Good to see some banter this week prior to kickoff- I'll promise to check in a bit more. And we will certainly take another 3-1 week, with a hit on the 3* game. Going into week 7, and here is how we look:
3*- 5-3, +8.4
2*- 4-5, -3.0
1*- 6-2, +3.8
Overall that puts us at 15-10, +9.2 units. I am encouraged because I generally find the first 4 weeks the hardest to cap. Back later with Week 7.
GMan
3*- 5-3, +8.4
2*- 4-5, -3.0
1*- 6-2, +3.8
Overall that puts us at 15-10, +9.2 units. I am encouraged because I generally find the first 4 weeks the hardest to cap. Back later with Week 7.
GMan
If there is anyone out there listening or following- welcome to week 7. I had to post a bit early this week, as I actually have a play tonight that I like more than most on the card (very unusual for me- Thursday night games are usually garbage). Without further adieu, here we go:
3*- Packers Team Total over 27- I have marveled at their demise, and have not been on them all year as I think their coach holds back his offense trying to force balance. I doubt that will happen with WR Ty Montgomery forced to play RB. The Bears will also have to throw due to the strong run defense of the Pack (last week vs Dallas notwithstanding, they are the best OLine in the league), and lot's of passing means clock stoppage, turnovers, and points. 34-27 Pack
2*- Eagles +3 over Minnesota (buy a 1/2 if you have to, or wait until it goes to 3)- as an Eagles fanit is hard for me to bet on Eagles games, but this is a classic mismatch on paper that due to the ebb and flow of the NFL season won't play out that way. The Vikings D is excellent, but they don't have a dynamic offense or try to go for the throat, so I expect a close game that the Eagles actually win- 23-20, Eagles
2*- Miami +3 over Buffalo- I just don't believe the Bills are that good, and certainly not on the road. Don't get me wrong, I don't like the Phins at all, but I think they win a sloppy game at home. 20-19 Dolphins
1*- Colts +3 over Titans- Keep waiting on the Colts to pull one out, and the Titans let the Browns creep up on them. They will run on the Colts, but Luck wins one by himself. 24-23 Colts
BOL to everyone with their action.
GMan
3*- Packers Team Total over 27- I have marveled at their demise, and have not been on them all year as I think their coach holds back his offense trying to force balance. I doubt that will happen with WR Ty Montgomery forced to play RB. The Bears will also have to throw due to the strong run defense of the Pack (last week vs Dallas notwithstanding, they are the best OLine in the league), and lot's of passing means clock stoppage, turnovers, and points. 34-27 Pack
2*- Eagles +3 over Minnesota (buy a 1/2 if you have to, or wait until it goes to 3)- as an Eagles fanit is hard for me to bet on Eagles games, but this is a classic mismatch on paper that due to the ebb and flow of the NFL season won't play out that way. The Vikings D is excellent, but they don't have a dynamic offense or try to go for the throat, so I expect a close game that the Eagles actually win- 23-20, Eagles
2*- Miami +3 over Buffalo- I just don't believe the Bills are that good, and certainly not on the road. Don't get me wrong, I don't like the Phins at all, but I think they win a sloppy game at home. 20-19 Dolphins
1*- Colts +3 over Titans- Keep waiting on the Colts to pull one out, and the Titans let the Browns creep up on them. They will run on the Colts, but Luck wins one by himself. 24-23 Colts
BOL to everyone with their action.
GMan
Bounced back after a rough loss in my favorite play (thanks kicker, nameless as they are all the same- unreliable) to post a 3-1, positive week. I screwed up the math last week (the total units were right, but I had given myself an extra loss. I guess this just proves no one is listening to what I have to say, as no one called me on it and busted my stones 
. In any event, I've correct the record and through 7 weeks we look like this:
3*- 5-3, +5.4
2*- 6-5, +1.0
1*- 7-2, +4.8
Overall 18-10, +11.2 units. We'll certainly take that and look to bigger things as the middle of the year hits.
GMan
. In any event, I've correct the record and through 7 weeks we look like this:3*- 5-3, +5.4
2*- 6-5, +1.0
1*- 7-2, +4.8
Overall 18-10, +11.2 units. We'll certainly take that and look to bigger things as the middle of the year hits.
