Genesis Inviational .......information overload and betting suggestions , DFS opinions to boot

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Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
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Go to link if you want more , I have only c/p a small excerpt


Overview

Designated event season continues as the PGA Tour heads to a popular spot in Riviera Country Club. Hosted by Tiger Woods, players tend to speak highly of Riv and this event, so it's no surprise to see this tournament get that elevated status.

The event started all the way back in the 1920s and for many decades was known as the Los Angeles Open. Genesis is a recent title sponsor of the event, going back to 2017.

Riviera has consistently hosted this tournament since 1973, with gap years in '83 and '98 because the course was hosting the PGA Championship and U.S. Senior Open in those years respectively.

In 2028, Riviera will play host to the Summer Olympics.

image

Given the history and architectural prestige of Riviera, it's no surprise that the world's best golfers were already very excited to show up here before it became elevated this year. Will Zalatoris returns after deciding not to play in Phoenix, which makes for 9 of the top 10 ranked players in the world teeing it up this week.

The overall vibe of L.A. will differ from Phoenix, but the clash of elite golfers is something to look forward to once again.

Additionally, Tiger Woods decided at the end of last week that he would not only host the event but also play in it. This will be Tiger's first start in a non-major event since the 2020 ZOZO Championship.

The Course

Riviera CC tends to play firm and fast. With challenging doglegs, tight fairways, tricky Kikuyu rough and Poa greens, the course really tests all parts of these golfers' games.

The fairways at Riviera are very tough to hit. In 2022, the fairways were hit 49.2 % of the time which was 16.8% below the PGA Tour average. At the same time, the penalty for missing the fairways is not significant–Riviera actually ranked 38th (out of 38) last season in missed fairway penalty.

The greens are also quite difficult to hit, ranking top 5 in terms of lowest Greens-in-Regulation percentage in each of the past three seasons. In 2022, 62.2% of greens were hit which was 6% below the PGA Tour average. This, of course, makes around-the-green play and being able to get up-and-down to save par important.

Once on the greens at Riviera, golfers tend to struggle with putts inside 5 feet, and between 5 and 15 feet, more than they do at most other PGA Tour venues.

Golfers need to take advantage of the three par-5s at Riviera. Particularly the par-5 1st hole, which feels like one that players almost need to at least make birdie on, otherwise they're losing ground to the field.

The length on many of the par-3s and par-4s at Riviera presents a challenge to players. At the same time, the par-4 10th at Riviera proves that shorter holes can be equally as tricky to navigate here.

Altogether, golfers whose games are well-rounded tend to find success around Riviera CC.

Course Snapshot

  • Yards: 7,322 (Par 71)
  • Fairway: Kikuyu
  • Rough: Kikuyu
  • Greens: Poa annua
  • Avg. fairway width: 27 yards
  • Avg. green size: 7,500 sq. ft.
  • Sand Bunkers: 58
  • Water Hazards: 0

Overview

Designated event season continues as the PGA Tour heads to a popular spot in Riviera Country Club. Hosted by Tiger Woods, players tend to speak highly of Riv and this event, so it's no surprise to see this tournament get that elevated status.
The event started all the way back in the 1920s and for many decades was known as the Los Angeles Open. Genesis is a recent title sponsor of the event, going back to 2017.
Riviera has consistently hosted this tournament since 1973, with gap years in '83 and '98 because the course was hosting the PGA Championship and U.S. Senior Open in those years respectively.
In 2028, Riviera will play host to the Summer Olympics.
image

Given the history and architectural prestige of Riviera, it's no surprise that the world's best golfers were already very excited to show up here before it became elevated this year. Will Zalatoris returns after deciding not to play in Phoenix, which makes for 9 of the top 10 ranked players in the world teeing it up this week.
The overall vibe of L.A. will differ from Phoenix, but the clash of elite golfers is something to look forward to once again.
Additionally, Tiger Woods decided at the end of last week that he would not only host the event but also play in it. This will be Tiger's first start in a non-major event since the 2020 ZOZO Championship.

