Season 53-65 ( includes Thursday win on Rams).
Sunday.
Minnesota +2.5 over Detroit
Minnesota ML +110
The Phrase " They're NOT Who They Think They Are" must be in the mind of the Vikings.
Favored early in September vs Detroit by 7 points and not covering sure tells me that the public is backing the Lions now in this rematch.
With Detroit winning 4 of 5 SU as dog and covering all 5 as a dog has dropped the price significantly. The one loss was to Buffalo in the Dome by 3 points.
But - Now the Viking are getting 2.5 from a team that is still negative by 1 point in season average scoring.
Take the last 5 games though - and they have scored 142 points. An average pf 28.5. They are giving up 20 per game. That's a vast improvement.
But against winners they were out gained in both games. The Giants helped them win with 3 NY turnovers and Buffalo beat them in the Dome.
The best team today is still the Vikings and getting +2.5 doesn't make sense for the Odds to flip 9 points from the first game.
That kind of shift is usually from a starting QB being out. Thats not the case today.
Play Vikings
Browns +5.5 over Bengals
Browns ML +200
Burrows is on a 0-5 run against CLE. Browns have Cincy's number as they say.
Cleveland did NOT score an Offensive TD last week against Low-octane Houston. But that means the only way to go is UP this week.
Watson was not good in his first game back and I dont like the guy because of all the charges against him, but his passing accuracy was way off last week. He threw at least 10 passes that would have all been completions - except they were way short or way long to open receivers. A full week of practice will likely fix that.
Cincy and Burrows has NOT Covered the spread the week AFTER playing KC. They are 0-3!
That tells me that when they win a big matchup, they are burned out the following week.
Play CLE
Steelers ML -125 over Baltimore.
Take away Ravens QB and all of a sudden anyone can win today.
Steelers have had some breaks lately playing Atlanta and the Colts winning both. Before that they battled Cincy but losing a37-30.
Before Cincy they held the Saints to 10 pts, ATL to 16 and Colts to17.
They may not have a good offense, but they are playing defense right now as good as anyone.
The Ravens have only scored 13 pts or less in 3 of the last 4 games/ That offense is definitely broke right now.
Could be a ,low scoring game so-
ML on Pitt is the best play.
Giants +7 over Eagles.
Divison game. Home Field and recent common opponent give The G-Men the edge against the sread.
Washington battled Philly and beat Philly SU 31-22 as a 10.5 point dog IN Philly!
Granted that the Eagles had 4 of the 6 turnovers in that game but Washington had 2.
Washington held Philly to their season low in yardage. Holding them to 264 total yards - well below Philly average of 389!
Im not sure that the Giants can win this, but the spread is far to big to pass up.
Play Giants
Jets +10 over Bills.
I have the Jets +9.5 in Parlays bet early this week.
Would consider a LIVE bet on Buffalo if the Jets score early to bring it down under 4.
A ML play is the only way to bet Buffalo if this line drops - and a reasonable ML is available.like -200 or less.
Last time they met Oct 30th, Bills lost 20-17 at NY.
Since then Buffalo has held one opponent to under their season average (17Pts Per Game.
They've allowed Vikings 33 in Buffalo, CLE23@ Det, DET 25 @Det, and 10 to NE @ NE.
Those 3 games are all far above the Bills defensive season average.
Thats also 3 straight road games and 4 of the last 5 before today.
Looking for dominating defensive game with the Bills seems unlikely, as noted above. .
Should be close game with Jets being a solid 4-2 in road games SU this year.
Buffalo played 3 straight ROAD games in eleven(11) days.
Important to note: The Bills have had 10 days rest to get ready for the Jets but the Bills defense is soft now..
I think Buffalo wins, but not by much.
Play Jets +10.
Tennessee -3.5 over J'Ville.
In the playoff hunt is Tennessee with a 7-5 record. No letdown in home game today.
Titans were embarrassed last week in Philly getting buried 35-10.
Jags have given up 38, 27 and 40 points in the last 3 road games.
Titans defense will help cover this.
Play Tennessee.
Houston +18 over Dallas.
In state rivalry. No way Cowboys cover this number.
Houston has not allowed over 38 points all season. If they get to 20 then they cover.
Dallas scored 54 points last week agains Bustout Colts.
Matt Ryan gave Dallas 5 free touchdowns in that mess on turnovers.
As bad as Houston is, they wont play that bad.
Play Houston +18.
Chargers +3.5 over Miami.
Miami has not covered any road game ATS this year since beating Baltimore in week 2.
They played at Cincy, Jets, DET, CHI and San Fran.
Play Chargers.
Carolina +4.5 over Seattle..
VaGeno Smith has another easy team to beat.
Low scoring game likely, but Panthers dont have a solid QB, he plays for the Rams now.
Darnold wont do much as he passed for 160 yds last week.
Panthers defense has been great allowing only 15,13 and 10 in theist three games.
They are also on a three game win streak ATS.
Small play. Carolina +4.5.
Tampa +4 (-120) over San Fran.
Tampa ML +155
Brady has Evans and Jones back.
.SF starting new QB will never score much on the Tampa defense allowing only 18 points per game.
Forget the SF win over Miami last week, the Dolphins had 4 turnovers.
Play Tampa.
