********G-Mans NFL Divisional Plays*******

[G-Man!]

Will post all sides and write ups later-

Saturday
KC vs Jags

Philly -7.5 over Giants.
Play Philly.

Sunday
Bills -3.5 vs. Bengals

SF vs Dallas.
Only issue with SF is that they played 4 games against teams with a winning record. Miami, Chargers and Seattle and KC.. (Also, they were gifted 4 turnovers by Miami but only out yarded the Phins by 40- total yards). Three were eliminated in the playoffs.

Dallas played in arguably the BEST division this year and went 4-2.
Seattle, Rams and Arizona went very good...helping SF to a 6-0 division record.
Take away the 4 games with AZ, and Rams and the SF stats change.
Public reads all about the Philly defense but Dallas is just as good.
Could be a low scoring game.
The SF defense against KC was vacant getting beat 44-23.

Most of the teams vs SF were bottom dwellers in their divisions. or near the bottom.
They played the Bears, Saints, Washington, Atlanta, Carolina and the Raiders just to name 6 out of division opponents.

 

[Loves2kickass]

Will post all sides and write ups later-

Saturday
KC vs Jags

Philly -7.5 over Giants.
Play Philly.

Sunday
Bills -3.5 vs. Bengals

SF vs Dallas.
Only issue with SF is that they played 4 games against teams with a winning record. Miami, Chargers and Seattle and KC.. (Also, they were gifted 4 turnovers by Miami but only out yarded the Phins by 40- total yards). Three were eliminated in the playoffs.

Dallas played in arguably the BEST division this year and went 4-2.
Seattle, Rams and Arizona went very good...helping SF to a 6-0 division record.
Take away the 4 games with AZ, and Rams and the SF stats change.
Public reads all about the Philly defense but Dallas is just as good.
Could be a low scoring game.
The SF defense against KC was vacant getting beat 44-23.

Most of the teams vs SF were bottom dwellers in their divisions. or near the bottom.
They played the Bears, Saints, Washington, Atlanta, Carolina and the Raiders just to name 6 out of division opponents.

Based on Sagarin

SF 32nd sos and Dallas 28th sos. Not much difference there. Those are also final ratings, not the strength or weakness of the teams played at the time they played them.

SF was 1-1 vs top 10 rated teams, 3-1 vs 11th-16th rated teams and 10-3 vs 17th-32nd rated teams.

DALL was 2-3 vs top 10 rated teams, 1-0 vs 11th-16th rated teams and 9-2 vs 17th-32nd rated teams.

SF was actually better against higher rated teams and they both beat up on the bottom feeders.

On a final note Purdy has started 7 games and only once did the 49ers score less than 33 points. Since week 13 the 49ers have scored 33, 35, 21, 37, 37, 38, 41 for an average of 35 ppg. Average defensive overall rank of those 7 opponents is 17th, about middle of the pack in the NFL. Not great or bad defensive teams.

In a nutshell.....No advantage for Dallas based on what you mentioned, IF that's what you were insinuating. GL to you this weekend.

 

[Loves2kickass]

On another note since you mentioned SF only outgained Miami by 40 yards on offense. As you mentioned SF turned Miami over 4 times. When a team does that they are playing typically on a short field on offense which limits offensive yards gained. Also one of those turnovers was a defensive score which also limits SF offense on the field. Finally, turnovers usually aren't gifted to a team they're caused by the defense in several ways (defensive pressure, scheme etc). GL

 

[BigLouReturns]

Funny how you think yards gained is much more important than turnovers.

 

[vinnyvegas]

Funny how you think yards gained is much more important than turnovers.

Typically, normally, majority of time...TOs decide games or whoever wins TO +/- WINS...don't tell Jags that vs LAC

Just saying...predict who wins TO battle and you've got yourself a winner. BOL

 

[G-Man!]

On another note since you mentioned SF only outgained Miami by 40 yards on offense. As you mentioned SF turned Miami over 4 times. When a team does that they are playing typically on a short field on offense which limits offensive yards gained. Also one of those turnovers was a defensive score which also limits SF offense on the field. Finally, turnovers usually aren't gifted to a team they're caused by the defense in several ways (defensive pressure, scheme etc). GL

Sagarin means nothing in regards to pointspreads. Not interested in ffeedback by you ro lou . Post your plays and in your own threads.