The Course

Riviera CC tends to play firm and fast. With challenging doglegs, tight fairways, tricky Kikuyu rough and Poa greens, the course really tests all parts of these golfers' games.
The fairways at Riviera are very tough to hit. In 2022, the fairways were hit 49.2 % of the time which was 16.8% below the PGA Tour average. At the same time, the penalty for missing the fairways is not significant–Riviera actually ranked 38th (out of 38) last season in missed fairway penalty.
The greens are also quite difficult to hit, ranking top 5 in terms of lowest Greens-in-Regulation percentage in each of the past three seasons. In 2022, 62.2% of greens were hit which was 6% below the PGA Tour average. This, of course, makes around-the-green play and being able to get up-and-down to save par important.
Once on the greens at Riviera, golfers tend to struggle with putts inside 5 feet, and between 5 and 15 feet, more than they do at most other PGA Tour venues.
Golfers need to take advantage of the three par-5s at Riviera. Particularly the par-5 1st hole, which feels like one that players almost need to at least make birdie on, otherwise they're losing ground to the field.
The length on many of the par-3s and par-4s at Riviera presents a challenge to players. At the same time, the par-4 10th at Riviera proves that shorter holes can be equally as tricky to navigate here.
Altogether, golfers whose games are well-rounded tend to find success around Riviera CC.
Course Snapshot
  • Yards: 7,322 (Par 71)
  • Fairway: Kikuyu
  • Rough: Kikuyu
  • Greens: Poa annua
  • Avg. fairway width: 27 yards
  • Avg. green size: 7,500 sq. ft.
  • Sand Bunkers: 58
  • Water Hazards: 0
 

Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
Joined
Jan 4, 2005
Messages
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Golfers With Great Course/Event History​

The best strokes gained averages among golfers who have played at least twice here over the past five years (a "-" indicates a did-not-play situation):

- Viktor Hovland (+2.50): 4th, 5th, -, -, -
- Max Homa (+2.07): 10th, 1st, 5th, 37th, -
- Adam Scott (+1.72): 4th, 38th, 1st, 7th, 53rd
- Tony Finau (+1.72): 33rd, 2nd, 51st, 15th, 2nd
- Jon Rahm (+1.69): 21st, 5th, 17th, 9th, -
- Wyndham Clark (+1.67): -, 8th, 17th, -, -
- Xander Schauffele (+1.67): 13th, 15th, 23rd, 15th, 9th
- Patrick Cantlay (+1.62): 33rd, 15th, 17th, 15th, 4th
- Collin Morikawa (+1.58): 2nd, 43rd, 26th, -, -
- Rory McIlroy (+1.50): 10th, MC, 5th, 4th, 20th
- Justin Thomas (+1.48): 6th, MC, MC, 2nd, 9th
- Ryan Moore (+1.45): -, -, 30th, 28th, 9th
- Maverick McNealy (+1.45): 7th, MC, -, -, -
- Matthew Fitzpatrick (+1.42): -, 5th, 30th, -, -

Past winners in the field include Max Homa, Adam Scott (2005 and 2020), J.B. Holmes (2019), and James Hahn (2015).

Five of the past nine winners -- and a slew of others -- are playing on the LIV Tour now.

Win Simulations for The Genesis Invitational​

Here are the most likely winners this week, according to my win simulation model, as well as their golf betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.


