German Weekend

[chriscol]

Now the real fun start with Bundesliga

Rec so far this season (pushes rec as no play):

1. Bundesliga 0 - 0 +0.00 units
2. Bundesliga 0 - 0 +0.00 units
Regionalliga 2 - 4 -0.825 units

Total 2 - 4 -0.825 units

Friday:

1. Bundesliga

München - Dortmund: Dortmund +1 @ 1.83

Opening match of the season: Bayern Munich is struggeling at the moment and thru pre-season due to many factors: They had to rebuild the team, after the loss of Ballack and a couple of other players. The World-Cup players are in training just since 2 weeks and as shown in the pre-season league-cup tournament not yet 100% fit. Bayern played in that tournament 0-0 vs. Schalke and lost 0-2 in the final to Bremen. Last friendly match was a 0-3 loss in a derby vs. 2nd league club 1860 Munich on tuesday.
Key players which are new to the team are Podolski on offense and van Buyten in defenses. Therefore i expect a very strong defense this year from Munich..on offense and midfield they have to find the leader who can take over from ballack. As the pre-season result have shown they are struggeling on this end.
Dortmund meanwhile got a solid group of players together and they should be well prepared to manage the loss of Koller and Rosidsky this season. They had a good pre-season and could be somewhat of a surprise this year. i expect them to finish around 4th to 7th place.

In today's match i expect bayern to take a more conservative approach. From all you can hear from the club they are confident that they will get stronger the longer the season last and they looking in the beginning to just not loose any ground. So i expect them today to play defense first, being satisfied with a draw and if they win for what reason ever it s fine.(A draw would not be treated as but they will definetely not run over Dortmund. Dortmund should be confident enough to see a chance in tonight s match and stay in it.

BOL to all

 

[metallica]

good luck chriscol

 

[rolltide]

nice writeup though I think Bayern wins a narrow one here

 

[rolltide]

Dynamo Dresden @1.71 (-140 pinnacle) looks good for a small/med. Still early in year but Dynamo were one of the favorites to promote while Ahlen were expected in lower 1/3 of table.

 

[quantumleap]

Good luck this year chris. I look forward to reading your write-ups and betting on the German leagues.

:toast:

 

[chriscol]

sorry i have no time for write ups today, but going to play a golf tourney and already a bit in a hurry.

here the plays

1. Bundesliga

Leverkusen- Aaachen: Leverkusen -1 @ 1.80 !! 2 units!!
soild preseason and very solid team vs. a newcomer in the league

Gladbach- Cottbus: Cottbus +1 @ 1.83
Gladbach has trouble within the team

Hamburg - Bielefeld: Under 2.5,3 @ 1.95
Still no real striker for hamburg (as vs. ossasuna) vs. a defenseive minded team

Regionalliga Nord

Dresden - Ahlen: Dresden -0.5 @ 1.71
See comment by rolltide

BOL to all

 

[chriscol]

very solid day yesterday and the big play hitting again.

Sunday:

Regionalliga Nord:

Union Berlin - Wilhelmshaven: Union Berlin -0.5 @ 1.80 !! 2 units!!

it s a bit unusual that i ve so many big plays early in the season, but i feel really having an edge in the early games, especially in the lower leagues as the linemakers have not yet adjusted.
Both teams have promoted from 4th league to regionalliga, but are in a complete different situation.
Union Berlin has a big tradition. they were often champion of eastern germany in the former East germany" and played after that long time in the bundesliga and 2. Bundesliga, before getting in some financial trouble. Now they are finally back again in a decent league-level. They have a very strong fan base supporting them everywhere and from the financial budget aim to go straight to 2. Bundesliga, which i think they will have a shot.
They started with a great 3-0 win in a derby over hertha berlin which proved they will be a team to content.
Wilhelmshaven is a complete different story. They are they first time ever in regionalliga and see this as a big adventure. they will struggle from the start on against relegation and will be way outclassed by most of the teams.they have started already with two losses in the season (last loss was a home loss to Hertha on tuesday, the team Union defeated the week before 3-0).
Home advantage for the much,much better team. line is just so low, because both teams coming up from lower league, but we will not see these kind of lines with union in 3 or 4 weeks.

Regionalliga Süd:

Kaiserslautern- Stuttgarter Kickers: Stuttgart pk,-0.5 @ 1.92

Another mismatch here. Stuttgart one of the preason favourites for promotion got of to a grat start with 2 solid win. Kaiserslautern will play against relegation the whole year and is coming off a home draw and away loss so far.


2. Bundesliga:

No plays for me here today. It s the first match-day and i first have to see the teams. from what i can see lines are all pretty spot on.

1. Bundesliga

Hannover - Bremen: Bremen -0.5 @ 1.92

everybody expects bremen to win and i will join in. They played already a great preason league cup with wins over Hamburg and München. Their offense with Klose is already clicking.
Big story for the match is a last minute transfer on wednesday of nation-team defender Mertesacker from Hannover to Bremen. That will strengthen Bremens defense which was the weak part for them last season.
For Hannover the trade spells trouble. They have now an untested defense due to the late trade and they received in exchange another Bremen defender, who til the last minute said he does not want to play for Hannover. That s not good news if you face the best offense in the league.

BOL to all

 

[chriscol]

great opening weekend with bundesliga and my first day-sweep of the year on sunday

Rec so far this season after this weekend (pushes rec as no play):

1. Bundesliga 3 - 2 +1.47 units
2. Bundesliga 0 - 0 +0.00 units
Regionalliga 5 - 4 +2.405 units

Total 8 - 6 +3.875 units

see you all next week