GoSooners Plays For Week 2

[sdf]

Texas Tech (-27.5) over Rice **

Maybe not a name your own score game, but pretty close to it. It is pretty obvious by last week's game against UAB that Rice isn't anything close to the same team they were last season when Clement called the signals. They not only lose Clement, they also lose stud WR Dillard. And maybe just as bad lost their OC Herman to Iowa State. So you have new offensive skill players working with a new coordinator. And it showed last week with Rice scoring just 24 points. Much less than their 2008 average. There is also somewhat of a QB controversy. Or maybe less of a controversy than the coach can't really make up his mind between two mediocre QB's. And they both played last week with average at best results against a UAB defense that was much weaker than the TT defense they face this week. Defensively, Rice wasn't very good either in giving up 516 total yards including almost 300 yards rushing and nearly 8 ypc. And we know that TT will throw much more at them offensively. Although a rookie QB, TT QB Potts still had over 400 yards passing last week to something like 10 different receivers. So this is still pretty much the same dangerous TT offense. I look for Leach to play Potts pretty much the whole game to give him the reps and to aim more to cut out mistakes before their big game with Texas next week. Leach will want a dominating performance here to give his offense some confidence going into next week's game. And after their lackluster performance last week against North Dakota in which they scored just 38 points, I expect the Red Raiders to come out swinging here. Rice has been an absolutely terrible ATS team when facing BCS opponents the last few years. And that's been when they had better teams. I promise you if they have a chance, Leach won't call off the dogs here. I look for a blowout. And I think TT has a good enough defense to hold off any backdoor cover.

i'm trying to get excited about this but

a) you claim Rice is missing top QB and top WR...but so is TTech
b) you claim Rice "only" scored 24, but frankly that's not terrible. Especially when you take into consideration Rice got inside the UAB 15 three times in the first half but only got 3 points out of it (INT and blocked FG hurt them)
c) Rice will get better on offense as the season wears on and the QB gets in tune with the WRs
d) TTech could only beat a much lesser NDak team by 25. And it was just 15 points before TTech closed it out with the final 10 points of the game

I agree that TT should improve upon their showing last week, but I also think Rice will as well

this game screams over though. Rice will be unable to stop TTech but they should get theirs as well with their spread attack. I would take the +28.5 when it shows up, but I also know Leach loves to cover the spread so playing the dog has big risks.

gl on the plays. like the ISU play.

 

[fonz5000]

didn't Iowa State cover on some fluke safety at the end of the game last year if I recall correctly

Iowa covered last year on by stepping out of the end zone towards the end of the game so ISU couldn't attempt to block a punt.

It was in Iowa City though.

I mean, I would absolutely love it if Iowa just killed ISU in Ames on Saturday, but I will have to see it first before I'll believe it.

 

[nd2000]

I mean, I would absolutely love it if Iowa just killed ISU in Ames on Saturday, but I will have to see it first before I'll believe it.

Yeah, but this is the fundamental problem that you have to overcome with sports betting. You have to be ahead of the curve. Once you see it, so did everyone else, and the value of that team moving forward is often significantly reduced.

 

[GoSooners]

i'm trying to get excited about this but

a) you claim Rice is missing top QB and top WR...but so is TTech
b) you claim Rice "only" scored 24, but frankly that's not terrible. Especially when you take into consideration Rice got inside the UAB 15 three times in the first half but only got 3 points out of it (INT and blocked FG hurt them)
c) Rice will get better on offense as the season wears on and the QB gets in tune with the WRs
d) TTech could only beat a much lesser NDak team by 25. And it was just 15 points before TTech closed it out with the final 10 points of the game

I agree that TT should improve upon their showing last week, but I also think Rice will as well

this game screams over though. Rice will be unable to stop TTech but they should get theirs as well with their spread attack. I would take the +28.5 when it shows up, but I also know Leach loves to cover the spread so playing the dog has big risks.

gl on the plays. like the ISU play.

The reason you state here is the very reasons why my play is small on this game. I do think that for a team like Texas Tech it's much easier to replace your star QB and receiver than it is for a non-bcs team like Rice. And I agree that Rice will get better when or if HC Baliff decides on a starting QB. I've never liked the 2 QB rotation. I say they only scored 24 because there wasn't many games last season where they weren't in the 40's or 50's or higher. TT was only able to beat ND by 25. But it was QB Potts first game as a starter. I look for him to be a little sharper in this game. Plus TT has gotten off to slow starts like this before. They really didn't look very good in their first game last season against Eastern Washington. But I think they'll get up more for Rice. And Leach will want his team hitting on all cylinders when they face Texas. But the backdoor cover is always possible with this big of a number. I don't really like the over here. When I see two inexperienced QB's playing in a game I start thinking unders. Especially when the total is in the 60's.

