GoSooners Plays For Week 2

[linebets]

The reason you state here is the very reasons why my play is small on this game. I do think that for a team like Texas Tech it's much easier to replace your star QB and receiver than it is for a non-bcs team like Rice. And I agree that Rice will get better when or if HC Baliff decides on a starting QB. I've never liked the 2 QB rotation. I say they only scored 24 because there wasn't many games last season where they weren't in the 40's or 50's or higher. TT was only able to beat ND by 25. But it was QB Potts first game as a starter. I look for him to be a little sharper in this game. Plus TT has gotten off to slow starts like this before. They really didn't look very good in their first game last season against Eastern Washington. But I think they'll get up more for Rice. And Leach will want his team hitting on all cylinders when they face Texas. But the backdoor cover is always possible with this big of a number. I don't really like the over here. When I see two inexperienced QB's playing in a game I start thinking unders. Especially when the total is in the 60's.

There will be a lot of passing in this game and very little running. I cant stand to bet TT for anything, never know when leach will decided to run up the score or slow down. Did they really only carry the ball for 11 times last game? I thought leach wanted to be more well rounded, not just a passing team. Maybe he was really just trying to get Potts into the grove with his receivers. Either way so far Potts hasn't impressed me and without the sure hands of crabtree, i guess he will have to try and find his own favorite receiver. If this game was not at tortilla tech i would easily say rice could cover it, but it always worries me any time ANY team goes into lubbock... gl with the bet.

Ive been staring at this Syracuse line trying to think of reasons as to why penn state covers. I think Paulus will become a great qb for them. He seemed to have great composure while being rushed and making pretty good decisions. Any views on this game?

Also i wanted to ask your take on the OSU USC game as well, i see way to many people going all over USC... there just seems to be something about this game that doesnt seem right.

 

[GoSooners]

See, i dont think they are THAT good this year. I think they are living off of all hype from previous years. They are a totally different team this year than years past. It takes a VERY special freshman QB to go undefeated, and I don't think USC can do that

True freshman Michael Vick made it to the title game. Mainly because he played in a weak conference. USC basically only has two games to win this year after OSU. Cal and Notre Dame. If they can beat OSU at the shoe early in the season, I think they can beat both of these teams. We'll see if they are the real deal after this game. So far they haven't done anything to make me think different. At any rate, I don't completely rule a team out if they have a freshman QB with a good supporting cast like Barkely has.
We won't really know how good the kid is until he's thrown into the fire with OSU defenders in his face. This is a big game. It will tell us a lot about both teams. That's why I'm just going to sit back and watch.

 

[GoSooners]

There will be a lot of passing in this game and very little running. I cant stand to bet TT for anything, never know when leach will decided to run up the score or slow down. Did they really only carry the ball for 11 times last game? I thought leach wanted to be more well rounded, not just a passing team. Maybe he was really just trying to get Potts into the grove with his receivers. Either way so far Potts hasn't impressed me and without the sure hands of crabtree, i guess he will have to try and find his own favorite receiver. If this game was not at tortilla tech i would easily say rice could cover it, but it always worries me any time ANY team goes into lubbock... gl with the bet.

Ive been staring at this Syracuse line trying to think of reasons as to why penn state covers. I think Paulus will become a great qb for them. He seemed to have great composure while being rushed and making pretty good decisions. Any views on this game?

Also i wanted to ask your take on the OSU USC game as well, i see way to many people going all over USC... there just seems to be something about this game that doesnt seem right.

I'm betting Leach won't have the same gameplan as he had against North Dakota. I would imagine he's watching game film and seeing UAB reeling off big chunks of yards on the ground on Rice and probably thinks he can do the same with his RB's..I'll be a little surprised if he don't get them more involved in this game. My bet is he was just trying to give his QB Potts as many reps as possible passing the ball to get his timing down with his receivers. You really can't judge this kid on one start. Any QB is going to make mistakes in his first game. Even Harrell was prone to making a few mistakes early in the season. I think the bigger question is how much Rice will improve between their first and second game. They'll have to show more than they showed last week. I promise you that TT is miles better than UAB. Especially at home.

 

[fivestarjake]

gl this week sooners. shame what happened to bradford. as far as smu/uab...i believe uab is good BUT smu is stronger than rice this year imo. so when i see smu getting double the points rice got i see value. smu has the offense firepower to trade scores with uab. plus as you stated this is their 2nd year in jones systems. i had this uab -3 preseason and i feel public will overvalue blazer win vs a weaker rice team.

