German Soccer (Nov. 18-20)

[Bumipol]

Hi Folks,


here is what I like for this weekend:


2* Bayern München -0,5/-1 -110 (Pinnacle)

I hate to be on the public side and this has to be a public pick, but I simply don't see anything other than a Bayern victory. Stuttgart comes into München as the first place team. This will be additional motivation for Bayern as they feel almost insulted by this fact. Stuttgart made some nice moves in the off-season and have a young team with a good perspective. But they are definitely not a first place team. Them being in first place is simply the result of a lot of parity in the league, some lucky results and a soft schedule. When the season is over you will find Stuttgart between 5th and 8th place and they will be shown their limits this weekend.


2* Alem. Aachen +1 -125 (Pinnacle)

Now here is one that goes against the public which I like much better. Main reason for this pick is next Wednesdays CL match between Werder and Chelsea. This game will be so huge for Bremen that I can easily see them overlook Aachen. Bremen will do everything to reach the next CL round surviving a tough group with Chelsea and Barca in it. Even if they won't admit it I'm sure all their focus is on that huge game already. I wouldn't even be surprised if they rested some key players tomorrow. So I expect this Bundesliga clash to be much closer than many expect. I wouldn't even be surprised to see Aachen win this game but believe to have somewhat more value with +1. I'd be very surprised if this game turns out to be a blowout.


2* FC Augsburg +112 (Pinnacle)

Bavarian derby in which Augsburg is the superior team. The line is off imo as many bookies have this game around -125. Also a revenge spot for Augsburg as Burghausen eliminated them from the national Cup winning here earlier in the year. However that was at a time when Augsburg had not adjusted yet to the league and was struggling. They have had some fine results lately especially at home and should win this game as well.


2* RW Essen pk/-0,5 +103 (Pinnacle)

New coach for Essen should mean added motivation. Also Aue is one of the weakest away teams in the league at 1-1-4 and this might easily be a letdown spot for them as they come off two big wins at Köln and in the derby at home against Jena. With the support of their always impressive home crowd I like Essen's chances.


Those will be my only picks as I see no value in any of the Regionalliga Games or in any of the totals.

Good luck to everyone!



YTD: 4-4
1*: 3-0
2*: 1-4
$: -2*

 

[Bumipol]

Quick analysis of the games we played:

Bayern won fairly easy, even though unfortunately only by one goal. Stuttgart didn't seriously threaten to tie it up at any time.

Aachen game went as expected, they lead twice and the Bremen 2-2 equalizer was even very questionable as it should have been disallowed because of a Klose foul preceding it.

Augsburg dominated for 90 minutes and could have easily won higher. They actually should have won at least 2-0 but were robbed of a goal when the ball had clearly crossed the goalline but the referee didn't see it.

Essen was the only lost bet this weekend and they didn't show the kind of performance that I expected. However this game also was heavily influenced by the referee as Essen dominated the first 20 minutes, then had one of their players sent off for allegedly hitting an Aue player with the elbow. I saw several replays of the incident and could not see a hit or anything else that would have required a red card.

As a side note I have to say that the performances of the German referees this season can only be described as disastrous. Along with the three aforementioned games the games in Bochum, Cottbus, Nürnberg and Jena were also overshadowed and heavily influenced by several unbelievably bad calls. And unfortunately this weekend is not an exception.

Back next week with more picks!



YTD: 7-5
1*: 3-0
2*: 4-5
$: +2,75*