January 29th
3:00PM
Eagles -ML -140 over San Fran. (25 units)
I will be adding to the write-ups of my picks as the week goes. Some will be in response to other feedback.
Philly clearly has the best pass defense in the NFL.
SF will have a had time passing in Philly..
McCafferty will be handled much like he was against Dallas. He was held to only 35 yds rushing and e measly 22 yds passing with 6 receptions.
No one on the SF team had more than 51 yds rushing, in perfect weather.
UPDATE> McCafferty is now listed as Questionable as of Wed Jan 25th.
Dallas beat themselves as Dak 'INT' Prescott killed his team again.
SF has collected 12 turnovers in the last 5 games. They have turned over the ball just ONCE!
Rookie Purdy wasn't bad but was held to minimum production. SF was held to its third lowest offensive passing yardage in the games with Purdy starting. Coming to Chilly Philly sure wont help.
Philly has the No.5 ranked offense and the No.3 ranked defense but No.1 against the pass!.
SF brings No.1 ranked defense and No.5 ranked offense.
But much like I wrote in the Dallas game - they played the softest schedule against Playoff teams of all the 4 remaining contenders and in the division with 3 games vs Seattle.
Being held to 19 points at home for SF was not impressive as they looked much like an average team.
Dallas - to the credit off the SF defense, was far worse. But SF had one other low scoring home game by only scoring 13 against the Saints.
The Eagles have only lost 3 games with Hurt (1)/Minshew(2) and the starters playing all year.
Problem is that in the losses, the Eagles had 4 turnovers in 2 games and 3 in the other.
Against Dallas, Minshew had 2 ints and 1 fumble and Phi had 2 fumbles in total
In the game with Washington, Hurt had one int and the team had 3 fumbles.
One other loss was against the Saints. Minshew was the starter for Philly.
With only 6 int's in 460 attemps all season, Hurt is one of the best.
Purdy has 4 ints in 170 attempts.
Eagles pass rush will be the major factor in winning this one.
I gave this reply in another thread that used Miam, Washington and Tampa as reasons to acknowledge SF schedule being hard?.
I made the remark that SF played the softest schedule of the playoff teams.
My Responses to those teams as SF opponents..
• Wash - was a last place team and a negative scoring team with next to 3rd lowest offensive points @ 19pts per game.. League lowest was 17 by several teams.
• Miami had 4 huge turnovers IN SF. They were still close in total yardage. -42.
• Tampa was the ,lowest scoring team in the playoffs of ALL the teams @18pts per game!. They count, but have little to compete with.
• Last point that may be important.
9er's are 3-4 ATS in road games and 1-1 SU against Division winners. Thats what Philly is - a division winner.
Oh - and KC was a HOME game for SF.
SF played only 2 true road gams in their last 11 .
In addition, they played 7 road games against 6 losing teams. Seattle was the only road game against a winning team.
Maybe they'll be playing Mellencamp after the game..".Hurt' So Good"...
Sunday 6:30PM
Bengals +1.5 over Chiefs. (25 Units).
This is the best underdog in 10 years.
First and foremost the most important capping factors, are the three games between these two teams with the starting QB's.
Cincy is 3-0 SU and same 3-0 ats.
Looking at head-to-head games, we have a stat that may surprise many.
In passing yardage Borrow has won all three games
GM 1. .Burrow 415 yds . Mahomes 259
GM 2. Burrow 243 . Mahomes 236
GM 3. Burrow 279 . Mahomes 211
Mahomes' lowest passing games are the last 2 without former WR Hill.
Two (2) games were 3 points apart in final score. One game was 7 points.
All SU wins by Cincy and all as the underdog.
In the most recent game, Cincy suffered in the run game by only rushing for 60 yds. Burrow was very effective and had zero ints.
Mahomes also was effective and had zero ints.
No fumbles by either team as well.
So it comes down to who was better.
The Bengals out yarded KC in 2 games and KC was better in 1 game.
The Bengals Win last week over the Bills was solid in the fact that Burrow was not distracted at all by the weather or being an away game.
In fact, its seems like Cincy thrives on away games. Theyre 7-3 SU and 8-2 ats.
The losses were to Saints, Browns and Dallas.
During those three losses the run game was gone. They went 6 starlight games running way under 100 yds per game.
They had another bad stretch again until they went to Buffalo last week.
Before that game they also had no run game, with 4 straight games under 75 yds.
Last week they were back on top running with 172 yds at Buffalo and passing for 240. Combined for 412 total yards.
If that run game shows up in KC, the Bengals win again.
KC is 8-2 at home.
In the last game against Jags they had a very select passing game. They targeted Kelce 17 times for 14 completions and 98 yds.
Mahomes had a total of 24 completions, so Kelce having 14 shows that they were able easily beat the Jags defense.
Other than the three games with Cincy, KC also played against Buffalo this year.
The game was in KC.
The Chiefs lost 24-20.
My Play was posted On Sunday night.
Line update. (4:45PM Tuesday)
KC now +1.5 or +2.
Mahomes?
UPDATE> Jan 25th. Mahomes listed as "Probable".