( Category headings that got cut off)
cat.png

Rory
McIlroy
$11,900 10.4% 36.8% 89.5% +1000
Jon
Rahm
$12,200 9.6% 45.0% 85.5% +700
Scottie
Scheffler
$12,100 7.3% 38.1% 85.8% +1000
Xander
Schauffele
$11,700 4.8% 35.3% 85.2% +1400
Tony
Finau
$11,400 4.5% 33.9% 84.8% +1800
Patrick
Cantlay
$10,700 3.1% 23.9% 78.8% +2600
Justin
Thomas
$11,600 3.0% 23.0% 78.9% +1500
Cameron
Young
$10,400 2.8% 20.7% 70.0% +3100
Will
Zalatoris
$10,500 2.7% 24.5% 76.6% +3400
Sungjae
Im
$11,000 2.6% 21.6% 74.6% +2400
Collin
Morikawa
$11,100 2.5% 18.4% 68.5% +2100
Sam
Burns
$10,600 2.2% 19.4% 68.6% +3000
Max
Homa
$11,300 2.1% 21.7% 77.5% +2000
Viktor
Hovland
$10,800 1.8% 19.0% 72.1% +2600
Jason
Day
$10,200 1.7% 15.8% 65.7% +3700
Matt
Fitzpatrick
$10,000 1.7% 19.0% 74.4% +3700
Jordan
Spieth
$10,900 1.4% 14.3% 68.6% +2900
Keegan
Bradley
$9,700 1.3% 14.7% 67.4% +6500
Tyrrell
Hatton
$9,900 1.3% 14.2% 70.7% +4500
Tom
Kim
$10,300 1.2% 16.3% 71.8% +3700
Taylor
Montgomery
$9,400 1.2% 15.5% 70.5% +6500
Justin
Rose
$9,800 1.1% 11.9% 63.4% +6500
Adam
Scott
$9,700 1.0% 10.2% 58.4% +5500
Sahith
Theegala
$9,600 1.0% 11.3% 60.8% +7500
Seamus
Power
$9,300 0.9% 10.0% 63.4% +9500
Alex
Noren
$9,000 0.9% 12.8% 69.6% +11000
Adam
Hadwin
$9,200 0.7% 9.2% 60.1% +10000
Hideki
Matsuyama
$10,100 0.7% 9.5% 65.3% +3700
Brian
Harman
$9,000 0.7% 11.2% 67.0% +12000
Beau
Hossler
$8,700 0.7% 7.8% 55.2% +14000
Kurt
Kitayama
$8,900 0.7% 10.2% 58.0% +12000
Brendan
Steele
$8,400 0.7% 7.3% 54.0% +19000
Scott
Stallings
$8,600 0.7% 9.1% 61.6% +16000
Si
Woo
Kim
$9,400 0.7% 8.1% 59.5% +9500
Keith
Mitchell
$9,100 0.6% 8.8% 63.5% +10000
Corey
Conners
$9,600 0.6% 9.5% 65.9% +8000
J.J.
Spaun
$8,400 0.5% 7.9% 55.8% +17000
Tommy
Fleetwood
$9,300 0.5% 9.2% 63.7% +9500
J.T.
Poston
$8,800 0.5% 7.9% 62.5% +14000
Thomas
Detry
$8,500 0.5% 7.1% 53.8% +17000
Wyndham
Clark
$9,500 0.5% 7.9% 59.7% +8000
Lucas
Herbert
$8,600 0.5% 7.5% 59.4% +14000
Kyoung-hoon
Lee
$9,000 0.5% 7.0% 61.4% +11000
Nick
Hardy
$8,100 0.5% 6.5% 52.7% +28000
Davis
Riley
$8,300 0.5% 5.7% 50.9% +21000

Win Simulation Analysis and Best Bets for The Genesis Invitational​

Although Rory McIlroy (+1000) was the biggest disappointment of the three favorites last week (along with Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler), his odds lengthened for this week, and he's now a betting value while it's Rahm who is noticeably overvalued. I'm done trying to suggest fading Rahm even if the odds are too short because he's always in striking distance.
Scheffler is a bit overvalued after his near-runaway win last week at Phoenix. Of the three, it's Rory who gets the nod this week on the betting card when we want to pick a favorite.
Beyond that, things are tough. Patrick Cantlay (+2600) and Will Zalatoris (+3400) are close to showing value, as is long-shot Keegan Bradley (+6500).
I'll update this with top-10 and my actual outrights once we get that market and we see some movement.

Daily Fantasy Golfer Picks for The Genesis Invitational​

All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds. Putting surface splits also come from FantasyNational and include the past 50 rounds when possible -- unless noted. References to my combo model refer to a combination of long-term, field-adjusted form, key stat performance, and hole-by-hole-level strokes gained data.