 

[fonz5000]

Yeah, but this is the fundamental problem that you have to overcome with sports betting. You have to be ahead of the curve. Once you see it, so did everyone else, and the value of that team moving forward is often significantly reduced.

Touché my friend.

 

[Pincer]

GoSooners:
I feel best about your Wake Forest/Stanford over 44 play.

I try to research as much as I can about the ACC since that's where my Canes play and I know that Wake's defense is not as good as it has been the last 2 years. I don't know that much about Stanford's D, except that it's pretty average.

I think both teams can easily hang up 28 or 27 on each other, sending the total easily over 44.

BOL!

 

[GoSooners]

GoSooners:
I feel best about your Wake Forest/Stanford over 44 play.

I try to research as much as I can about the ACC since that's where my Canes play and I know that Wake's defense is not as good as it has been the last 2 years. I don't know that much about Stanford's D, except that it's pretty average.

I think both teams can easily hang up 28 or 27 on each other, sending the total easily over 44.

BOL!

I also feel better about this play than the others. And I may possibly up it to a 3 star play. Wake has some holes in their defense. And Baylor was able to move the ball pretty well considering they had some new faces on their O-Line themselves. Stanford will be a stiffer test for them with their strong O-Line and running game. Barring a lot of penalties and turnovers we should see a fair amount of scoring here.

 

[GoSooners]

I have a feeling that the doggies could bark a little louder in the second week. A few that I'm looking at:

UNLV (Just 10 starters back for OSU. They are notorious slow starters with a terrible ATS record in the first month of the season. Negative: A 5-7 Non-BCS conference team only catching 7 points against a BCS bowl team)
UCONN (Lack of playmakers by NC could make this a close game. So far NC hasn't been a good road chalk team under Davis. Negative: Better personnel on NC. Lack of bigtime playmakers on UCONN offense)
East Carolina (good defense against new skill players for WV. Better coach, QB for ECU Negative: Revenge factor for WV. Game being played at Morgantown)
Central Michigan (situational play with MSU playing Notre Dame next week. QB mismatch. Negative: CMU no longer has Sneed at RB. Lefevour could find himself running for his life being the only real run threat)
Arkansas St. (situational play with the Huskers going to VT next week. Playing much better defense this week. Negative: Line going down)
Fresno: Hill will have his Dawks headhunting. Flu outbreak at Wisky? Negative: Cross country trip playing a good running team. Line going down)
La Tech (situational play with La tech coming off a loss to a BCS team and Navy having a near upset win at Ohio State. Negative: Flu outbreak this week at La Tech)
SMU (Is UAB really this good? I expect June Jones offense to be better in his second season. Negative: UAB may really be that good)
Air Force (AF is the running dogs. Negative: The excitement factor of Minny opening play in a new stadium. Line going down)
Houston (Possible situational play with OSU coming off a big emotional win. Playing better offense this week vs Houston. Negative: Houston defense gave up 56 to OSU last season)
San Jose (Better SJST defense than what they showed last week when they were outmanned by USC. Negative: SJST's inability to move the ball. Good O-Line of Utah might also wear down SJST defense)
MTSU (MTSU has played non-conference teams tough in the past. Especially at home. The possible better defense getting points at home. Knocked off Maryland last year. Took a good Virginia team to the wire the year before. Beat Memphis on the road 2 years ago. Better coach. Negative: Gave up the big plays last week at Clemson. Memphis has a high octane offense capable of making the big play anywhere on the field. Great RB in Steele. New MTSU offense still getting used to new OC Franklin's spread offense.

 

[jbragg10]

I am liking a lot of those dogs as well.
I really like: UNLV, UConn, East Carolina, LTech

 

[GoSooners]

I am liking a lot of those dogs as well.
I really like: UNLV, UConn, East Carolina, LTech

I think La Tech is the best situational play on the board. Because they play a few BCS teams a year, many people are under the impression that Navy is a BCS type of team when they really aren't. The better lines on both sides of the ball belong to La Tech here. I'm just waiting a few of these out to see if I can get better lines. I'm also keeping a monitor on La Tech's flu outbreak to make sure everybody plays this weekend. All of the teams you mentioned look good and might be good for small plays.

