German Weekend

[chriscol]

Friday

1. Bundesliga

Stuttgart- Berlin: Stuttgrat -0.5,-1 @ 1.95

Stuttgart is on a hot streak right now. a young team playing great football is scoring at will right now.
Berlin on the other hand is (as in the past) a completely different team without Basturk and he is out again today. they are coming of 3 straight losses and are especially weak in away games.

Regionalliga Süd:

Kaiserslutern- Wehen: Wehen -0.5,-1 @1.96

First vs. last. simple as that. Wehen is by far the dominant team in the league. Kaiserlautern only with 7 draws so far. they have NO wins this season and are dead last in the standings. only risk factor here is that it is the first game after a very long winterbreak (no games since over 2 month), but Wehen is clearly the pick.

BOL to all

 

[MarkieMark+]

Like I said in danlin's thread, doesn't the line on a high flying Stuttgart side playing at home seem a little too generous. I am seeing +118 (-1) at Olympic.

It looks even more suspicious when you look at laying -141 (+1) on a struggling Hertha side that have been outscored 10-3 in their last 4 games.

It looks like a trap to me so I took Hertha (+1).


Good Luck
MM

 

[MarkieMark+]

The line on Stuttgart has jumped to (-1) +126 at Olympic even though I have seen tons of people on them.

Any opinions out there on what is going on?

I might take a little more Hertha (+1).

 

[rhinooooo]

MM, I'm agreeing with you here. I've had Stuttgart-1 as one of my leans for a couple days now. I don't think the line is far off. Chriscol made some good points about Hertha, especially missing Basturk. I've read Stuttgart are missing one key player. Other than that, they're fully fit. Hertha's away record is pretty poor, they've lost alot of games by more than one goal. But, they are still a reasonable 6th in the table, and they drew 2-2 at home to Stuttgart earlier in the season, so maybe that's had some bearing on the line being low.

As for the rise in odds to +126. I wouldn't treat it as too disturbing. An hour before the game, alot of money is coming in. From my experiences, and reading those of others the odds moves aren't significant. More significant is the line actually moving. So if the line moved from -1 to -0.75 or -1.25 then there is some info we'd most probably be missing.

The disturbing thing for me, is like you said... Alot of people seem to be on Stuttgart.

 

[MarkieMark+]

The line at Olympic was changed to Stuttgart (-0.5) -149 and then quickly went to (-0.5) -143.

Looks like there is money coming in on Hertha. I'm in for 3 Units, which is a fairly large play for me.

 

[MarkieMark+]

Just added another unit on Hertha (+0.5) +120

 

[HPark1]

Watched Stuttgart's passed couple games, team is flying at the moment. Great confidence and team spirit.

I'm going to try the Over. Stuttgart's offense is clicking and I think they'll get caught out at least once. They were very fortunate not to have conceded against Frankfurt last week and only one to Werder the week prior.

Lean to Stuttgart but haven't seen enough of Hertha to make a sound decision.

 

[rhinooooo]

Damn... that's a big change.

Might just be coincidental, but Wednesday night Derby played Stoke. The line opened and stayed at Derby-0.75 at around -110 until an hour or two before the game. Changed to Derby-0.5 at +100. Derby lost 2-0. Though, the first goal was a penalty.

I'm not brave enough to bet on Hertha so I'm skipping the game. Good luck to you both.

 

[colton]

Just for your info: 3 of the most important players are probably not playing for Stuttgart: Pardo received his fifth yellow card last week, da silva is questionable and Meira, their most important player in defense is out due to an injury. With such 3 crucial players out the line is a joke, but the reason is the public is just talking about gomez and nobody sees how important these 3 players are. I would wait till gametime if da silva is playing. With pardo already out this would be a major blow.

Besides that: Don't know if the streak will end tonight and highly doubt it against such an incosistent team like Hertha, but Stuttgart is playing already the whole season way above their head and what goes up will come down to earth. Just take a look at Bremen. And i can not imagine Stuttgart being at the end in front of Bremen. Bremen is the much better team. And don't forget that Stuttgart has the youngest team in the league.



cheers,

colton

 

[MarkieMark+]

Stuttgart vs. Hertha ....... 0-0 DRAW Full Time

Sorry chriscol but I had a funny feeling about that generous line on Stuttgart at home.

