Some thoughts on the Big 12 this week as I drool over the thought of state fair corny dogs.
As a resident homer for KU, could somebody kindly explain to me why KU is a 2 TD favorite vs. CU. I don't get it. CU has been able to slow down the spread offense. KU has beaten CU by 5 points the last two seasons. KU has been a very up and down team this season (as illustrated by last week's game). I see this as a reletively low scoring affair with KU not being able to cover. Something like 23-17 Jayhawks.
Is it just me, or is Texas Tech (-21) vs. Nebraska a "save the retirement fund" game? Someone better convince why not to lay it down on Tech.
Do we truly think that OU is a TD better then UT? Or is the line set that high for other reasons, namely, historically these games haven't been within a TD. Or am I completely missing something about Texas.
Good luck. I hate betting on Clemson, we will see how you do with that side.
As a resident homer for KU, could somebody kindly explain to me why KU is a 2 TD favorite vs. CU. I don't get it. CU has been able to slow down the spread offense. KU has beaten CU by 5 points the last two seasons. KU has been a very up and down team this season (as illustrated by last week's game). I see this as a reletively low scoring affair with KU not being able to cover. Something like 23-17 Jayhawks.
Is it just me, or is Texas Tech (-21) vs. Nebraska a "save the retirement fund" game? Someone better convince why not to lay it down on Tech.
Do we truly think that OU is a TD better then UT? Or is the line set that high for other reasons, namely, historically these games haven't been within a TD. Or am I completely missing something about Texas.
Good luck. I hate betting on Clemson, we will see how you do with that side.
GoSooners any thoughts on Tulsa -25 @ SMU? I have been following Tulsa this season. I know its a lot of points on the road, but SMU D seems very weak. Defensive stats - SMU is giving up 41 ppg. They are ranked 117th in total yards, 109th against the rush and 112th against the pass. Thanks for any imput and look forward to your write ups this weekend. Thanks again for the amazing work this season.
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well put me on the list of bet my MMA on TT this weekend...i thought MO was gonna obliterate them last week and they did...and that was in lincoln at night....now they gonna go on the road vs another team who will throw it every down and has shown no signs of being stopped this year...i personally think this line should be 28.5...i just dont know how NU can keep this one close....TT not gonna call off the dogs....30years of running it up vs these teams its payback time....that and NU hasnt really looked all that good in their wins this season...the SJSU score was REALLY misleading...the wins vs WMICH/NmexSt arent quality wins...they got smoked last week and made VT (who i think stinks) looks like NC contenders...i dont know unless they seriously win the TO battle and come up with some gimmick scores etc....i dont know how TT doesnt win this game 50-21
I like Tulsa. Once again like last week, Tulsa is playing a team who can't run the ball or play defense. And until they do, none of these teams are going to be a threat to them. I'm just not crazy about giving this many points up on the road. But my feeling is they'll cover because for some reason Tulsa still can't seem to crack the top 25 polls. And until they do, I believe that Todd Graham will have his team pouring it on the weaker teams..And SMU definitely qualifies as a weakling....Good luck
Fellas...I feel the same way as you do about the TT-Nebraska game..But I'm not betting the house on the game because my numbers have TT winning by just 21. Which is right on the spread. The only thing I can tell you is Nebraska is statistically both a better offensive and defensive team than the KSU team that TT took to the woodshed last week..Which tells you how good the Mizzou victory over Nebraska was last week. So the question you have to ask yourself is Texas Tech as good as Mizzou? In my opinion TT isn't anywhere close to as good as Mizzou. But it still doesn't change my opinion about this game..I think TT will cover against Nebraska..But probably by not as much as Mizzou did...Good luck
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GoSooners what do you think of this 10 point Tease play for Big 12 games:
<TABLE class=WagerTable cellSpacing=2 width="100%" border=0 cellpading="1"><TBODY><TR><TD>Oct 11</TD><TD align=left>CFB [119] TEXAS +17-110 (B+10) </TD></TR><TR><TD>Oct 11</TD><TD align=left>CFB [142] MISSOURI -4½-110 (B+10) </TD></TR><TR><TD>Oct 11</TD><TD align=left>CFB [172] TEXAS TECH -10½-110 (B+10) </TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=3>Risking 600.00 USD To Win 500.00 USD</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE class=WagerTable cellSpacing=2 width="100%" border=0 cellpading="1"><TBODY><TR><TD>Oct 11</TD><TD align=left>CFB [119] TEXAS +17-110 (B+10) </TD></TR><TR><TD>Oct 11</TD><TD align=left>CFB [142] MISSOURI -4½-110 (B+10) </TD></TR><TR><TD>Oct 11</TD><TD align=left>CFB [172] TEXAS TECH -10½-110 (B+10) </TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=3>Risking 600.00 USD To Win 500.00 USD</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Tulsa-Smu
Smu QB Mitchell throws picks like there going out of style. Take a look at SMU TO ratio they had 2 games were the turned the ball over 5 times. Mitchell throws at least 1-3 picks a game.