 

[YourAllAmerican]

Air Force looks like they may fit the bill for a Dr. Bob play, which I believe are due to be released in 15 minutes or so. I may drop a little on them while they're still above 3.5 and see if a middle opportunity opens there.

 

[CoachLT]

GoSooners, I am locked and loaded on Iowa St +7 ISU plays their Nutts off against Iowa. A Mini RB Game for me.<< :toast: LT

 

[GoSooners]

GoSooners, I am locked and loaded on Iowa St +7 ISU plays their Nutts off against Iowa. A Mini RB Game for me.<< :toast: LT

Coach...When you say RubberBand, I kind of get the tingles all over. Even a mini RB will do. BOL to us all :toast:

 

[GoSooners]

Air Force looks like they may fit the bill for a Dr. Bob play, which I believe are due to be released in 15 minutes or so. I may drop a little on them while they're still above 3.5 and see if a middle opportunity opens there.

The sharps are all over Air Force in this game. Something that Pags was telling me the other day that i didn't know. When Vegas opens a line at 4.5 it is considered a sucker line. If Vegas thinks a team has a good chance to lose a game outright, but needs money on both sides of the line, they will set the line at 4.5. You don't EVER play on a team that has a -4.5 line set on them. it's a sucker bet. Minny opened at -4.5...I learn something new every year.

 

[bellyputter]

The sharps are all over Air Force in this game. Something that Pags was telling me the other day that i didn't know. When Vegas opens a line at 4.5 it is considered a sucker line. If Vegas thinks a team has a good chance to lose a game outright, but needs money on both sides of the line, they will set the line at 4.5. You don't EVER play on a team that has a -4.5 line set on them. it's a sucker bet. Minny opened at -4.5...I learn something new every year.

Minny opened -3(CRIS), and was bet up to 5 5.5, and is now solid 3. The GREEK opened the game 4.5, 10 minutes after CRIS. As I've said before, Vegas has ZERO to do with the market. Good Luck

 

[YourAllAmerican]

Something that Pags was telling me the other day that i didn't know. When Vegas opens a line at 4.5 it is considered a sucker line. If Vegas thinks a team has a good chance to lose a game outright, but needs money on both sides of the line, they will set the line at 4.5. You don't EVER play on a team that has a -4.5 line set on them. it's a sucker bet. Minny opened at -4.5...I learn something new every year.

That's a very interesting theory. I'm going to have to keep an eye on games that fit that bill. Makes some sense when you think about the key numbers.

You've got a good resource there in Pags. It helps to be able to exchange ideas and opinions.

 

[GoSooners]

That's a very interesting theory. I'm going to have to keep an eye on games that fit that bill. Makes some sense when you think about the key numbers.

You've got a good resource there in Pags. It helps to be able to exchange ideas and opinions.

Like BP said, Vegas doesn't really have anything to do with it. I was referring mainly to my sports books. I noticed a book that I had opened the number at -4.5 for the game. I don't know what the majority of the rest opened it at. The main board at the RX said 3. As he said, Cris had it at -3.

Pags is a good resource for giving me some info that maybe I didn't know about with a particular game. He watches game film and is good at spotting certain teams strengths and weaknesses. I've got a couple other friends around the country that I talk to each week. It's always nice to get a second or third opinion on a game. We don't always agree on things. But at least it gives us something else to think about.

 

[Dwight_Schrute]

Any early thoughts on USC/OSU Sooners?

 

[GoSooners]

Any early thoughts on USC/OSU Sooners?

My feeling is USC wins it. I'm just not sure they can cover the number with a freshman QB. This one I'll just be sitting back and enjoying. But I have a feeling that if USC wins this game, they have a good chance to go undefeated this season. I think they are THAT good.

 

[Dwight_Schrute]

My feeling is USC wins it. I'm just not sure they can cover the number with a freshman QB. This one I'll just be sitting back and enjoying. But I have a feeling that if USC wins this game, they have a good chance to go undefeated this season. I think they are THAT good.

See, i dont think they are THAT good this year. I think they are living off of all hype from previous years. They are a totally different team this year than years past. It takes a VERY special freshman QB to go undefeated, and I don't think USC can do that