 

[chriscol]

two loosers yesterday...that happens. lets go on for saturday

early game

Regionalliga Süd:

Elversberg- Hoffenheim: Hoffenheim -0.5 @ 2.04

1. Bundesliga to come in about 20 minutes

 

[chriscol]

1. Bundesliga

München- Wolfsburg: Wolfsburg +1,+1.5 @ 1.87 and over 2.5 @1.85

München is still struggeling. although they played ok in the 2-3 defeat at Real they are still not out of their crisis. Even if they win (which is always possible at home) they are not putting teams dominantly away. Another factor that should keep the game close is that they will be tired after the Real match (physically and mentally). That comes usually into play if not everything is going accoring to plan.
Wolfsburg as i stated before is playing a much more offensive style of football since they got Marcelinho during the winter breeak. they are not afraid of anyone and the late comeback vs. Schalke last week should give them confidence. All games since the winter break ended 2-2 or 3-2...so lot s of scoring expected on both sides. Therfore the over is a must play in one Wolfsburg goal should be enough to get the cover on the side.

Hannover- Dortmund: Hannover -0.5,pk @ 1.83 and over 2.5 @ 2.5

Hannover is one of the best teams right now. They are absolutely dangerous from free-kicks and corner right now and have some kind of a run in these situations. they won 4 of 5 games after the break and coming of a big away win at Leverkusen.
Dortmund meanwhile is struggeling and although i like them usually more in away games than at home i dont see them matching Hannover s form right n ow. i just hope they score a goal to get the over

Hamburg- Frankfurt: Hamburg -0.5,-1 @1.91

That looks even more a trap than yesterday s Stuttgart match.
Hamburg suddenly produces results under new coach Steevens, coming of a 3-0 home win vs. Dortmund and a 2-0 away win at Dortmund. Frankfurt on the other hand is struggeling and finds itself suddenly in relegation trouble. i am not sure the team fully understood the situation yet which is always dangerous. Hostory of Hamburg home games vs. Frankfurt is also pointing to Hamburg (last Frankfurt win 8 years ago)...everything looks so easy. So i need to be part of it, but just for 1 unit

Bochum- Aachen: Bochum -0.5 @2.03

One of the strongest on the board for me today.
Bpth teams are in relegation struggle , but Bochum is playing much improved footbal since the break, after a 0-0 at Bayern they lost last home game vs. Nürnberg (a game they were dominating), just to come back with an impressive away win at Bielefeld last week. They are full of confidence and playing their best football of the season right now.
Aachen lost 6 in a row before last weeks surprising win over München. But i still think that was a fluke win. They are always big time motivated at home vs. Bayern (they beat them already in the cup) and if you look at that game, bayern should still have won it.
Today there will be no extra motivation and the normal relegation start will fight again. Going with the home team here.

BOL to all

 

[chriscol]

Rec so far this year after saturday (pushes recorded as no play)

1. Bundesliga 58 - 53 +3.551 units
2. Bundesliga 31 - 29 + 2.924 units
Regionalliga 39 - 23 +17.04 units

Total 128 - 105 +23.515 units

 

[themadactuarian]

Rec so far this year after saturday (pushes recorded as no play)

1. Bundesliga 58 - 53 +3.551 units
2. Bundesliga 31 - 29 + 2.924 units
Regionalliga 39 - 23 +17.04 units

Total 128 - 105 +23.515 units

I am very impressed.

MA

 

[chriscol]

Sunday

2. Bundesliga

Augsburg- Karlsruhe: over 2,2.5 @ 1.85 !! 2 units!!

Augsburg is always playing well against the better teams. They are coming off a 2-2 at Rostock and are very confident right now. Karlsruhe is on the top of the standings now, but they are not as dominant as before right now. Although trying to play more on defense they are conceiding goals at the moment..for today s match the coach announced to play more offensively than in recent games. As they are always scoring and Augsburg should also get on the board at home..that s my top play for 2. Liga today

Freiburg- Aue: under 2.5 @ 1.90

two solid teams, which are basing their success on solid defense. that s all you need to know.

dont play Kaiserslautern: the team has the flue and a lot of players out. if you can get Haching for +1 that might be a play.

1. Bundesliga to come later

BOL to all

 

[chriscol]

positive start so far..a split with the big play going easyly over and the other game getting totally out of control (5-4)

1, Bundesliga

Schalke- Leverkusen: Leverkusen +0.5,+1 @ 2.05

i got a feeling that Schalke will struggle today. They got a last minutes equalizer last week after being almost sure of the away win. that could have stopped the run a bit.also they have big injury problems today with Varela and Löwenkranz getting injured and Lincoln questionable.
Leverkusen is a solid team although playing incosistant this year. Besides a 4-7 loss at Schalke last year they are alway playing good here. They score 3 or more goals in 4 of last 5 away games at Schalke.
i ll wait for an update on Lincoln (next 10 minutes). if he plays i ll go with the over, too. otherwise the offensive game of Schalke will struggle.

BOL to all

 

[chriscol]

Lincoln will play and Schalke is still playing with it s usual 4-3-3

so i am going

Schalke- Leverkusen over 2.5,3 @ 1.89

BOL to all