Being a lifelong Browns fan, I tend not to bet their games since I usually can't make an objective judgement. The only times I bet on or against them is when I think there is a clear error in the line...like last year when they got 8.5 points in the Burgh in the playoffs, that was an easy call considering they'd only lost to the Steelers by 3 points both times they played them. In the Browns' 1999 expansion year, the Super Bowl favorite Rams were favored by 19 over the Browns and I pounded the Rams for what turned out to be an easy cover. I also took the Browns getting a TD at San Fran this year and they won outright. I can usually judge the pulse of the Brownies pretty well...and I think this is one of those weeks I'm going to bet on their game.
This week would be a good week to play the Browns +6 if you can find it...on the money line for 1 unit too. So far, they've beaten the Raiders and Steelers while losing to the Bengals and Chargers. They tend to play up or down to their competition, and this week I think they'll play up to it. They're 3-4 right now and do not want to go into the bye week under .500.
For whatever reason, the Browns are a much better team on the road than at home. Last year they finished with a 9-7 regular season record, but were 6-2 on the road (an NFL best if I'm not mistaken) and only 3-5 at home. That trend is continuing so far this season...2-1 on the road, but only 1-3 at home.
Courtney Brown has finally emerged from his cocoon and Gerard Warren is getting good push in the middle...and our 2nd year linebacking corp rounds into form. The Pats don't have a premier RB who can run all over us...so I think we'll do a pretty decent job of limiting the Pats running game.
The weak points of NE are the OL; 5th round rookie starting center, UDFA in about 3rd year starting at RT, and at LG (very average Andruzzi starting). The other two spots are very strong with Matt Light at LT and Damien Woody at RG (moved from C when the RG got hurt). There are some weak spots here that can be taken advantage of...and I think Courtney Brown will get a couple of sacks this week.
This game is sandwiched in between two important games for the Pats...couple that with some injuries, and I think the Browns are going to win outright...