GMan
After another profitable week we trudge forward to week 8. You will note that I'm treading lightly this week, as I found the card really tight. That doesn't mean I won't be throwing something on too many games (I'm sure I will) it just means you shouldn't- you know, the old parent Do as I say, not as I do. Ethics lesson aside, here's what I'm rolling with in week 9:
2*- Houston -2 1/2 over Detroit- Houston needs a big offensive performance, and they are much better at home. I'm guessing that Hopkins finally gets loose, and they win fairly comfortable- 27-21
2*- GB/Atlanta over 52 1/2- Green Bay has no semblance of a running game, and they play great run defense. The Falcons have Julio Jones and backups in the defensive backfield for the Pack. Should be a fun game to watch, both teams near or in the 30's- Let's say 37-31 Falcons
1*- Clev +3 1/2 over NYJ- The Browns continually fight, and I think Josh McCown could actually win this game. If not, the Jets will have to outscore them, and I'm taking a shot that they keep it within an FG- 27-24 Jets
1*- Washington/Cincy over 46 1/2- more hunch that playing overseas hurts both defenses, and the Skins have running game injuries that will make them throw. The Bengals? They have that AJ Green, and I hear he is OK. Root for a shootout as I watch at the gym early Sunday AM- 31-27 Bengals.
That's it for week 8, boys- BOL with your action and play smart this week unless you really love something.
GMan
2*- Houston -2 1/2 over Detroit- Houston needs a big offensive performance, and they are much better at home. I'm guessing that Hopkins finally gets loose, and they win fairly comfortable- 27-21
2*- GB/Atlanta over 52 1/2- Green Bay has no semblance of a running game, and they play great run defense. The Falcons have Julio Jones and backups in the defensive backfield for the Pack. Should be a fun game to watch, both teams near or in the 30's- Let's say 37-31 Falcons
1*- Clev +3 1/2 over NYJ- The Browns continually fight, and I think Josh McCown could actually win this game. If not, the Jets will have to outscore them, and I'm taking a shot that they keep it within an FG- 27-24 Jets
1*- Washington/Cincy over 46 1/2- more hunch that playing overseas hurts both defenses, and the Skins have running game injuries that will make them throw. The Bengals? They have that AJ Green, and I hear he is OK. Root for a shootout as I watch at the gym early Sunday AM- 31-27 Bengals.
That's it for week 8, boys- BOL with your action and play smart this week unless you really love something.
GMan
Well, if a truly wise man knows he knows nothing (Socrates, baby- Google it) then I must be a freaking GENIUS. Didn't like the board this week, played light- and swept, 4-0. Liked the college board a ton, and went 1-5. Go figure. In any event, even smaller play wins are wins, so after a 4-0 week this is how we look:
3*- 6-3, +8.1
2*- 7-5, +3.0
1*- 9-2, +6.8
Overall- 22-10 (I'll certainly take that 69% rate), +17.1 Units. Let's keep this momentum going...
Be back with week 9 later, boys.
GMan
3*- 6-3, +8.1
2*- 7-5, +3.0
1*- 9-2, +6.8
Overall- 22-10 (I'll certainly take that 69% rate), +17.1 Units. Let's keep this momentum going...
Be back with week 9 later, boys.
GMan
Back with week 9 after a sweep, and once again I think the board is tough. Usually true that by this point of the year that Vegas has a feel for everyone, and the lines tighten up. Not going to stop me from playing (nor most people reading this, I would imagine) but want to be smart with my selections. Here's what I'm looking at:
2*- Browns Team total over 20 1/2- I think the Cowboys roll them (and I hate the Cowboys), but Cleveland always keeps playing and puts up points. Corey Coleman is back on the outside and the Dallas defense is super overrated, and missing 2 starting DB's. 35-27 Dallas
2*- Steelers Pk over Ravens- clearly betting on Big Ben to be back- and it is as simple as this game is critical for both teams, and I think Pitt is better overall and will rise up. Don't like betting against Baltimore at home, especially with their running game and the Pitt rush defense, but if Ben plays they will throw at will. Always a tough close game, but let's say 27-24, Steelers
2*- Chargers -5 over Tennessee- The Titans get no love, and their style is a poor match against SD. SD can defend the run now that Bosa is fully in swing, and the Titans are susceptible to the pass- which stat whore Rivers loves to do. Add in that Delanie Walker will be limited, and I just see a surprising 30-13 type whipping by the team with a worse record laying points at home.
1*- Vikings -6 over Detroit- I'd love to give you more than a feeling, but that's what I have on this one. The Vikings are embarrased by their performance in 2 straight, and Zimmer will play the emotional "he quit because he didn't think you guys could get it done" with his offense about Norv Turner. Detroit will struggle to throw, leaving Minnesota with a low scoring, 23-13 W.
That's it for me, boys. BOL with all your action this week.
