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GMan 2016 NFL Year Long Thread
- Thread starter gmaryanski
- Start date
Thanks to those Skins not quitting at the end, I had a nice profitable Thanksgiving. A real strong 3-1 week, with only a 1* loss (on the Browns. Again. As always. I need to remove them from my betting options). Here is where we stand through week 12:
3*- 8-5-1, +7.5
2*- 10-7-1, +4.6
1*- 10-4, +5.6
Overall 28-16-2, +17.7. Certainly will take a 63% clip at this point. Will be back later this week as we look to finish strong (will continue to avoid the Thursday game). BOL with your action as I root home my Eagles tonight
GMan
3*- 8-5-1, +7.5
2*- 10-7-1, +4.6
1*- 10-4, +5.6
Overall 28-16-2, +17.7. Certainly will take a 63% clip at this point. Will be back later this week as we look to finish strong (will continue to avoid the Thursday game). BOL with your action as I root home my Eagles tonight
GMan
Back with our week 13 action, boys. Looking to finish strong as the lines tighten, some teams play out the string and others jockey for playoff position. Going to be a little more selective, but certainly not going to stop playing (that would be a tragedy). Here's where we are in week 13:
3*- SF PK over Chicago- I hate Chip Kelly, I think he is a college gimmick coach who won't last in the NFL. I also think they have extremely limited talent. But I think that Matt Barkley is an arena league QB, and the Bears defense will get tired. I do expect this to be a bit of a high scoring affair, but I'll take SF 27-23.
2*- Det +7 over NO- buy the 1/2 point if you have to, but I don't think you need it. I see no reason Detroit can't win a shootout outright- and certainly cover a touchdown. I think that the Saints win with a late FG, 38-35
1*- Atlanta -4 1/2 over KC- I just think this is a bad matchup for a good KC team. They will have to score with Atlanta, who should do enough to slow down the Chiefs pass rush to put up a number in the mid 20's. Let's say 27-20, Falcons
1*- Pats -13 over LA- Hoodie against a rookie QB with a bad offense. Even without Gronk, that is a recipe for disaster. Plus you can expect the Pats to come out throwing early and often to put the game out of reach early- they don't screw around like other coaches. 31-9, Pats.
That's all for now, boys- BOL with your action.
GMan
3*- SF PK over Chicago- I hate Chip Kelly, I think he is a college gimmick coach who won't last in the NFL. I also think they have extremely limited talent. But I think that Matt Barkley is an arena league QB, and the Bears defense will get tired. I do expect this to be a bit of a high scoring affair, but I'll take SF 27-23.
2*- Det +7 over NO- buy the 1/2 point if you have to, but I don't think you need it. I see no reason Detroit can't win a shootout outright- and certainly cover a touchdown. I think that the Saints win with a late FG, 38-35
1*- Atlanta -4 1/2 over KC- I just think this is a bad matchup for a good KC team. They will have to score with Atlanta, who should do enough to slow down the Chiefs pass rush to put up a number in the mid 20's. Let's say 27-20, Falcons
1*- Pats -13 over LA- Hoodie against a rookie QB with a bad offense. Even without Gronk, that is a recipe for disaster. Plus you can expect the Pats to come out throwing early and often to put the game out of reach early- they don't screw around like other coaches. 31-9, Pats.
That's all for now, boys- BOL with your action.
GMan
Sorry for the delay boys- I will combine the recap of last week (spoiler alert- lot's of cousin kissing as I went 2-2 for a small losing week) and my thoughts on week 14. After a 2-2 last week and a -1.3 for the week (couldn't have been more wrong about SF- they are a dreg team) here is where we are YTD:
3*-8-6-1, +4.2
2*-11-7-1, +6.6
1*- 11-4, +5.5
Overall, 30-17-2, +16.3 And now on to Week 14:
3*- Saints +2 over TB- this is a money line play, and my favorite of the week. I think it will be a scoring week, Brees will bounce back (he is a huge stat whore, so no TD's last week will hurt his ego) and I just don't think TB is that good. Expect a high scoring Saints win, 37-34 NO
3*- Saints Team Total over 24 1/2- see the above recap. I really expect a ton of scoring, and this to be an EASY over.
2*- Cleveland +6 over Cincinnati- I say I won't bet on the Browns nearly every week- yet I do every week. This is their best chance at a win this year, I think they like thier coach and want to give him SOMETHING, and despite hammering my Eagles last week the Bengals are not dynamic enough offensively to run them out of the building. Low scoring, boring game that you shouldn't watch- but the Brownies win outright, 20-16.
