German Weekend

[chriscol]

Rec so far this season (pushes recorded as no play)

1. Bundesliga 0 - 0 +0.00 units
2. Bundesliga 0 - 0 +0.00 units
Regionalliga 3 - 1 +1.39 units

Total 3 - 1 +1.39 units

Now it s time for Bundesliga to start.

Friday:

Stuttgart- Schalke: Schalke pk,+0.5 @1.82

It s first vs. 2nd from last season. Stuttgart did not play well in pre-season (but that does not count anyway). in their only serious match they got outplayed by Bayern 0-2. Star striker Gomez is out with injury as well as Cacau is very doubtful. Schalke got all players ready. they played well in league cup with wins over Karlsruhe and at Nürnberg only to loose the final to Bayern 0-1. Although the midfield is new the team seems to be clicking already. it will be very likely a draw, but if there is a winner i like my chances with Schalke.

2. Bundesliga:

St-Pauli- Köln: over 2.5 @1.95

This is based on Köln. They have very good strikers, which have already proven in last test matches and also in the cup-loss last weekend that they are dangerous and very hard to stop. On defense Köln is struggeling at the moment a bit as they are playing with almost a complete new defensive line. Therefoe also St.Pauli knows that their chance is going to offense. They cannot keep Köln from scoring by only defending.
Night game at st.pauli should be exiting as usual and atleast 3 goals (hopefully a Köln win--at least i ll rooting for them-- i am on my way to the game now)

BOL to all

 

[rolltide]

GL Chris ... I'm not a big fan of overs in week 1 but any thoughts on Hannover/HSV over 2.5 at 2.00+? They've gone over in 4 of the last 5 meetings in Hannover.

hope for a good season out of Koln...last year was a real disappointment

 

[fhmesq44]

Chris,

Not to sound ungrateful here, but is there any way you can get your plays up the day before the game? Being on the west coast many of the games are off by the time I wake up. Thanks in advance.

 

[rolltide]

well if Schalke holds on at 2-2 looks like you bet the winner and skipped the loser

 

[fhmesq44]

well if Schalke holds on at 2-2 looks like you bet the winner and skipped the loser

yeah, hopefully they hold on. missed a bunch of winners last weekend though

 

[winbet]

yeah, hopefully they hold on. missed a bunch of winners last weekend though

Your not alone :toast:

 

[chriscol]

1-1 yesterday...Köln won..i just woke up after lots of party yesterday on Hamburg s "Reeperbahn" :toast:


Starting with Regionalliga:

Saturday

Regionalliga Nord:

Wuppertal- DÜsseldorf: under 2.5 @ 1.89

Match between 2 high profiled clubs in this league.both are off a good start and both teams are basing their success on defense: Wuppertal played 2-1,1-0 and in between a 1-1 in Cup (which i played and won the under), while Dsseldorf started with a 1-0,0-0 against teams with similar strength as Wuppertal...defense will be the name of the game for both.

Regionalliga Süd:

Oggersheim- Burghausen: Burghausen -0.5 @ 1.98

i said before that Oggersheim, just promoted from 4th division, as not yet adjusted to Regioanlliga. So far they have lost 0-2 at home and 0-3 away and sittting in the bottom of the standings. no goals scored and still problems on defense. i ll ride this "fade" until i see improvement.
Burghausen with one game so far winning 1-0 away. last week they brought Bayern München in the cup to a penalty shoot out. they are very motivated right now and definetely one of the top teams in the league.

Regensburg- Elversberg: Regensburg -0.5 @1.95 !! 2 units!!

Regensburg is seen a a midfield team by most. but i think they can be the big surprise of the season and play with the top teams. they are now in 2nd season in this league and have adjusted very well last year. Budget is up and so is the early form. A 2-1 home win followed by a 3-1 away win over one of the top teams Stuttgarter Kickers.
Elversberg meanwhile is off to a terrible start: they folloed a 0-2 away loss with a 1-5 home loss. the defense is terrible so far and should have big problems again today in an away match to a confident and "scoring" Regensburg.


1. Liga to come in probably the next 30 min.

For you guys on the westcoast..sorry i try to post as early as possible, but it will be usualy the morning/afternoon (here in Germnay) before the games. it s always the time i ve looked at the game and where i have all the papers and news together that i usually use for capping. capping games too early in football can be dangerous if you misss any teams news.

 

[chriscol]

1. Bundesliga

München- Rostock: Over 3 @1.90

everybody is picking München has the "only" fav to win the Bundesliga. so do I, but nlaying 2 goals (at the moment it s at 1.75 but on the move), is too risky in football in any of the top leagues. Even with Rostock just promoted from 2. Bundesliga, they have nothing to loose and will play an inspired game.
Luca Toni will not start for München, but as seen in all league-cup macthes so far (wins over Schalke, Stuttgart and Bremen) München got a high powering offense, but certainly some issues on defense. I am not saying that tey will tranform in a REAL-type team, but they will definetely try to outscore opposition more than playing from solid defense. After last season s disappointing results all the blockbuster transfers with Ribery, Klose, Toni etc. were aimed to have more entertainong and offensive playing style. Therefore i ll probably play a lot of overs this season with Bayern.
For this game there are two ways i see this game. Either Bayern is dominating and will probably score at least 3 by themselves or it will be a bit tighter and Rostock will score. As i expect no matter what a München straight up win that would lead also to at least 3 goals.
Therfore the total is the much better option compared to the side and the play for this game.