 

[fivestarjake]

another tidbit on texas tech is their offensive line is HUGE. potts should get plenty of time to look downfield.

 

[GoSooners]

gl this week sooners. shame what happened to bradford. as far as smu/uab...i believe uab is good BUT smu is stronger than rice this year imo. so when i see smu getting double the points rice got i see value. smu has the offense firepower to trade scores with uab. plus as you stated this is their 2nd year in jones systems. i had this uab -3 preseason and i feel public will overvalue blazer win vs a weaker rice team.

I'm still considering SMU pretty hard in this spot. The only thing that concerns me is SMU's defense. Or lack of it. And starting 4 sophomores on the O-Line. But SMU had a brutal second half of the season schedule last year. It should have made them a better team for it coming into this game. They are one of the most eligible teams to improve than any team in the country. Plus many don't know how complicated June Jones offensive system can be. But once these players start getting it down, they can be deadly with the vertical passing game. Levi Mitchell should have much less mistake prone second season. This one is on my radar. I'm just curious to see how high the line goes with everybody and their ugly sister on UAB.

 

[midman2161]

I'm no fan of road chalk but maybe you can give me a take on the TCU-UVa game.. I cant see any circumstances where TCU does not cover the 12 points here. We are talking about a team who has the talent to finish as a legitimate top 10 team this year, with consistently one of the best defenses in college football. Hughes is just a monster.
Meanwhile, UVa just lost to WILLIAM AND MARY... at home. That is pathetic. They are shuffling 3 ineffective QBs. I just cant see any reason NOT to take TCU here.. they have won their last 4 openers by an average of over 17 points per contest

 

[AlwaysKeen]

I feel honored to be mentioned in such an awesome thread (as I currently watch two games from last week at once...lol)

thanks guys...(<)<

 

[nd2000]

I'm no fan of road chalk but maybe you can give me a take on the TCU-UVa game.. I cant see any circumstances where TCU does not cover the 12 points here. We are talking about a team who has the talent to finish as a legitimate top 10 team this year, with consistently one of the best defenses in college football. Hughes is just a monster.
Meanwhile, UVa just lost to WILLIAM AND MARY... at home. That is pathetic. They are shuffling 3 ineffective QBs. I just cant see any reason NOT to take TCU here.. they have won their last 4 openers by an average of over 17 points per contest

TCU is not a top 10 team this year in my opinion. They did lose quite a bit of talent from last season. I would not judge UVA after one game either. Last year, it looked like UVA was going to be bloody awful after a few games and then they pulled a bunch of surprises in the underdog role as the season progressed. I could see something similar happening here. Also keep in mind, that the preseason line on this game was TCU -6, so while all your statements about UVA are well and good, everyone else is thinking the same thing and it cost you about 5 critical points in line value.

 

[fivestarjake]

TCU is not a top 10 team this year in my opinion. They did lose quite a bit of talent from last season. I would not judge UVA after one game either. Last year, it looked like UVA was going to be bloody awful after a few games and then they pulled a bunch of surprises in the underdog role as the season progressed. I could see something similar happening here. Also keep in mind, that the preseason line on this game was TCU -6, so while all your statements about UVA are well and good, everyone else is thinking the same thing and it cost you about 5 critical points in line value.

lets not forget virginia does have a game under its belt while this is TCU'S opener.

 

[midman2161]

lets not forget virginia does have a game under its belt while this is TCU'S opener.

While I was thinking the same, I am not sure that this is an advantage for UVA? Plenty of teams come out on fire their first game, while UVa's confidence might be shot after dropping a game to Bill and Mary's.. now they have to play a ranked FCS team?

 

[russ1945]

TCU is not a top 10 team this year in my opinion. They did lose quite a bit of talent from last season. I would not judge UVA after one game either. Last year, it looked like UVA was going to be bloody awful after a few games and then they pulled a bunch of surprises in the underdog role as the season progressed. I could see something similar happening here. Also keep in mind, that the preseason line on this game was TCU -6, so while all your statements about UVA are well and good, everyone else is thinking the same thing and it cost you about 5 critical points in line value.