GMan
2*- Browns Team total over 20 1/2- I think the Cowboys roll them (and I hate the Cowboys), but Cleveland always keeps playing and puts up points. Corey Coleman is back on the outside and the Dallas defense is super overrated, and missing 2 starting DB's. 35-27 Dallas
2*- Steelers Pk over Ravens- clearly betting on Big Ben to be back- and it is as simple as this game is critical for both teams, and I think Pitt is better overall and will rise up. Don't like betting against Baltimore at home, especially with their running game and the Pitt rush defense, but if Ben plays they will throw at will. Always a tough close game, but let's say 27-24, Steelers
2*- Chargers -5 over Tennessee- The Titans get no love, and their style is a poor match against SD. SD can defend the run now that Bosa is fully in swing, and the Titans are susceptible to the pass- which stat whore Rivers loves to do. Add in that Delanie Walker will be limited, and I just see a surprising 30-13 type whipping by the team with a worse record laying points at home.
1*- Vikings -6 over Detroit- I'd love to give you more than a feeling, but that's what I have on this one. The Vikings are embarrased by their performance in 2 straight, and Zimmer will play the emotional "he quit because he didn't think you guys could get it done" with his offense about Norv Turner. Detroit will struggle to throw, leaving Minnesota with a low scoring, 23-13 W.
That's it for me, boys. BOL with all your action this week.
GMan
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Ouch. A damn ugly week, when will I learn to not bet on the Browns (I usually like Dogs that play hard, but they are bereft of talent. No More)? In any event, after a 1-3 week (though I am grateful I played light due to a tough board), here is where we stand through week 9:
3*- 6-3-1, +8.1
2*- 8-7, +0.6
1*- 9-3, +5.7
Overall still a solid 23-13 (60+%), and plus 13.6 units. Let's try to turn it around in week 10, being aware that lines are getting tighter. Back with Week 10 soon (no Browns, I promise)
GMan
3*- 6-3-1, +8.1
2*- 8-7, +0.6
1*- 9-3, +5.7
Overall still a solid 23-13 (60+%), and plus 13.6 units. Let's try to turn it around in week 10, being aware that lines are getting tighter. Back with Week 10 soon (no Browns, I promise)
GMan
Boys, my apologies for not posting my plays thus far for week 10. I honestly thought I had done so- luckily for anyone following I hadn't, because I would have been 1-2 so far. For anyone interested, I do have a strong like on the game tonight:
3*- Bengals -1 over the Giants- the Giants have been living dangerously for a long time, and I just think the Bengals are desperate and see a little light with the Steelers loss. I expect a fairly easy win- call it 26-13, Bengals.
I'll be back with a full slate for next week, but this game will count towards my week 10 record keeping. Good luck, All.
GMan
3*- Bengals -1 over the Giants- the Giants have been living dangerously for a long time, and I just think the Bengals are desperate and see a little light with the Steelers loss. I expect a fairly easy win- call it 26-13, Bengals.
I'll be back with a full slate for next week, but this game will count towards my week 10 record keeping. Good luck, All.
GMan
Well- look like I should have just taken the week off. 0-1, -3.3 for the week. Overall, that puts me at:
3*- 6-4-1, +4.8
2*- 8-7, +0.6
1*- 9-3, +5.7
Total- 23-14-1, +11.1 for the year. Warning that the lines are TIGHT this week, and I don't love a ton so my plays will be small. Back soon with week 11.
GMan
3*- 6-4-1, +4.8
2*- 8-7, +0.6
1*- 9-3, +5.7
Total- 23-14-1, +11.1 for the year. Warning that the lines are TIGHT this week, and I don't love a ton so my plays will be small. Back soon with week 11.
GMan
Alright, boys- enough playing scared. I've done my analysis and have to trust what I am looking at. I do know that NFL lines tighten in November so I am going to play accordingly, but no reason to let a rough couple of weeks make us scared. Here is where I am for week 11:
3*- Pats -14 vs 49ers- This is a huge number, and on the road no less. But the Niners are dreadful, the Pats are coming off a tough loss and incredibly, this is the first time Brady has ever returned home to play. The Pats name their number, and after that loss they won't be in a forgiving mood. 41-13, Pats.
2*- Packers Team Total over 24- The good news for gamblers is that even when the Pack stinks (which is increasingly often this year) they never stop trying to score. Amazingly they are becoming a garbage time jewel- either they will right the ship and have to outscore The Skins (winner) or they will have to catch up, which they will not stop trying to do (also potential winner). I'd rather play this than a side, so lets say 31-30 Pack.
2*- Miami -1 1/2 over Rams- this is a trap game all the way. Well, consider me trapped. Goff couldn't beat out Case Keenum, and now the Dolphins are going to make his life as miserable as possible. Their running game alone makes them worthy of a play- let's say 23-16 Phins as they continue their resurgence
1*- Colts -3 over Tennessee- Tenny is one of the big surprises of the year, and seems to be tailor made to grind Indy's weak D into submission. I also think Chuck Pagano is an absolutely terrible coach, making games close when he should win and losing games that he has no business to win. So why am I playing them? A healthy Andrew Luck off of a bye. Just a hunch, but I think the Colts score early then hold on. 30-24, Indy.