Leverkusen- Cottbus : Leverkusen -1 @ 1.90

Leverkusen should play for uefa-cup spots again. They have improved on offense with top-score from last season Gekas and on defense with young national-team defender Sinkiewitz.
I am picking Cottbus as one of 4 or 5 teams definetely struggeling against relegation. They lost their top 2 players in midfield, who led them thru the last season and did not fill the gap.
Both teams have started with cup losses to Regionalliga teams last weekend, so not much to read into that.
I simply think Levekusen the much better team, playing at home should be well suited for a nice home win.

Bochum- Bremen: No play

Just some info: Bremen is missing several players all over the team, but especially midfield and defense (a total of 6 players of regualr starting team is out). Bochum lost some key players and would at full strength be the weaker team. But they usually be able to hang with the better teams at home. i will just watch as i have too many ??? on both teams.

... more to come..

 

[chriscol]

Hannover- Hamburg: Hamburg pk @2.04

Both teams have high hopes for the season. usually they are not fullfilled in Hannover and although i pick them to play between 7 and 9th spot i cant see more. They have right now big injury problems especially on defense. Hamburg will be playing full strength and has already won some competive games in ui-cup and last week s cup.
i see this as a very tight match in which both teams main goal will be not to loose. it will be safety first, but if either team will win i like my chance with Hamburg to get to a solid start.

rolltide:
i dont like the over, although it can happen with an early goal in this derby-type match.
if you look at the recent macthups they were last season 0-0 (at Hann) and 0-0 (at Ham), 2-1 (in Han) and 1-1 (at Hamb) in 05/06 and 2-1 (at Han) and 0-2 (at Ham) in 04/05..this is not exactly flying over..to say that is higher scoring Hannover s also doubtful in my opinion. what you really see from the past results is, as said in my write-up, it will be very close and probably a 1-1 or 0-0 type of game.
i just dont play the under for the factor of derby and it could open with an early goal.

Frankfurt- Berlin: Frankfurt pk,-0.5 @1.90

it s a tough to pick game as both teams are definetely fading material. Frankfurt is not playing well and after are surprising strecth got in deep relegation trouble towards the end of last season..i expect similar thinks here. they have big injury concerns on offense (basically the only striker Takahara got injured yesterday).
Berlin is in a total rebuild. they exchanged almost whole the team, filled it with young inexpereinced players. They got a highly touted coach from swiss, but it s already rumors spreadin that he asked themanagement for resignation (even before the first game). He hass officially stated in an interview that "the team is not ready to play, yet, as it is. The club has moved itself in a very dangerous position with all these player moves. we might be up for a big struggle for the first weeks of the season"... do i have to say more...that s a coach speaking with confidnce about his team..therfore it s Frankfurt or a pass.

Wolfsburg- Bielefeld: Wolfsburg -0.5 @2.22 !! 2 units!!

Wolfsburg has put a lot of money into making a push at least to the top 6 teams. i am not sure if this will work out but they should be up for a good season. Magath has taking over as coach and Manager and is running a big project. Bielefeld has injury concern, especially on offense. although always a dangerous team their main strange is at home. away they are often not brave enough and give points away. I expect he same today vs. a better Wolfsburg team, which should be highly motivated for this home game after the off-season trades.

BOL to all

 

[chriscol]

shit, i lost my write up. so here a little shorter version. if you have questions go ahead.

sunday

2. Bundesliga

Paderborn- Offenbach: Paderborn -0.5 @2.22

Paderborn a solid team, especially at home. they own series with Offenbach. Offenbach is one of the teams which will play vs. relegation whole season. They had already big problems in pre-season and last weeks cup win over a lower league team wont change that.

Augsburg- München: München pk,+0.5 @ 1.97 and over 2.5 @ 2.03

Big bavarian derby. until last season München own that derby. they are the bigger and more traditionalo club. it s always regarded an upset when they lose this match.
Last season they lost 0-3 to Augsburg, which was such a shock that they immediately sacked their coach. so much to the importance for münchen.
Players talking already about extra motivation because of that loss.
Overall teams are very similar strength..maybe München a bit stronger.
Goals should come as both want to win this derby and lots of offense expected.

Mainz- Koblenz: Mainz -0.5 @ 1.98

Although mainz has some injries, they are coming from 1.liga and should be the better team here especially at home. it could be close, but i ll always take the better team playing at home at these odds. They even sold more season tickets than last season n 1.Liga. so expect they ususal strong home support.

1.Liga up later

BOL

 

[joeyfitzclick]

Took your Mainz play. Good luck.

 

[chriscol]

i am adding

Hoffenheim- Wehen: Hoffenheim -0.5 @2.10

BOL to all

 

[chriscol]

looking good so far with the münchen over already a winner.

1. Bundesliga

Dortmund- Duisburg: over 2.5 @ 1.80

Dortmund should be better than last year. Coach doll is starting his first season after taking over in 2nd half last year. He plays usually an offensive style and from all you can hear he is quite satisfied with the setup he now has and the way the players already adjusted to the new offensive style.
Problem for Dortmund right now will be on defense, which was already shown in cup win last week.
Duisburg coming up from 2.Liga has also big issues on defense. that should lead to a nice over her.

Nürnberg- Karlsruhe: Nürnberg -0.5,-1 @ 1.97

Nürnberg played a surprising good season last year. now they add to the team some solid players and are looking to a good start. Karlsruhe coming up from 2.Liga is on paper the weekest team in league together with Duisburg. It s a tough task for them to have first game away at Nürberg..should be a home win.

BOL to all

 

[JohnMolson]

anything on mondays game Chris???

 

[chriscol]

I like Kaiserslautern more than Gladbach, but will probably not have it as an official play. i also lean towards the under...Gladbach should struggle to score without Neuville (injured).