GoSooners Big 12 Plays Of The Week For 9-20

[Jetplane]

kst is returning 7 on offense & 5 on defense....lou is returning 4 on offense & 5 on defense....

thank you > I'm liking the UNDER also.

 

[GoSooners]

I like the Baylor pick a lot GoSooners. (actually I like the fade)
I think they played the game of their lives last week.

Conan...If I can get this line to go down to 11 or below, I'm probably going to load up some more and make this a Best Bet play. I think the public is a little too obsessed with Baylor QB Griffin. I have a feeling he's going to come down to earth fast when he faces the nasty UCONN defense on the road...Good luck

 

[YourAllAmerican]

I think the public is a little too obsessed with Baylor QB Griffin. I have a feeling he's going to come down to earth fast when he faces the nasty UCONN defense on the road.

Dead on. Griffin had a good game against a terrible team, but UConn has faced better much better quarterbacks than him over the last several seasons and they've proven to have a stout defense against QBs who can both run and pass. I'll take the tried-and-tested defense against a true freshman facing his first tough opponent any day. I'm not convinced Baylor will see 17 in this game.

I took the Huskies at 12.5, but it dipped down to a touchdown and a field goal, I'm pretty sure I'd double up on my bet.

 

[cowpokes]

couldnt paste the spreadsheet for the game but alot of books are moving to 4.5 now. 75% of the public on kstate. Line moving in the normal direction.

 

[GoSooners]

Dead on. Griffin had a good game against a terrible team, but UConn has faced better much better quarterbacks than him over the last several seasons and they've proven to have a stout defense against QBs who can both run and pass. I'll take the tried-and-tested defense against a true freshman facing his first tough opponent any day. I'm not convinced Baylor will see 17 in this game.

I took the Huskies at 12.5, but it dipped down to a touchdown and a field goal, I'm pretty sure I'd double up on my bet.

I agree...UCONN faces Pat White and Grothe every year. And UCONN beat a much better USF team last season. And somebody like Grothe can both run and pass. Whereas Griffin really hasn't been tested in the pass game. He completed a few on the run while he was scrambling with the ball against WSU. But I'm betting he won't see his receivers open this week like he did against WSU.

 

[GoSooners]

couldnt paste the spreadsheet for the game but alot of books are moving to 4.5 now. 75% of the public on kstate. Line moving in the normal direction.

It's kind of a odd line, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if it got all the way up to 5 by kickoff.

 

[GoSooners]

Since these threads kind of get lost in here, here's an update of games I've played so far:

Louisville (+4) over KSU ***
Louisville-KSU (UNDER 56) **
Wake Forest (+4) over FSU **
UCONN (-12) over Baylor *** (Possible best bet play if I can get this line at around 11)

 

[YourAllAmerican]

I agree...UCONN faces Pat White and Grothe every year. And UCONN beat a much better USF team last season. And somebody like Grothe can both run and pass. Whereas Griffin really hasn't been tested in the pass game. He completed a few on the run while he was scrambling with the ball against WSU. But I'm betting he won't see his receivers open this week like he did against WSU.

No, I don't expect there'll be much available to Griffin. I think the UConn coach, Randy Edsall, is sharp as hell and his team's defensive performances against WVU and USF over the last couple of years show that putting together a game plan for dealing with mobile QBs is something he's good at.

Is it too much to hope for that Dr. Bob might decide he likes Baylor here?

 

[GoSooners]

No, I don't expect there'll be much available to Griffin. I think the UConn coach, Randy Edsall, is sharp as hell and his team's defensive performances against WVU and USF over the last couple of years show that putting together a game plan for dealing with mobile QBs is something he's good at.

Is it too much to hope for that Dr. Bob might decide he likes Baylor here?

I agree...Randy Edsall is one sharp mofo. Hopefully Dr. Bob is a closet Baptist and we can get some value with this play.

 

[asudevil88]

Good luck GS. Keep up the good work.

 

[GoSooners]

The KSU-Louisville line just got steamed. I'm seeing some 5 to 5.5 numbers out there.

 

[Mr.Smith]

Florida St will get a lot of rushing yards from their QB's moving and on planned runs by Richardson, who is very very dangerous running the ball. FSU has a lot of weapons this year, they arent easy to stop anymore. Watch out for Corey Surrency #1, he looks like a big impact player.