1*- NYG +3 1/2 over Dallas- not much science behind this, or I wouldn't be betting against Dallas. They cover every week. I just think the Giants match up well, and crazy things happen in this rivalry. Look for a big Eli game- Giants, 26-23.
That's all, boys. Hope for a big week and see you with a recap early next week.
GMan
3*-8-6-1, +4.2
2*-11-7-1, +6.6
1*- 11-4, +5.5
Overall, 30-17-2, +16.3 And now on to Week 14:
3*- Saints +2 over TB- this is a money line play, and my favorite of the week. I think it will be a scoring week, Brees will bounce back (he is a huge stat whore, so no TD's last week will hurt his ego) and I just don't think TB is that good. Expect a high scoring Saints win, 37-34 NO
3*- Saints Team Total over 24 1/2- see the above recap. I really expect a ton of scoring, and this to be an EASY over.
2*- Cleveland +6 over Cincinnati- I say I won't bet on the Browns nearly every week- yet I do every week. This is their best chance at a win this year, I think they like thier coach and want to give him SOMETHING, and despite hammering my Eagles last week the Bengals are not dynamic enough offensively to run them out of the building. Low scoring, boring game that you shouldn't watch- but the Brownies win outright, 20-16.
1*- NYG +3 1/2 over Dallas- not much science behind this, or I wouldn't be betting against Dallas. They cover every week. I just think the Giants match up well, and crazy things happen in this rivalry. Look for a big Eli game- Giants, 26-23.
That's all, boys. Hope for a big week and see you with a recap early next week.
GMan
No sugar coating it- I absolutely sucked last week. Putting too much trust in a fraud team like NO and their stat whore QB, and continuing to bet on the Browns is a great way to dispose of your positive #- which I proved last week. Neither will happen again as I try to close strong and get back a semblance of profit (not to mention I am currently in first in an LV Hilton type contest for a pretty good payout, so I need to get back on my game.
After last weeks 1-3 (only winning the smallest play), here is where we are, and then a lead in to week 15:
3*- 8-8-1, -2.4
2*- 11-8-1, +4.4
1*- 12-4, +6.5
Overall 31-20-2, still 60% hit rate- but our $$$ is a paltry +8.5 thanks to hitting the wrong games. Follow or fade for week 15, here's what I have:
3*- Ravens -6 over the Eagles. I hate to bet against my squad, but they have bottomed out, don't play well defensively on the road and the Ravens are going to be pissed off after getting hammered by the Pats. At home, that spells bad things for the Eagles- 31-13 Ravens
2*- Houston -5 over Jags- Jacksonville is another team that I have lost a small fortune betting on, but not this week. Houston gets crushed, as does Osweiller- and most of it justified. They are, however, sitting in first place and play well at home. Enough for me to take a shot.
2*- Redskins Team Total over 28- get it in now before it goes up a dreaded half point. I think this is a revenge game where I like the Skins to score early and often, despite the minimum of 2 personal fouls that Josh Norman gets for being an emotional child. I could see the Skins hitting 40, and I'm certainly comfortable expecting more than 28- 38-30 Washington
1*- Pats -3 over Denver- Never like betting against a decent home team, especially one with the home field advantage the Broncos have. But Tom Brady is approaching GOAT status as he continues to put up monster numbers with pedestrian tools, and they are a diverse offense that can run on the Broncos, where they are more susceptible. Lower scoring, but I'll say 23-17, Pats.
BOL with your action this week as I try to right the ship, Boys
GMan
After last weeks 1-3 (only winning the smallest play), here is where we are, and then a lead in to week 15:
3*- 8-8-1, -2.4
2*- 11-8-1, +4.4
1*- 12-4, +6.5
Overall 31-20-2, still 60% hit rate- but our $$$ is a paltry +8.5 thanks to hitting the wrong games. Follow or fade for week 15, here's what I have:
3*- Ravens -6 over the Eagles. I hate to bet against my squad, but they have bottomed out, don't play well defensively on the road and the Ravens are going to be pissed off after getting hammered by the Pats. At home, that spells bad things for the Eagles- 31-13 Ravens
2*- Houston -5 over Jags- Jacksonville is another team that I have lost a small fortune betting on, but not this week. Houston gets crushed, as does Osweiller- and most of it justified. They are, however, sitting in first place and play well at home. Enough for me to take a shot.
2*- Redskins Team Total over 28- get it in now before it goes up a dreaded half point. I think this is a revenge game where I like the Skins to score early and often, despite the minimum of 2 personal fouls that Josh Norman gets for being an emotional child. I could see the Skins hitting 40, and I'm certainly comfortable expecting more than 28- 38-30 Washington
1*- Pats -3 over Denver- Never like betting against a decent home team, especially one with the home field advantage the Broncos have. But Tom Brady is approaching GOAT status as he continues to put up monster numbers with pedestrian tools, and they are a diverse offense that can run on the Broncos, where they are more susceptible. Lower scoring, but I'll say 23-17, Pats.
