'm not saying Navy isn't going to move the ball themselves. They'll score their points here. But I believe that LT can match this team score for score with a much more balanced attack. Remember, LT also had a great rushing attack last year. And has everybody back. Navy doesn't have everybody back. And has only 4 returning starters on offense from a team who had an identical record to LT and similar schedule. This is also a bigtime letdown spot for Navy after their big game at the Shoe. On top of that, this is a sandwich game with Pitt on board next week. A very very good spot for a cover and probable upset for La Tech. Taking the Bulldogs.
Tulane (+18.5) over BYU **
I've gone back and forth with this game this week. So this is a small play for me. My initial thoughts are BYU big. But this is about as good of a situational spot for Tulane as you can get. BYU coming off a HUGE emotional win over OU as +22 point dogs, then having to go on the road again the next week as -18 point favorites. On top of that this is a sandwich game for BYU between OU and Florida State. And on the other end Tulane will be in their comfort zone in the dome for the second straight week. So the stars line up pretty well for Tulane here. After watching thier game with Tulsa last week I came away thinking that Tulane could have scored more points. Because of offensive miscues they left a couple potential TD's and a FG off the board, or else they might have covered that 14 point line. I look for this team to be much sharper in this second week when most teams improve the most. And Tulane looks like they are more eligible to improve than BYU. Plus BYU doesn't have as high of an octane offense that Tulsa threw at them. So it makes almost 3 TD's look a little better here. A chancy play against a possible BCS buster. But I see this scenerio several times a year. And the dog comes out covering in most of these types of sitautional spots..
I've gone back and forth with this game this week. So this is a small play for me. My initial thoughts are BYU big. But this is about as good of a situational spot for Tulane as you can get. BYU coming off a HUGE emotional win over OU as +22 point dogs, then having to go on the road again the next week as -18 point favorites. On top of that this is a sandwich game for BYU between OU and Florida State. And on the other end Tulane will be in their comfort zone in the dome for the second straight week. So the stars line up pretty well for Tulane here. After watching thier game with Tulsa last week I came away thinking that Tulane could have scored more points. Because of offensive miscues they left a couple potential TD's and a FG off the board, or else they might have covered that 14 point line. I look for this team to be much sharper in this second week when most teams improve the most. And Tulane looks like they are more eligible to improve than BYU. Plus BYU doesn't have as high of an octane offense that Tulsa threw at them. So it makes almost 3 TD's look a little better here. A chancy play against a possible BCS buster. But I see this scenerio several times a year. And the dog comes out covering in most of these types of sitautional spots..
byu played in a dome last week too, i just dont see a weak ass team like tulane being able to put up points against this BYU defense, the players at BYU are extremely disciplined and they all feed off of each others emotions, they all know they have a shot to run the table and make some noise as a BCS buster this year, i dont see how they over look any games this year...i just wouldnt feel comfortable taking Tulane even gettin 3 tds
Teams overlook other teams the next week after big games all the time. Bama overlooked this same Tulane team last season after their big win over Clemson. Tulane almost beat Bama at bama last year. Tulane also almost knocked off East carolina last season after ECU had just beat Va Tech and West va. Tulane also easily covered the spread against national champs LSU in 2007 just after LSU had big emotional game with South Carolina. I'm just using Tulane as an example. It happens all the time around the country. Last season USC got knocked off the next week at Oregon State after easily defeating Ohio State the week before. And in my opinion USC was much better than Oregon State. GL
Southern Miss (-14) over UCF **** (Best Bet)
I bought the half point here with this being a BB bet. I believe Southern Miss has the potetnial to be a BCS busting team this year. They definitely have the offense for it. But do you remember the good defensive teams that SM used to have? There are still plenty of these good defensive players left over from the Jeff Bower era. And it makes this team very strong on both sides of the ball. In the last month of 2008 this group really came together in allowing just 9 points a game. And they beat this same UCF team 17-6 on their home field. I see a huge improvement from SM this year in the second year of Fedora's system. And although they have a decent defense, I still see the same problems this year with UCF's offense that they've had last season. A lack of playmakers. But what is going to hurt this team worse than anything is the amount of studs they lost in their secondary. They lost a total of 156 career starts who combined for 50 int's. So this is a HUGE loss considering who they have to go on the road and play in this first conference game. UCF had problems as it was even last season with all of these players trying to stop the high octane offenses in their conference. They lost to Tulsa by 30 and UTEP by 45 on the road. And SM could be even deadlier on offense this year than those two teams. I don't know for sure if SM WR DeAndre Brown is going to play after sitting out last week's game. But something tells me he could. It probably won't matter, but if he's in the game there is none of these rookie UCF backs that are going to be able to cover him. On the other side of the ball UCF had problemes moving the ball against FCS team Samford. And very nearly lost that game. They scored only 6 points at home on this SM defense last year. They'll probably have the same problems this year. I don't see this UCF team as being better on either side of the ball in this game. Taking SM big.
