ESPN.com: NFL
Friday, October 22, 2004
Have faith in the heavy favorites
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By Hank Goldberg
ESPN Insider
In-depth game breakdowns, simulations, fantasy projections
I'm having a tough season, but my reasoning has been on the money. My friend out west, El Sicko, says the ball has to bounce your way.
A fumble and a 90-yard return for a touchdown allowed the wrong side (at least for me) to score on Monday night. My advice this week? Don't be thrown off by the lofty trends. There are some distinct trends to support them.
Buffalo is 0-12 against the number following games against the Dolphins. Baltimore is a 6-point favorite in that one.
Philadelphia gives 7½ at Cleveland. The Eagles are 15-1 against the spread in their last 16 regular-season games and have won every game this year by double digits.
Indianapolis is favored by 9 over Jacksonville and why not? The Colts have averaged 32.2 points per game in their last 11 at home. In three drives at Jacksonville earlier this year, Peyton Manning was 14-for-14.
The Rams are 6½-point favorites over Miami at the Dolphins' house, where the Fins are one for their last 12 number-wise.
Unbeaten New England hosts the unbeaten Jets, giving 6½ points. In their last 14 regular-season home games, the Pats' spread record is 12-1-1.
Seattle gives 7 at Arizona having beaten the Cards by a combined 93-16 score in the last three meetings.
Finally, Denver gives up 6½ on Monday Night at Cincinnati. The Bengals have failed to cover in their last nine tries going back to last year. So pick your poison.
Early Picks:
Philadelphia -7½ at Cleveland
San Diego +3½ at Carolina
Denver -6½ at Cincinnati
Friday, October 22, 2004
Have faith in the heavy favorites
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
By Hank Goldberg
ESPN Insider
In-depth game breakdowns, simulations, fantasy projections
I'm having a tough season, but my reasoning has been on the money. My friend out west, El Sicko, says the ball has to bounce your way.
A fumble and a 90-yard return for a touchdown allowed the wrong side (at least for me) to score on Monday night. My advice this week? Don't be thrown off by the lofty trends. There are some distinct trends to support them.
Buffalo is 0-12 against the number following games against the Dolphins. Baltimore is a 6-point favorite in that one.
Philadelphia gives 7½ at Cleveland. The Eagles are 15-1 against the spread in their last 16 regular-season games and have won every game this year by double digits.
Indianapolis is favored by 9 over Jacksonville and why not? The Colts have averaged 32.2 points per game in their last 11 at home. In three drives at Jacksonville earlier this year, Peyton Manning was 14-for-14.
The Rams are 6½-point favorites over Miami at the Dolphins' house, where the Fins are one for their last 12 number-wise.
Unbeaten New England hosts the unbeaten Jets, giving 6½ points. In their last 14 regular-season home games, the Pats' spread record is 12-1-1.
Seattle gives 7 at Arizona having beaten the Cards by a combined 93-16 score in the last three meetings.
Finally, Denver gives up 6½ on Monday Night at Cincinnati. The Bengals have failed to cover in their last nine tries going back to last year. So pick your poison.
Early Picks:
Philadelphia -7½ at Cleveland
San Diego +3½ at Carolina
Denver -6½ at Cincinnati