I can see the angle for Wake, but I remain confident in my large FSU play and am not budging off it.

 

[mlmleads]

Baylor at UCONN...Baylor comes to UCONN off of the biggest win they've had in years over a hapless WSU team. UCONN keeps plugging along at 3-0 after a 45-10 win over Virginia last week. I'm still dumbfounded on why this UCONN team doesn't get more respect either by the preseason prognosticators or the public. This is a very good team. Both on offense and defense. Especially defense. I think outside of maybe USF, this could possibly be the best team in the Big East this year, because of their stout defense. And they have the easiest schedule to get there playing Cincy, WV and Pitt all at home this year. UCONN in my opinion is a legit top 20 team..Baylor is NOT. This team has alot of kinks to work out. Sure they have a new talented freshman QB. But Baylor's defense is still something that has been thrown together by spare parts. Especially in their back 7 where Art Briles has had to move players from different positions to fill the holes. And Baylor's special teams weren't good at all at the beginning of the season. And will probably be exposed along with their defense when they hit the road. I actually think we're getting a little bit of value here with the line. I think people are looking at UCONN's close game with Temple, and thinking this team isn't for real. Especially since we already knew Virginia was already a bad team coming off the USC game. But I watched the UCONN-Temple game. And UCONN ran over this team all day, but just didn't score. Missed FG's and slick ball fumbles into the endzone made the game much closer than it should have been. Plus it was a driving rainstorm at times in the game being played on a grass field that was a big equalizer. I think what is going to happen here is Baylor is going to revert back to it's first game against Wake Forest. Wake completely stuffed this team on defense. And UCONN is just as good on that side of the ball as Wake..Maybe better. Baylor is going to have some problems here. And though they've probably got a few kinks ironed out on offense, they still aren't a very balanced team. And it would surprise me if Baylor doesn't make a few mistakes that sets up UCONN for some easy scores. Baylor relies heavily on the running of their freshman QB. But their going up against a defense that allows only 80 ypg rushing, and is going to key on his running and make him put it in the air. And so far this hasn't been his strong suit. On the other side QB Lorenzen woke up last week going 13-15 passing and adding another 52 yards rushing. So UCONN has a double threat of their own at QB. And much more experience. I've looked at this game up and down and see no reason why UCONN can't continue their winning ways and dispatch of Baylor with relative ease. I think we're getting good value here with the game getting bet down from 14 to 12. I'm not sure exactly what the public is thinking here other than the results of Baylor's last game. But in my opinion Baylor is barely a cut above the Virginia team that UCONN took care of by 35 points last week. And I can easily see about a 17 to 21 point win here despite UCONN having Louisville on board next week....Taking UCONN (-12) over Baylor ***

This game also looks very promising by the numbers.. The line has dropped more to -11.5

 

[GoSooners]

Florida St will get a lot of rushing yards from their QB's moving and on planned runs by Richardson, who is very very dangerous running the ball. FSU has a lot of weapons this year, they arent easy to stop anymore. Watch out for Corey Surrency #1, he looks like a big impact player.

I can see the angle for Wake, but I remain confident in my large FSU play and am not budging off it.

You could be right..But we won't know for sure until FSU actually plays somebody with a pulse.

 

[GoSooners]

This game also looks very promising by the numbers.. The line has dropped more to -11.5

My numbers have it capped out at UCONN -21. So this is a pretty huge difference. And starts getting into big play territory for me when I see this big a difference.

 

[balls2thawall]

I am riding with you on Louisville tonight, and have followed on other plays this year with good success. BOL tonight and this weekend.

same here:toast:

 

[cashflow50]

The KSU-Louisville line just got steamed. I'm seeing some 5 to 5.5 numbers out there.

late money must be coming in on k st.

 

[bellyputter]

GoSooners, the public has nothing to do with the UConn line move. This game was hit by a betting group on Monday. Good Luck

 

[GoSooners]

GoSooners, the public has nothing to do with the UConn line move. This game was hit by a betting group on Monday. Good Luck

BP...Not that I am an expert on the dollars and cents part of this game, but don't you consider a "group" public?

 

[Basket Case]

GoSooners, the public has nothing to do with the UConn line move. This game was hit by a betting group on Monday. Good Luck

How many people comprise a "betting group?" :think2:

Like a syndicate move? I am not educated in these matters. Thanks.