BOL with your action this week as I try to right the ship, Boys
GMan
Another absolutely dreadful week, leaking oil all the way down to about break even. I will continue to post as I said a year, and I am a man of my word. But don't rrail at this point- I am not only spiraling but have the dreaded loss of confidence that has me scared of bets I'd normally hammer. After last week, here is where I stand:
3*- 8-9-1. -5.7
2*- 11-10-1, 0.0
1*-13-4, +7-5
Overall 32-23-2, but only +1.8 units on the year. Let's see if we have some semblance of pride left:
2*- Eagles +3 over NYGiants- no stat backs this up other than the line, which should be much more heavily slanted to the Giants- and the line has actually dropped despite 80% of the money on the Giants. Weird things happen on Thursday night- 27-23 Eagles
2*- Browns +6 over SD- The Browns haven't covered 8 in a row, and I had swore to myself I was done getting kicked in the balls by them. Well I am apparently a masochist, because I think their run game will be enough to keep them in a game against a Charger team traveling East that does just enough to lose most of its games. 26-23 Chargers
2*- Skins -3 over Chicago- The Skins just laid a huge egg and didn't show up, so this a bet mostly on Jay Gruden making them play like men. The Bears haven't quit and are playing at home, but I still think Matt Barkley is dreadful. 31-21 Skins
1*- Pats -16 1/2 over NYJ- Ton of points in a game that has historically been close. But Brady is coming off a terrible game (though still a win) and will light them up. Bryce Petty will have to match him. I don't like his chances. 41-13 Pats
That's it, boys- BOL, hope you all have a great holiday and are raking in a little $$$
GMan
3*- 8-9-1. -5.7
2*- 11-10-1, 0.0
1*-13-4, +7-5
Overall 32-23-2, but only +1.8 units on the year. Let's see if we have some semblance of pride left:
2*- Eagles +3 over NYGiants- no stat backs this up other than the line, which should be much more heavily slanted to the Giants- and the line has actually dropped despite 80% of the money on the Giants. Weird things happen on Thursday night- 27-23 Eagles
2*- Browns +6 over SD- The Browns haven't covered 8 in a row, and I had swore to myself I was done getting kicked in the balls by them. Well I am apparently a masochist, because I think their run game will be enough to keep them in a game against a Charger team traveling East that does just enough to lose most of its games. 26-23 Chargers
2*- Skins -3 over Chicago- The Skins just laid a huge egg and didn't show up, so this a bet mostly on Jay Gruden making them play like men. The Bears haven't quit and are playing at home, but I still think Matt Barkley is dreadful. 31-21 Skins
1*- Pats -16 1/2 over NYJ- Ton of points in a game that has historically been close. But Brady is coming off a terrible game (though still a win) and will light them up. Bryce Petty will have to match him. I don't like his chances. 41-13 Pats
That's it, boys- BOL, hope you all have a great holiday and are raking in a little $$$
GMan
Indy, thanks for your confidence and continued posiitve energy- certainly paid off this week as I swept the board despite a crisis of confidence. Nice to be on the positive side of the ledger, and after the 4-0 record stands as follows:
3*- 8-9-1, -5.7
2*- 14-10-1, +6.0
1*- 14-4, +8.5
Overall now at 36-23-2, +8.8. Over 60% but a bad streak of my higher confidence games has hurt the bottom line. Here's hoping I've helped make some guys a little $$$ this year as I try to pay back the many strong cappers I check in with regularly here on the RX. I will issue some plays late on Sunday, as I am in a large pool payout where I am actually holding a lead in first place and don't want to give away any insight to my guys chasing me. But they will all be small, as week 17 is just horrible to pick.
BOL with all your action boys- and hope you are enjoying Bowl Season.
GMan
3*- 8-9-1, -5.7
2*- 14-10-1, +6.0
1*- 14-4, +8.5
Overall now at 36-23-2, +8.8. Over 60% but a bad streak of my higher confidence games has hurt the bottom line. Here's hoping I've helped make some guys a little $$$ this year as I try to pay back the many strong cappers I check in with regularly here on the RX. I will issue some plays late on Sunday, as I am in a large pool payout where I am actually holding a lead in first place and don't want to give away any insight to my guys chasing me. But they will all be small, as week 17 is just horrible to pick.
BOL with all your action boys- and hope you are enjoying Bowl Season.
GMan