Best of the Best​

Rory McIlroy (FanDuel Salary: $11,900 | Golf betting odds: +1000) - The big three are all viable this week, and we're just going to be experiencing a lot of weeks where we have numerous great options at the top of the salary pool. This week, I'm again going with McIlroy to anchor lineups because he's the best combination of stats, form, and salary. He also ought to be less popular than he deserves to be after Scheffler and Rahm were all over coverage to end last week's event. McIlroy ranks first in strokes gained: off the tee and is ninth in approach. He also combines to rank ninth in short game over the past 50 rounds.
Patrick Cantlay ($10,700 | +2600) - This week, a more balanced lineup has appeal, and that's in part because we have so many strong options in the $10,000 range. Cantlay missed the cut on the number last week at the WM Phoenix Open while driving it well and putting it well, too. The irons were okay; the wedges were where he lost too much ground. We can probably get a lot of popularity leverage this week on the guy who ranks 13th in strokes gained: tee to green and 7th in strokes gained: putting over the past 50 rounds.
Others to Consider:
Xander Schauffele ($11,700 | +1400) -
Top-25 in all four strokes gained stats; great pivot from Rory, Rahm, Scheffler.
Tony Finau ($11,400 | +1800) - Stats model loves him; without a lot in the $9K range, we can get top-heavy.
Will Zalatoris ($10,500 | +3400) - MC'd the Farmers in his last start; great fit here and T26 or better in two straight at Riv.
Cameron Young ($10,400 | +3100) - Super long off the tee and T2 here last year; weak short game held him back last week.

Mid-Range Picks​

Tyrrell Hatton ($9,900 | +4500) - I have to be honest. I don't really love the $9,000 range. I think we lose a lot of win juice after Hatton and Matt Fitzpatrick ($10,000). With so many good names at the top of the salary pool, I'm willing to get a little more top-heavy as a result. But Hatton lingered in Phoenix last week due to great irons and driver play to finish T6. With any help from the short game, he could've firmly been in the hunt. Both he and Fitzpatrick are great anchors to balanced lineups.
Tommy Fleetwood ($9,300 | +9500) - Fleetwood missed the cut last week at the WM Phoenix Open despite gaining strokes with the approach play, and he picked up a lot of distance. He ended 2022 with some great worldwide results. He's 16th in approach over the past 50 rounds and has made both cuts at Riviera in his career. He's a fine low-end mid-range play, a tier without much to love.
Others to Consider:
Matt Fitzpatrick ($10,000 | +3700) -
Added distance will help this week; irons are cooling off but can scramble his way up the board.
Keegan Bradley ($9,800 | +6500) - Still golfing well; T20 last week; consistently gains with irons at Riv.
Taylor Montgomery ($9,400 | +6500) - Has the distance and putting to find success here.

Low-Salaried Picks​

Brian Harman ($9,000 | +12000) - The salary stayed put at $9,000 for Harman after a T42 last week at the WM Phoenix Open. He's now lost strokes from his approach play in three straight events but still ranks 23rd in that stat over the past 50 rounds anyway. The long-term ball-striking is pretty strong (26th) for the salary.
Lucas Herbert ($8,600 | +14000) - There's at least a little win equity behind Herbert, according to my simulations, and he's a great putter with plus distance off the tee. He enters with four top-25s in his past five worldwide starts. The lone exception: T50 at the WM Phoenix Open last week. The profile suggests being able to grind his way to pars, which will help at Riviera. Herbert is one of the best course fits in the field, via datagolf.
Others to Consider:
Kyoung-Hoon Lee ($9,000 | +12000) -
Super balanced profile and top-26 here in three of the past four seasons, too.
J.T. Poston ($8,800 | +14000) - Strong form entering if we ignore a missed cut at WMPO.
Alex Smalley ($8,300 | +21000) - Irons are good; putted well on these greens last year in his debut.
Andrew Putnam ($8,300 | +21000) - Trending down in salary due to consecutive missed cuts; long-term profile build on short game.




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Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
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A parlay for Friday's round

golf parlay.png
 

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