Now if you look at Tulsa and there TO margin. They actually create more TO on defense so expect Tulsa to have some short fields to play with.
Took Tulsa -25
Smu QB Mitchell throws picks like there going out of style. Take a look at SMU TO ratio they had 2 games were the turned the ball over 5 times. Mitchell throws at least 1-3 picks a game.
Now if you look at Tulsa and there TO margin. They actually create more TO on defense so expect Tulsa to have some short fields to play with.
Took Tulsa -25
The Red River Shootout:
Oklahoma vs Texas...I'm not going to pretend to be an expert at picking the winner of this game..I've been wrong on it as much as I have been right. History tells me you can pretty much throw past games and most of the stats and strength of schedule stuff out of the window when these two teams meet. It comes down to the personnel these two teams field along with coaching decisions, penalties, and who can protect the ball better and control the time of possession. This game will be played much differently than the past games that these two teams have played this season up to now..You can pretty much bank on it.
When Bob Stoops first became the OU coach he had a significant edge on Mack Brown in how to coach this game. It took Brown a while to catch up and start getting it..But let's make no mistake about it, he's caught up. And it all started in 2004 when after the 65-13 beating that Texas took to OU the year before, Mack Brown started making changes in his coaching staff and strategy coming into this game..So it went from a 52 point blowout one year to a 12-0 OU victory the next year..Then in 2005 Texas turned the corner and beat OU with Vince Young. Then went on to win the national title..In 2006 Texas had a QB change to Colt McCoy. But Texas still had the remnants of the great O and D-Lines. And Texas was able to beat OU 28-10. Then last season Texas had to replace their lines, and even though the Sooners had a true freshamn QB, they took advantage with a tight 28-21 win over the Horns.
This year looks like it has all of the signs of another even matchup. Both teams have great offensive and defensive lines along with a couple great QB's. And this is usually how you can tell how close of a game this is going to be..This game is won and lost in the trenches. And I think it's very close between these teams. Both have great O-Lines. And both have great D-Lines, but questionable secondaries that really haven't been tested enough against a good BCS team with a talented QB..They will this week. Both secondaries are young, but both teams have tons of speed to spare and haven't let many pass plays get behind them this year. And if this trend continues we could see a low scoring game with a lot of Bradford and McCoy dinks and dunks. The reason I say this is because I think both of these defensive lines are too good to let either QB set up on a consistent basis for a dropback pass to throw 40 or 50 yards down the field. They simply won't have as much time in this game. So I think both QB's will be taken out of their rhythm. Look for some QB scrambles and alot of short outlet passes to the tight ends and RB's.
Much has been said about the rushing ability of both teams..With McCoy being the leading rusher for Texas..And OU's Demarco Murray not looking the same as did last year up to this point..But here's the bottom line. OU rushes for about 180 ypg and Texas rushes for about 200..If this is struggling with the run game, let me have these numbers all day. Texas is actually the slight running dogs in this game with a (+1.36 Texas to +1.33 for OU). But the two big things that I KNOW Texas will have going for them in this game over OU is special teams..OU has been terrible this year with their special teams in almost all aspects of the game. Especially covering kickoff and punt returns..And OU's return yards has also been atrocious. And Texas special teams have been excellent this year..And with Quan Crosby back there it makes for a big threat in the return game. And getting good field position from kick & punt returns in this game will be HUGE. Secondly, it's been OU that has been getting all of the publicity coming into this game, with Texas playing second fiddle to all of the ESPN and other media outlets. I've never felt comfortable betting against teams that are waiting in the shadows to pounce on the number 1 team..And we all know that the number 1 position in the polls hasn't been a healthy place to be the last couple of years.