Oregon (-12) over Purdue **** (Best Bet)
I love playing on teams when things look the bleakest for them. And this is definitely the case this week for Oregon. The more embarassed this team got on national television along with the ugly after game antics that went on, the better I felt about Oregon the next week. Combine that with the big Purdue win and we have a good set up here. What was overlooked in the Boilermakers big win was the 31 points they surrendered to a MAC team. Let's see what this new coaching staff does with this defense when they hit the road and travel to a tough venue like Autzen. They also have to deal with the Oregon speed on offense going from natural grass to the fast turf. The Ducks no longer have Blount. But they do have two speedy RB's that are more capable of being the long breakaway threats. After being pushed around on offense last week I look for a much better performance out of this group. Let's not overlook this about Oregon, they looked bad on offense, but on defense they held Boise to just 19 points. The lowest point production from Boise at home as far as my records go back in the last 10 years or more. I think they'll bring it on defense here and shut Purdue and this first year offensive system down. This is another great situational play. And I think you'll see that it is a much different situation playing on the road on the Blue Turf at night against a winning program and going back home playing in Autzen against a losing program with a new HC. I smell a blowout from a team who is as "mad as hell and not taking it anymore."
I bought the half point here with this being a BB bet. I believe Southern Miss has the potetnial to be a BCS busting team this year. They definitely have the offense for it. But do you remember the good defensive teams that SM used to have? There are still plenty of these good defensive players left over from the Jeff Bower era. And it makes this team very strong on both sides of the ball. In the last month of 2008 this group really came together in allowing just 9 points a game. And they beat this same UCF team 17-6 on their home field. I see a huge improvement from SM this year in the second year of Fedora's system. And although they have a decent defense, I still see the same problems this year with UCF's offense that they've had last season. A lack of playmakers. But what is going to hurt this team worse than anything is the amount of studs they lost in their secondary. They lost a total of 156 career starts who combined for 50 int's. So this is a HUGE loss considering who they have to go on the road and play in this first conference game. UCF had problems as it was even last season with all of these players trying to stop the high octane offenses in their conference. They lost to Tulsa by 30 and UTEP by 45 on the road. And SM could be even deadlier on offense this year than those two teams. I don't know for sure if SM WR DeAndre Brown is going to play after sitting out last week's game. But something tells me he could. It probably won't matter, but if he's in the game there is none of these rookie UCF backs that are going to be able to cover him. On the other side of the ball UCF had problemes moving the ball against FCS team Samford. And very nearly lost that game. They scored only 6 points at home on this SM defense last year. They'll probably have the same problems this year. I don't see this UCF team as being better on either side of the ball in this game. Taking SM big.
Oregon (-12) over Purdue **** (Best Bet)
I love playing on teams when things look the bleakest for them. And this is definitely the case this week for Oregon. The more embarassed this team got on national television along with the ugly after game antics that went on, the better I felt about Oregon the next week. Combine that with the big Purdue win and we have a good set up here. What was overlooked in the Boilermakers big win was the 31 points they surrendered to a MAC team. Let's see what this new coaching staff does with this defense when they hit the road and travel to a tough venue like Autzen. They also have to deal with the Oregon speed on offense going from natural grass to the fast turf. The Ducks no longer have Blount. But they do have two speedy RB's that are more capable of being the long breakaway threats. After being pushed around on offense last week I look for a much better performance out of this group. Let's not overlook this about Oregon, they looked bad on offense, but on defense they held Boise to just 19 points. The lowest point production from Boise at home as far as my records go back in the last 10 years or more. I think they'll bring it on defense here and shut Purdue and this first year offensive system down. This is another great situational play. And I think you'll see that it is a much different situation playing on the road on the Blue Turf at night against a winning program and going back home playing in Autzen against a losing program with a new HC. I smell a blowout from a team who is as "mad as hell and not taking it anymore."
Whats up Sooner?
I dont think anyone expected what occurred with your team last week.
Joe Public got hammered last week with a couple of exceptions -I like the Ducks pick and wish you well on your total card.I live about 40 mins from West Point so Im going to go with the Knights and the new triple option Offense-I also like the Trojans Saturday night-
Thats it for now.
Take care bro-
I dont think anyone expected what occurred with your team last week.
Joe Public got hammered last week with a couple of exceptions -I like the Ducks pick and wish you well on your total card.I live about 40 mins from West Point so Im going to go with the Knights and the new triple option Offense-I also like the Trojans Saturday night-
Thats it for now.
Take care bro-
Fellas..I have a slight lean to Colorado tonight. But it is impossible to handicap this game based on the Buffs performance last week. So I'm going to lay off. I could probably flip a coin and do better...I do have a couple strong leans that I may end up playing tonight or tomorrow. San Jose +14..New QB for Utah going on the road for the first time against a better Dick Tomey defense than what they showed last week vs USC. And absolutely nobody in any forum is giving New Mexico a chance to cover against Tulsa. For that reason alone I kind of like the Lobos. This will also be the home debut for their new coach. So we could get some pretty spirited play from NM in this game...KC...I'm also taking a long look at your Army team. I noticed they are even starting to become the dogs in a few books. BOL to everybody tonight and tomorrow :toast:
