Hello Everyone,
after following this forum for several month I have decided to jump in and join the excellent handicappers on this site. Since I live in Germany, I follow German Soccer (Bundesliga 1+2, Regionalliga) very closely and have bet it regularly for many years. Hopefully I can provide some useful information for other players.
As far as my picks are concerned they will be rated 1* through 5* (or units if you want) with the majority of plays in the 2* and 3* range. I use Pinnacle, Betcris, Betfair, Gamebookers and Interwetten and will use American Pricing in my threads.
Here are my picks for this weekend:
2* Hamburger SV -133 (Interwetten)
This line was -122 yesterday and unfortunately I missed to bet it earlier. However I will still bet it at -133, but wouldn't recommend it for even lower odds. The reasoning in this game is simple. We have two struggling teams with Hamburg still the far better imo. Hamburg has played some decent games lately but were unfortunate with the results. They were the better team Tuesday in Stuttgart, were denied a penalty in this game and suffered an unlucky loss when they were beaten by two late goals.
Unlike many losing teams this team is backing their coach (Doll) and insists that they don't want to lose him under any circumstances. They will face a Mönchengladbach squad that has lost not only four games in a row, but every road game this season. They have severe injury problem, a coach (Heynckes) who's personal decisions have been very questionable lately and haven't shown any quality or confidence in the past month. They couldn't even beat the Osnabrück Regionalliga Team in the German Pokal.
The odds are not great but I have to believe this is just the kind of weak opponent for Hamburg to get a much needed home victory.
2* VfL Wolfsburg -107 (Pinnacle)
Even though I don't consider Wolfsburg a very strong team you can't deny the fact that they have put together a 4-game winning streak which has boosted their confidence after a very slow start. One may argue that all the wins were by one goal and against not exactly strong opponents, but on the other hand they have also beaten Bayern Munich at home already. Midfielder Krzynowek and German National Team Striker Mike Hanke are putting things together and they have the leagues best defense with only 10 goals allowed in 11 games.
On the other hand you have Cottbus, a team that imho is one of the three weakest in the league. They've had a very respectable start with an inspired team effort and probably some other teams underestimating them, but they will definitely come down to earth pretty soon and fight to avoid relegation for the entire season. Their home loss to Frankfurt on Wednesday may well be a sign of their surprise run coming to an end.
This should be a very defensive minded and low scoring game so a 0-0 or 1-1 is certainly a possibility, but I don't see Cottbus winning this game and against a home team on a winning streak these odds simply seem too high to me.
2* Kickers Offenbach pk/+0,5 -105 (Pinnacle)
Another line I should have bet earlier as it was +106 yesterday. Same as Hamburg I think it still provides value, but I wouldn't bet it any lower.
Bottom line here is that you have two weak teams where I find it extremely difficult to even point out a favorite. Obviously you would normally consider the home team to be favored and it probably has to be, but home field has never been much of an advantage for Burghausen as they have often times been much better on the road than at home due to there style of play. In 5 home games this year they have not won yet, while they already have two away wins.
I believe this game to be almost a coin flip with an Offenbach away victory certainly not out of the question which is why I see value in this Asian Handicap.
1* SC Freiburg Draw +230 (Betfair)
I'm very careful when betting draws in Soccer, especially early in the season, which is why this will only be a 1* pick. However this looks like a good spot to me.
When betting draws I always ask myself two question (and sometimes many more):
1. Will both teams be satisfied with the draw? That doesn't mean do I expect them to come in with the desire of a draw, it rather means will one of the teams be pushing for a win if it should be tied late in the game or will they both rather secure one point.
2. Do both teams have enough offense to come back in case they fall behind?
I believe in this game both answers are yes. Both teams will be satisfied with a draw if the game should develop that way, which I believe it will. Köln started the season as the heavy league favorite, but is in a bit of disarray right now after a losing streak that led to the firing of their coach. Their first goal will be to stop the bleeding and not lose again and they will be fully satisfied with one point.
I believe the same will ultimately be true for Freiburg. Even though they probably come into the game trying to take advantage of the current Köln weakness, they should still have enough respect for their opponent that this doesn't feel like a must win for them.
Both teams are also capable of coming back should they fall behind. Köln is fourth in the league with 18 goals scored and while Freiburg has only scored 13 goals, they have enough quality players on offense to score at home.
Add to all this the fact that Freiburg certainly isn't a strong home team and has even struggled at home against weak teams like Braunschweig or Unterhaching while Köln is a team with lots of trouble at the moment fully satisfied not to lose again and you have imo a game that will draw at least 1 out of 3 times which is enough to give us a value bet.
2* FC Ingolstadt 04 +120 (Pinnacle)
The odds on this game are all over the place. While Interwetten and Gamebookers have it at -133, Pinnacle as well as Betfair offer +120. Obviously this is a huge difference that I have no explanation for.
Unless there is some inside information that I'm not aware of, I feel that the -133 is much closer to the truth than the +120, which is why I intend to take advantage of it.
Let's look at those two teams heading in completely opposite directions. Darmstadt won 2 out of their first 3 games this season, than proceeded to lose 8 of their next 11. Somewhere during that stretch they brought in a new coach which very often will at least create short term positive results. Not in this case though as they continued to lose their first two games under the new coach by scores of 1-3 and 1-5, both at home, both against opponents that have to be considered mediocre at best. After a scoreless draw at the leagues bottom team they finally won a game again two days ago without impressing anybody. This team has played poorly all year and shows no signs of any major improvement even though they got another W this week.
On the other hand you have Ingolstadt, the best team out of those promoted to the league before this season which is currently in a very respectable 5th place in the league standings. One might argue that they are weak at home with a home record of only 2-1-4, but you have to realize that they lost their first three home games probably not having adjusted yet to the new league and have gone 2-1-1 since with the loss coming against the leagues most dominant team Hoffenheim.
So to sum it up you have the 5th place team playing at home against the 16th place team that has only won twice in their last 12 games. The +120 odds offered in the above mentioned shops looks like good value to me as I easily see a 50% chance of success and probably more.
As I mentioned before such a discrepancy in the odds between different bookies is very rare and may be a sign of some insider news that I'm not aware of. If somebody has additional info on this game, please let me know.
2* Wuppertaler SV +100 (Interwetten)
Another case of two teams going in opposite directions. Wuppertal is currenty leader of Regionalliga Nord and the best home team at 5-2-0. They've beaten several quality teams at home (Dresden, St. Pauli, Bremen) and are pushing strongly for promotion to Bundesliga 2.
Union Berlin, which was promoted into this league before the season, is in a respectable 10th place and has a winning record of 6-3-5. However you need to know that they started the year with 6 wins in their first 9 games and were in first place for several weeks. They have now lost 4 games in a row and seem to be running out of gas.
Under those circumstances I will gladly take +100 in a game that should be around -140 imo.
I'll finish with two totals, both are 1* plays:
1* Bayer Leverkusen over 2,5 -120 (Pinnacle)
This matchup has a history of overs having gone over 4 years in a row with up to 7 goals in those matches. Bayern München will be eager to show a good performance after Wednesdays embarrasing home loss to Hannover. It is also worth to note that while their home games have been low scoring, they have gone over in 4 of their 5 road games. Leverkusen has been solid lately and has not been hald scoreless in their last 13 consecutive home games dating back to December 2004.
1* RW Erfurt under 2,5 -125 (Interwetten)
Matchup of two strong defenses. Both teams have allowed an average of less than 1 goal per game while themselves also only scoring about 1 goal per game. Both have consequently gone over only about one third of their games. Expect another low scoring affair when these teams match up against each other.
That will do it for this weekend. I hope my thoughts have been helpful. Any responses are appreciated.
after following this forum for several month I have decided to jump in and join the excellent handicappers on this site. Since I live in Germany, I follow German Soccer (Bundesliga 1+2, Regionalliga) very closely and have bet it regularly for many years. Hopefully I can provide some useful information for other players.
As far as my picks are concerned they will be rated 1* through 5* (or units if you want) with the majority of plays in the 2* and 3* range. I use Pinnacle, Betcris, Betfair, Gamebookers and Interwetten and will use American Pricing in my threads.
Here are my picks for this weekend:
2* Hamburger SV -133 (Interwetten)
This line was -122 yesterday and unfortunately I missed to bet it earlier. However I will still bet it at -133, but wouldn't recommend it for even lower odds. The reasoning in this game is simple. We have two struggling teams with Hamburg still the far better imo. Hamburg has played some decent games lately but were unfortunate with the results. They were the better team Tuesday in Stuttgart, were denied a penalty in this game and suffered an unlucky loss when they were beaten by two late goals.
Unlike many losing teams this team is backing their coach (Doll) and insists that they don't want to lose him under any circumstances. They will face a Mönchengladbach squad that has lost not only four games in a row, but every road game this season. They have severe injury problem, a coach (Heynckes) who's personal decisions have been very questionable lately and haven't shown any quality or confidence in the past month. They couldn't even beat the Osnabrück Regionalliga Team in the German Pokal.
The odds are not great but I have to believe this is just the kind of weak opponent for Hamburg to get a much needed home victory.
2* VfL Wolfsburg -107 (Pinnacle)
Even though I don't consider Wolfsburg a very strong team you can't deny the fact that they have put together a 4-game winning streak which has boosted their confidence after a very slow start. One may argue that all the wins were by one goal and against not exactly strong opponents, but on the other hand they have also beaten Bayern Munich at home already. Midfielder Krzynowek and German National Team Striker Mike Hanke are putting things together and they have the leagues best defense with only 10 goals allowed in 11 games.
On the other hand you have Cottbus, a team that imho is one of the three weakest in the league. They've had a very respectable start with an inspired team effort and probably some other teams underestimating them, but they will definitely come down to earth pretty soon and fight to avoid relegation for the entire season. Their home loss to Frankfurt on Wednesday may well be a sign of their surprise run coming to an end.
This should be a very defensive minded and low scoring game so a 0-0 or 1-1 is certainly a possibility, but I don't see Cottbus winning this game and against a home team on a winning streak these odds simply seem too high to me.
2* Kickers Offenbach pk/+0,5 -105 (Pinnacle)
Another line I should have bet earlier as it was +106 yesterday. Same as Hamburg I think it still provides value, but I wouldn't bet it any lower.
Bottom line here is that you have two weak teams where I find it extremely difficult to even point out a favorite. Obviously you would normally consider the home team to be favored and it probably has to be, but home field has never been much of an advantage for Burghausen as they have often times been much better on the road than at home due to there style of play. In 5 home games this year they have not won yet, while they already have two away wins.
I believe this game to be almost a coin flip with an Offenbach away victory certainly not out of the question which is why I see value in this Asian Handicap.
1* SC Freiburg Draw +230 (Betfair)
I'm very careful when betting draws in Soccer, especially early in the season, which is why this will only be a 1* pick. However this looks like a good spot to me.
When betting draws I always ask myself two question (and sometimes many more):
1. Will both teams be satisfied with the draw? That doesn't mean do I expect them to come in with the desire of a draw, it rather means will one of the teams be pushing for a win if it should be tied late in the game or will they both rather secure one point.
2. Do both teams have enough offense to come back in case they fall behind?
I believe in this game both answers are yes. Both teams will be satisfied with a draw if the game should develop that way, which I believe it will. Köln started the season as the heavy league favorite, but is in a bit of disarray right now after a losing streak that led to the firing of their coach. Their first goal will be to stop the bleeding and not lose again and they will be fully satisfied with one point.
I believe the same will ultimately be true for Freiburg. Even though they probably come into the game trying to take advantage of the current Köln weakness, they should still have enough respect for their opponent that this doesn't feel like a must win for them.
Both teams are also capable of coming back should they fall behind. Köln is fourth in the league with 18 goals scored and while Freiburg has only scored 13 goals, they have enough quality players on offense to score at home.
Add to all this the fact that Freiburg certainly isn't a strong home team and has even struggled at home against weak teams like Braunschweig or Unterhaching while Köln is a team with lots of trouble at the moment fully satisfied not to lose again and you have imo a game that will draw at least 1 out of 3 times which is enough to give us a value bet.
2* FC Ingolstadt 04 +120 (Pinnacle)
The odds on this game are all over the place. While Interwetten and Gamebookers have it at -133, Pinnacle as well as Betfair offer +120. Obviously this is a huge difference that I have no explanation for.
Unless there is some inside information that I'm not aware of, I feel that the -133 is much closer to the truth than the +120, which is why I intend to take advantage of it.
Let's look at those two teams heading in completely opposite directions. Darmstadt won 2 out of their first 3 games this season, than proceeded to lose 8 of their next 11. Somewhere during that stretch they brought in a new coach which very often will at least create short term positive results. Not in this case though as they continued to lose their first two games under the new coach by scores of 1-3 and 1-5, both at home, both against opponents that have to be considered mediocre at best. After a scoreless draw at the leagues bottom team they finally won a game again two days ago without impressing anybody. This team has played poorly all year and shows no signs of any major improvement even though they got another W this week.
On the other hand you have Ingolstadt, the best team out of those promoted to the league before this season which is currently in a very respectable 5th place in the league standings. One might argue that they are weak at home with a home record of only 2-1-4, but you have to realize that they lost their first three home games probably not having adjusted yet to the new league and have gone 2-1-1 since with the loss coming against the leagues most dominant team Hoffenheim.
So to sum it up you have the 5th place team playing at home against the 16th place team that has only won twice in their last 12 games. The +120 odds offered in the above mentioned shops looks like good value to me as I easily see a 50% chance of success and probably more.
As I mentioned before such a discrepancy in the odds between different bookies is very rare and may be a sign of some insider news that I'm not aware of. If somebody has additional info on this game, please let me know.
2* Wuppertaler SV +100 (Interwetten)
Another case of two teams going in opposite directions. Wuppertal is currenty leader of Regionalliga Nord and the best home team at 5-2-0. They've beaten several quality teams at home (Dresden, St. Pauli, Bremen) and are pushing strongly for promotion to Bundesliga 2.
Union Berlin, which was promoted into this league before the season, is in a respectable 10th place and has a winning record of 6-3-5. However you need to know that they started the year with 6 wins in their first 9 games and were in first place for several weeks. They have now lost 4 games in a row and seem to be running out of gas.
Under those circumstances I will gladly take +100 in a game that should be around -140 imo.
I'll finish with two totals, both are 1* plays:
1* Bayer Leverkusen over 2,5 -120 (Pinnacle)
This matchup has a history of overs having gone over 4 years in a row with up to 7 goals in those matches. Bayern München will be eager to show a good performance after Wednesdays embarrasing home loss to Hannover. It is also worth to note that while their home games have been low scoring, they have gone over in 4 of their 5 road games. Leverkusen has been solid lately and has not been hald scoreless in their last 13 consecutive home games dating back to December 2004.
1* RW Erfurt under 2,5 -125 (Interwetten)
Matchup of two strong defenses. Both teams have allowed an average of less than 1 goal per game while themselves also only scoring about 1 goal per game. Both have consequently gone over only about one third of their games. Expect another low scoring affair when these teams match up against each other.
That will do it for this weekend. I hope my thoughts have been helpful. Any responses are appreciated.