What it comes down to is 2 great teams with great QB's. And with so much on the line this season, I don't think either team will go easy. This is pretty much the season for both teams. Whoever wins this game is always in the drivers seat to win the Big 12 South. So look for both coaches to pull out all of the stops and show us a few new things we haven't seen before. I expect a toe to toe matchup. And 7 points seems like alot to me in a series that has gotten very close in the last few years...I think it continues here...Taking Texas (+7) over OU **
Oklahoma vs Texas...I'm not going to pretend to be an expert at picking the winner of this game..I've been wrong on it as much as I have been right. History tells me you can pretty much throw past games and most of the stats and strength of schedule stuff out of the window when these two teams meet. It comes down to the personnel these two teams field along with coaching decisions, penalties, and who can protect the ball better and control the time of possession. This game will be played much differently than the past games that these two teams have played this season up to now..You can pretty much bank on it.
When Bob Stoops first became the OU coach he had a significant edge on Mack Brown in how to coach this game. It took Brown a while to catch up and start getting it..But let's make no mistake about it, he's caught up. And it all started in 2004 when after the 65-13 beating that Texas took to OU the year before, Mack Brown started making changes in his coaching staff and strategy coming into this game..So it went from a 52 point blowout one year to a 12-0 OU victory the next year..Then in 2005 Texas turned the corner and beat OU with Vince Young. Then went on to win the national title..In 2006 Texas had a QB change to Colt McCoy. But Texas still had the remnants of the great O and D-Lines. And Texas was able to beat OU 28-10. Then last season Texas had to replace their lines, and even though the Sooners had a true freshamn QB, they took advantage with a tight 28-21 win over the Horns.
This year looks like it has all of the signs of another even matchup. Both teams have great offensive and defensive lines along with a couple great QB's. And this is usually how you can tell how close of a game this is going to be..This game is won and lost in the trenches. And I think it's very close between these teams. Both have great O-Lines. And both have great D-Lines, but questionable secondaries that really haven't been tested enough against a good BCS team with a talented QB..They will this week. Both secondaries are young, but both teams have tons of speed to spare and haven't let many pass plays get behind them this year. And if this trend continues we could see a low scoring game with a lot of Bradford and McCoy dinks and dunks. The reason I say this is because I think both of these defensive lines are too good to let either QB set up on a consistent basis for a dropback pass to throw 40 or 50 yards down the field. They simply won't have as much time in this game. So I think both QB's will be taken out of their rhythm. Look for some QB scrambles and alot of short outlet passes to the tight ends and RB's.
Much has been said about the rushing ability of both teams..With McCoy being the leading rusher for Texas..And OU's Demarco Murray not looking the same as did last year up to this point..But here's the bottom line. OU rushes for about 180 ypg and Texas rushes for about 200..If this is struggling with the run game, let me have these numbers all day. Texas is actually the slight running dogs in this game with a (+1.36 Texas to +1.33 for OU). But the two big things that I KNOW Texas will have going for them in this game over OU is special teams..OU has been terrible this year with their special teams in almost all aspects of the game. Especially covering kickoff and punt returns..And OU's return yards has also been atrocious. And Texas special teams have been excellent this year..And with Quan Crosby back there it makes for a big threat in the return game. And getting good field position from kick & punt returns in this game will be HUGE. Secondly, it's been OU that has been getting all of the publicity coming into this game, with Texas playing second fiddle to all of the ESPN and other media outlets. I've never felt comfortable betting against teams that are waiting in the shadows to pounce on the number 1 team..And we all know that the number 1 position in the polls hasn't been a healthy place to be the last couple of years.
What it comes down to is 2 great teams with great QB's. And with so much on the line this season, I don't think either team will go easy. This is pretty much the season for both teams. Whoever wins this game is always in the drivers seat to win the Big 12 South. So look for both coaches to pull out all of the stops and show us a few new things we haven't seen before. I expect a toe to toe matchup. And 7 points seems like alot to me in a series that has gotten very close in the last few years...I think it continues here...Taking Texas (+7) over OU **