Just something to consider. I really think TCU is a reload team but because they have not reached the stature of some of the more elite teams they don't get enough credit. These guys mostly played highschool FB in Texas, they work out religiously (they have an ungodly amount of players who Bench over 400 lbs) and they are a highly motivated group who have mentally stayed at their present level and capabilities for quite a while now. Remember the old OC is gone, went to Illinois and you saw how well they did against Mizzou. He was run oriented and probably kept TCU in some closer games than he should have by being too conservative.
They have a veteran QB and I "think" they will open it up a little more.
TCU travels well and has had an extra week to prepare for Virginia so they even have game film to study too. I would not write these guys off and I fully expect them to be the BCS buster this year, if there is one. They are not high profile but this team is a team that no coach in the country wants to play, and there is a damned good reason.

 

[theycallmedug]

The sharps are all over Air Force in this game. Something that Pags was telling me the other day that i didn't know. When Vegas opens a line at 4.5 it is considered a sucker line. If Vegas thinks a team has a good chance to lose a game outright, but needs money on both sides of the line, they will set the line at 4.5. You don't EVER play on a team that has a -4.5 line set on them. it's a sucker bet. Minny opened at -4.5...I learn something new every year.

did Ga Tech open at -4.5?.....

 

[Betallsports]

did Ga Tech open at -4.5?.....

I think it was -4, but I guess it depends on where you are looking.
Pinny opened at -4

 

[YourAllAmerican]

did Ga Tech open at -4.5?.....

SBRodds.com shows the line opening at -4.5, but they don't list at which location that was. Sounds like it varied by a half-point or so from place to place.

They also list Notre Dame as opening at -4.5, as well as previously mentioned Minnesota.

I'm on Notre Dame this week. We'll see how that works out...

 

[theycallmedug]

the notre dame mich game is gonna be a great game...rich rod finally has some talent to run his offense..things are gonna start to change in his favor, while ND look nasty last week against a god awful Nevada pass defense(119th in the country last seaon)....both teams much improved...should be a great game to watch ...if i had to bet it i would take the points and the home team here

 

[GoSooners]

did Ga Tech open at -4.5?.....

I didn't see any team yesterday that opened at 4.5. K-State came close and opened at -5, which I've always thought was a little bit of an unusual opening line too.

 

[stump11]

Scoresandodds.com

I didn't see any team yesterday that opened at 4.5. K-State came close and opened at -5, which I've always thought was a little bit of an unusual opening line too.

Where do you look for your opening lines? I look at scoresandodds.com, and Notre Dame opened at 4.5 on there! Is there a better place to find out lines?

Thanks and good luck this year! Always like reading and following your posts!

 

[GoSooners]

Just something to consider. I really think TCU is a reload team but because they have not reached the stature of some of the more elite teams they don't get enough credit. These guys mostly played highschool FB in Texas, they work out religiously (they have an ungodly amount of players who Bench over 400 lbs) and they are a highly motivated group who have mentally stayed at their present level and capabilities for quite a while now. Remember the old OC is gone, went to Illinois and you saw how well they did against Mizzou. He was run oriented and probably kept TCU in some closer games than he should have by being too conservative.
They have a veteran QB and I "think" they will open it up a little more.
TCU travels well and has had an extra week to prepare for Virginia so they even have game film to study too. I would not write these guys off and I fully expect them to be the BCS buster this year, if there is one. They are not high profile but this team is a team that no coach in the country wants to play, and there is a damned good reason.

I agree with you that TCU could be a BCS buster. The only thing that turns me off about this game is the very thing you like about it. The late start by TCU. You think it can be advantage for the extra week of practice and watching game film and the later start. I think it can be a disadvantage when one team has a game under their belt and the other one doesn't. Different teams react differently to these kinds of situations. Some teams can improve dramatically from the first week to the second when they've had some competetion under their belts. Some not so much. But we really won't know here. But i've always thought it was an iffy bet at best to open your season on the road as double digit favorites. A team like USC or Florida I wouldn't hesitate to pull the trigger on in a case like that. But TCU? Ah...I don't know. My feeling is they'll cover here. But the fact that this is a non-bcs team vs a BCS conference team to open the season puts a little doubt in my head. I do think TCU has the best chance of any team to be a BCS buster. Their road game with a good Clemson team will tell us everything we need to know about the Frogs.

 

[GoSooners]

Where do you look for your opening lines? I look at scoresandodds.com, and Notre Dame opened at 4.5 on there! Is there a better place to find out lines?

Thanks and good luck this year! Always like reading and following your posts!

I've got several different books I go to to see if their lines jibe with each other. I also look at the odds board here at the RX.