3:00PM
Eagles -ML -140 over San Fran. (25 units)
I will be adding to the write-ups of my picks as the week goes. Some will be in response to other feedback.
Philly clearly has the best pass defense in the NFL.
SF will have a had time passing in Philly..
McCafferty will be handled much like he was against Dallas. He was held to only 35 yds rushing and e measly 22 yds passing with 6 receptions.
No one on the SF team had more than 51 yds rushing, in perfect weather.
UPDATE> McCafferty is now listed as Questionable as of Wed Jan 25th.
Dallas beat themselves as Dak 'INT' Prescott killed his team again.
SF has collected 12 turnovers in the last 5 games. They have turned over the ball just ONCE!
Rookie Purdy wasn't bad but was held to minimum production. SF was held to its third lowest offensive passing yardage in the games with Purdy starting. Coming to Chilly Philly sure wont help.
Philly has the No.5 ranked offense and the No.3 ranked defense but No.1 against the pass!.
SF brings No.1 ranked defense and No.5 ranked offense.
But much like I wrote in the Dallas game - they played the softest schedule against Playoff teams of all the 4 remaining contenders and in the division with 3 games vs Seattle.
Being held to 19 points at home for SF was not impressive as they looked much like an average team.
Dallas - to the credit off the SF defense, was far worse. But SF had one other low scoring home game by only scoring 13 against the Saints.
The Eagles have only lost 3 games with Hurt (1)/Minshew(2) and the starters playing all year.
Problem is that in the losses, the Eagles had 4 turnovers in 2 games and 3 in the other.
Against Dallas, Minshew had 2 ints and 1 fumble and Phi had 2 fumbles in total
In the game with Washington, Hurt had one int and the team had 3 fumbles.
One other loss was against the Saints. Minshew was the starter for Philly.
With only 6 int's in 460 attemps all season, Hurt is one of the best.
Purdy has 4 ints in 170 attempts.
Eagles pass rush will be the major factor in winning this one.
I gave this reply in another thread that used Miam, Washington and Tampa as reasons to acknowledge SF schedule being hard?.
I made the remark that SF played the softest schedule of the playoff teams.
My Responses to those teams as SF opponents..
• Wash - was a last place team and a negative scoring team with next to 3rd lowest offensive points @ 19pts per game.. League lowest was 17 by several teams.
• Miami had 4 huge turnovers IN SF. They were still close in total yardage. -42.
• Tampa was the ,lowest scoring team in the playoffs of ALL the teams @18pts per game!. They count, but have little to compete with.
• Last point that may be important.
9er's are 3-4 ATS in road games and 1-1 SU against Division winners. Thats what Philly is - a division winner.
Oh - and KC was a HOME game for SF.
SF played only 2 true road gams in their last 11 .
In addition, they played 7 road games against 6 losing teams. Seattle was the only road game against a winning team.
Maybe they'll be playing Mellencamp after the game..".Hurt' So Good"...
Sunday 6:30PM
Bengals +1.5 over Chiefs. (25 Units).
This is the best underdog in 10 years.
First and foremost the most important capping factors, are the three games between these two teams with the starting QB's.
Cincy is 3-0 SU and same 3-0 ats.
Looking at head-to-head games, we have a stat that may surprise many.
In passing yardage Borrow has won all three games
GM 1. .Burrow 415 yds . Mahomes 259
GM 2. Burrow 243 . Mahomes 236
GM 3. Burrow 279 . Mahomes 211
Mahomes' lowest passing games are the last 2 without former WR Hill.
Two (2) games were 3 points apart in final score. One game was 7 points.
All SU wins by Cincy and all as the underdog.
In the most recent game, Cincy suffered in the run game by only rushing for 60 yds. Burrow was very effective and had zero ints.
Mahomes also was effective and had zero ints.
No fumbles by either team as well.
So it comes down to who was better.
The Bengals out yarded KC in 2 games and KC was better in 1 game.
The Bengals Win last week over the Bills was solid in the fact that Burrow was not distracted at all by the weather or being an away game.
In fact, its seems like Cincy thrives on away games. Theyre 7-3 SU and 8-2 ats.
The losses were to Saints, Browns and Dallas.
During those three losses the run game was gone. They went 6 starlight games running way under 100 yds per game.
They had another bad stretch again until they went to Buffalo last week.
Before that game they also had no run game, with 4 straight games under 75 yds.
Last week they were back on top running with 172 yds at Buffalo and passing for 240. Combined for 412 total yards.
If that run game shows up in KC, the Bengals win again.
KC is 8-2 at home.
In the last game against Jags they had a very select passing game. They targeted Kelce 17 times for 14 completions and 98 yds.
Mahomes had a total of 24 completions, so Kelce having 14 shows that they were able easily beat the Jags defense.
Other than the three games with Cincy, KC also played against Buffalo this year.
The game was in KC.
The Chiefs lost 24-20.
My Play was posted On Sunday night.
Line update. (4:45PM Tuesday)
KC now +1.5 or +2.
Mahomes?
UPDATE> Jan 25th. Mahomes listed as "Probable".
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