Based on Sagarin

SF 32nd sos and Dallas 28th sos. Not much difference there. Those are also final ratings, not the strength or weakness of the teams played at the time they played them.

SF was 1-1 vs top 10 rated teams, 3-1 vs 11th-16th rated teams and 10-3 vs 17th-32nd rated teams.

DALL was 2-3 vs top 10 rated teams, 1-0 vs 11th-16th rated teams and 9-2 vs 17th-32nd rated teams.

SF was actually better against higher rated teams and they both beat up on the bottom feeders.

On a final note Purdy has started 7 games and only once did the 49ers score less than 33 points. Since week 13 the 49ers have scored 33, 35, 21, 37, 37, 38, 41 for an average of 35 ppg. Average defensive overall rank of those 7 opponents is 17th, about middle of the pack in the NFL. Not great or bad defensive teams.

In a nutshell.....No advantage for Dallas based on what you mentioned, IF that's what you were insinuating. GL to you this weekend.

Sagarin means nothing in regards to pointspreads. They're as useless as POWER Ratings -Not to be confused with statistical rankings.

Not interested in feedback by you or Mr. Lou or others who just bash without plays themselves. . Post your plays in your own threads.

Nothing posted in my thread is based on some useless rating systems.
Anyone who would just laugh at facts on a write up with outcomes that validated predictions with explanations doesn't understand what the advantages are.

You can share your dialog and opinion with Lou and others that are a bunch of trolls.
At one time I thought you were interested in sharing data -but you ended that thought by joining up with the trolls.

 

[BigLouReturns]

Turnovers negate yardage. The fact that you dont understand the importance of turnovers, especially in the postseason, is why your record is what it is. I noticed you didnt update it this week.

 

[cashflow50]

Ok shots have been fired. Nuff already.

 

[Loves2kickass]

Sagarin means nothing in regards to pointspreads. Not interested in ffeedback by you ro lou . Post your plays and in your own threads. Nothing post in my thread is

Sagarin means nothing in regards to pointspreads. They're as useless as POWER Ratings -Not to be confused with statistical rankings.

Not interested in feedback by you or Mr. Lou or others who just bash without plays themselves. . Post your plays and in your own threads.

Nothing posted in my thread is based on some useless rating systems.
Anyone who would just laugh at facts on a write up with outcomes that validated predictions with explanations doesn't understand what the advantages are.
You can share your dialog and opinion with Lou and others that are a bunch of trolls.
At one time I thought you were interested in sharing data -but you ended that thought by joining up with the trolls.

Sagarin is useless? Oh ok ? so where do you get your info...ESPN? LOL. I do post plays sir. I was 2-0 in the Wild Card round. The same round you were 0-8. I believe i just shared data and facts with you. Isn't that what the forum is for? You post a writeup and others are allowed to give their opinion based on facts and stats. You're unwilling to listen and learn and that's ok. GL

 

[BigLouReturns]

Last week the Bengals had 234 total yards on offense compared to Baltimore who finished with 364. Who is playing in the divisional round this week, Baltimore or Cincinnati?

 

[exploited17]

Turnovers negate yardage. The fact that you dont understand the importance of turnovers, especially in the postseason, is why your record is what it is. I noticed you didnt update it this week.

Never heard so much whining and criticism because someone lost from someone whith a losing record too scared to post a play even though they know it all

 

[G-Man!]

Sagarin is useless? Oh ok ? so where do you get your info...ESPN? LOL. I do post plays sir. I was 2-0 in the Wild Card round. The same round you were 0-8. I believe i just shared info and facts with you. You're unwilling to listen and learn and that's ok. GL

What are the Sagarin Pointspread factors to justify their ratings?


Bashing others isnt sharing info.
Starting threads to bash someone's capping factors isnt sharing info.
Jumping in threads with capping explanations/theories and bashing the read isnt sharing info.
Records are records. Problem is bashers never have any.
Current runs are bashed when winning seasons prevail.
There isnt one poster here who was bashed by me who posts plays and his records and had a record, that I would bash him for doing it. If he bashed me than I would bash him back. But not on a stand alone record for what that poster produces.. What the point. Nealy everyone here has lost.

So when someone has an advantage and posts season long winning results the bashers try to discredit the results by using other outcomes just to sound like they are so smart. Ive posed for years on other forums. Left then for similar reason that are going on here.