BOL with all your action, boys. I'll be trying to root in the winners.
GMan
3*- Pats -14 vs 49ers- This is a huge number, and on the road no less. But the Niners are dreadful, the Pats are coming off a tough loss and incredibly, this is the first time Brady has ever returned home to play. The Pats name their number, and after that loss they won't be in a forgiving mood. 41-13, Pats.
2*- Packers Team Total over 24- The good news for gamblers is that even when the Pack stinks (which is increasingly often this year) they never stop trying to score. Amazingly they are becoming a garbage time jewel- either they will right the ship and have to outscore The Skins (winner) or they will have to catch up, which they will not stop trying to do (also potential winner). I'd rather play this than a side, so lets say 31-30 Pack.
2*- Miami -1 1/2 over Rams- this is a trap game all the way. Well, consider me trapped. Goff couldn't beat out Case Keenum, and now the Dolphins are going to make his life as miserable as possible. Their running game alone makes them worthy of a play- let's say 23-16 Phins as they continue their resurgence
1*- Colts -3 over Tennessee- Tenny is one of the big surprises of the year, and seems to be tailor made to grind Indy's weak D into submission. I also think Chuck Pagano is an absolutely terrible coach, making games close when he should win and losing games that he has no business to win. So why am I playing them? A healthy Andrew Luck off of a bye. Just a hunch, but I think the Colts score early then hold on. 30-24, Indy.
BOL with all your action, boys. I'll be trying to root in the winners.
GMan
Well, I hope people following along got favorable lines- I know I did, winning all 4 (Pats dropped down to 12 1/2, and it turns out I needed that). All that said, for official record keeping we now look like this through 11 weeks:
3*- 6-5-1, +1.5
2*- 9-7-1, +2.6
1*- 10-3, +6.7
Overall, we are now at 25-15-2, +10.8 units- and a 63% clip that I'll take. Try to get my action in early this week so we can all enjoy a profitable thanksgiving.
GMan
3*- 6-5-1, +1.5
2*- 9-7-1, +2.6
1*- 10-3, +6.7
Overall, we are now at 25-15-2, +10.8 units- and a 63% clip that I'll take. Try to get my action in early this week so we can all enjoy a profitable thanksgiving.
GMan
Alright boys, back early this week since I like some Thanksgiving action- actually my favorite game of the day:
3*- Redskins Team Total over 22- I don't believe in the Dallas defense, and I think the Skins will move the ball regardless of outcome (though I do like that side as well). Consider this a 34-31 Skins OUTRIGHT win
3*- Titans -4 1/2 over Bears- Playing the Titans, laying more than a FG on the road? I must be insane- wait, four words- Matt Barkley, starting QB. He is terrible. Really, really terrible. I don't know if they break 10 points. Easy road win for a surprising Titan squad- 24-13, Titans
2*- Skins +7 over Dallas- I think the Cowboys are ripe for the picking. They can't be that good, can they? Only thing stopping me from making this a 3* play is the craziness of Thanksgiving, and the Cowboys wanting to rub it in as the only game in town. Even if they win it will be a tight shootout. See my first post- 34-31 Skins...
1*- Browns+7 over NYGiants- I hate prosperity, so I have to bet on the Browns every week. I think they will win eventually, could be this week, but can certainly move the ball. 27-23, Giants.
Hope we close out the last quarter of the season strong (If I post anything at all in week 17, they will ALL be small plays ,as that is guesswork where you just try to see who shows up). BOL to everyone and Happy Thanksgiving.
GMan
3*- Redskins Team Total over 22- I don't believe in the Dallas defense, and I think the Skins will move the ball regardless of outcome (though I do like that side as well). Consider this a 34-31 Skins OUTRIGHT win
3*- Titans -4 1/2 over Bears- Playing the Titans, laying more than a FG on the road? I must be insane- wait, four words- Matt Barkley, starting QB. He is terrible. Really, really terrible. I don't know if they break 10 points. Easy road win for a surprising Titan squad- 24-13, Titans
2*- Skins +7 over Dallas- I think the Cowboys are ripe for the picking. They can't be that good, can they? Only thing stopping me from making this a 3* play is the craziness of Thanksgiving, and the Cowboys wanting to rub it in as the only game in town. Even if they win it will be a tight shootout. See my first post- 34-31 Skins...
1*- Browns+7 over NYGiants- I hate prosperity, so I have to bet on the Browns every week. I think they will win eventually, could be this week, but can certainly move the ball. 27-23, Giants.
Hope we close out the last quarter of the season strong (If I post anything at all in week 17, they will ALL be small plays ,as that is guesswork where you just try to see who shows up). BOL to everyone and Happy Thanksgiving.
GMan
