Good info for newbies regarding 2 team nfl teasers.

[rolltide]

3pt, Is this the same as the Wong System?

yes it is. but when he was killing vegas with this the 6-pt teaser was +100 ... they moved it to -110 or even -120 at some places. 5dimes still has best teaser market around

 

[paulfmf]

FWIW

Week 1---1-0 I checked after the fact. I didn't play and I don't remember the teams.

Week 2---3-0

Balt -7.5
Wash + 2.5
Den + 2.5

These were very close to game time lines

 

[3pointdog]

Funny note

someone copied and pasted this thread exactly on Facebook and took credit for it. Some people...!!

i don't really care as I was posting it for info purposes but I didn't make it up. Just putting it out there.

 

[sparticus]

3pointdog, Yes i copied & pasted Your info on facebook, But did no take credit for it at all, sorry if that is what you think, i just posted it to pass on the info you posted here! Thank YOU,GL

 

[3pointdog]

3pointdog, Yes i copied & pasted Your info on facebook, But did no take credit for it at all, sorry if that is what you think, i just posted it to pass on the info you posted here! Thank YOU,GL

no worries. We are all just trying to help each other. All good here

 

[sparticus]

K, gl!

 

[rolltide]

I've seen some private analytical work by some really smart folks on teasing across 0 and how profitable it actually is....taking -3 to +4, etc.

well there you would be talking 7pt teasers at an average of -140 odds so your win rate would have to be 80% on those numbers...which it is not. A -3 fav covers the 6-pt teaser line only 69.4% of the time...-2.5 = 64.4%...those are horrible numbers. The key is to cross 3 and 7 as historically 24% of all NFL games land on 3 or 7 exactly, 4-6 approx 14% of time.

1-2-5-8-9 are the fewest hit rates of the single digit numbers are are inconsequential when teasing a game. and, because a game won't land on 0 (happened 9x in 30 years) you are giving away 3 of your 6 points on the least likely results in NFL (0, 1, and 2) making this the worst possible teaser method you can create, especially in a 6-pt teaser where ties reduce on the +3

 

[paulfmf]

SF +2
Ind +1.5
GB -8.5

However Sun lines subject to change so SF not in play of me.

 

[OnTheHop]

Good info, thanks!

 

[paulfmf]

Indy +1.5
Tampa +1.5

 

[Saints2016]

yes it is. but when he was killing vegas with this the 6-pt teaser was +100 ... they moved it to -110 or even -120 at some places. 5dimes still has best teaser market around

Rolltide, or anyone else. Do you know of any books that have -110 odds for a 6PT teaser? I usually use 5Dimes for dogs, and Heritage for Favs. However, it's usually -120 odds