"Bury The Book" was one of the best in the Business back in 96. It had national radio broadcasts. Many of us were involved then and prodeced winning results for years without losing seasons. Best part was No one on those sites bashed anyone.

People like you and others are what ruins sites like this.
Sagarin has no track record of being a productive handicapper that post plays with winning records. If so, where is the newsletter plays or his won-loss-record?

Many outlets have rating systems .. The starting point every year is wrong to be reliable. Its just a guessing point with no way of being true with player changes coming or leaving each year.
Post plays for the season in Bases and College foots and NFL and lets see what the three sports produce.

GL this week.

 

[Loves2kickass]

What are the Sagarin Pointspread factors to justify their ratings?


Bashing others isnt sharing info.
Starting threads to bash someone's capping factors isnt sharing info.
Jumping in threads with capping explanations/theories and bashing the read isnt sharing info.
Records are records. Problem is bashers never have any.
Current runs are bashed when winning seasons prevail.
There isnt one poster here who was bashed by me who posts plays and his records bits he had a record and did that I would bash him for doing it. Not on a stand alone record for what that poster produces.. What the point. Nealy everyone here has lost.

So when someone has an advantage and posts season long winning results the bashers try to discredit the results by using other outcomes just to sound like they are so smart. Ive posed for years on other forums. Left then for similar reason that are going on here. "Bury The Book" was one of the best in the Business back in 96. It had national radio broadcasts. Many of us were involved then and prosudeced winning results for years without losing seasons. Best part was No one on those sites bashed anyone.
People like you and others are what ruins sites like this.
Sagarin has no track record of being a productive handicapper that post plays with winning records. If so, where is the newsletter plays or his won-loss-record?

Many outlets have rating systems .. The starting point every year is wrong to be reliable. Its just a guessing point with no way of being true with player changes coming or leaving each year.
Post plays for the season in Bases and College foots and NFL and lets see what the three sports produce.

GL this week.

I didn't bash anyone i just stated data and facts. I used the sagarin strength of schedule info which many, many people use when looking for sos. That's all. Best of luck.

 

[Serbone]

Funny how you think yards gained is much more important than turnovers.

So please post plays this weekend based on turnovers.

You know who will turn the ball over and who will get takeaways, correct? You’re an expert. Help us all.

Thank you!!!

 

[XXII]

The Buffalo Bills are 4-1 when turning the ball over 3x! Thats literally insane . The rest of the league is 12-62.
The Bills are the Best 3rd down team in the NFL.
The Bills are 25-4 in their last 29 games.
They are very tough team to beat. The value may be cinn +5, yet I’m all over the Bills ML.

 

[Loves2kickass]

The Buffalo Bills are 4-1 when turning the ball over 3x! Thats literally insane . The rest of the league is 12-62.
The Bills are the Best 3rd down team in the NFL.
The Bills are 25-4 in their last 29 games.
They are very tough team to beat. The value may be cinn +5, yet I’m all over the Bills ML.

This game should be in Cin btw. Cin was ahead and driving at home when the game ended abruptly. At the very least it should be on a neutral field. Don't think the defending AFC champ Bengals don't feel the same.

 

[XXII]

This game should be in Cin btw. Cin was ahead and driving at home when the game ended abruptly. At the very least it should be on a neutral field. Don't think the defending AFC champ Bengals don't feel the same.

I beg to differ on this one. It was so early in the game. You are correct - IF- and only if Cinn won would it potentially be in Cinn. Had the Bills won, they remain #1 seed and control home field. The difference is Cinn lost to Clev by 20pts. Nobody has blown out the Bills! This is going to GREAT! GL!

 

[Loves2kickass]

I beg to differ on this one. It was so early in the game. You are correct - IF- and only if Cinn won would it potentially be in Cinn. Had the Bills won, they remain #1 seed and control home field. The difference is Cinn lost to Clev by 20pts. Nobody has blown out the Bills! This is going to GREAT! GL!

It was early lol.The difference is Cin lost by 20 in week #8 against Clev? You're talking about a game in week #8. Oh lord, please help some of these peeps. ?

 

[BigLouReturns]

So please post plays this weekend based on turnovers.

You know who will turn the ball over and who will get takeaways, correct? You’re an expert. Help us all.

Thank you!!!

Done.

 

[XXII]

Facts are facts brother! Buffalo is playing better ball right now and at home! Allen far superior than Burrow in the playoffs ! You will see.